NFL Week 17 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Bills @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.3488	Patriots δ=10.7	Patriots -11½
Buccaneers @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.3432	Falcons δ=13.1	Falcons -12
49ers @ Rams	49ers ρ=1.3351	49ers* δ=20.3	49ers -10½
Steelers @ Browns	Steelers ρ=1.2433	Steelers* δ=11.4	Steelers -7
Panthers @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.2057	Saints δ=10.6	Saints -9½
Redskins @ Eagles	Eagles* ρ=1.2015	Eagles δ=6.9	Eagles -10
Lions @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1315	Packers δ=5.2	Lions -3½
Titans @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.1120	Texans δ=6.3	Titans -2½
Ravens @ Bengals	Ravens ρ=1.0686	Ravens* δ=5.2	Ravens -1½
Colts @ Jaguars	Jaguars ρ=1.0620	Jaguars δ=5.7	Jaguars -3½
Jets @ Dolphins	Dolphins* ρ=1.0577	Jets* δ=0.2	Dolphins -1
Seahawks @ Cardinals	Seahawks ρ=1.0525	Seahawks* δ=3.7	Cardinals -2½
Chiefs @ Broncos	Broncos* ρ=1.0496	Broncos δ=3.6	Broncos -3
Chargers @ Raiders	Chargers ρ=1.0440	Chargers* δ=5.0	Raiders -3
Bears @ Vikings	Bears ρ=1.0386	Bears* δ=7.7	Vikings -1
Cowboys @ Giants	Cowboys ρ=1.0093	Cowboys* δ=2.3	Giants -2½

Comments:

• At the moment, I can't find a line for Bears @ Vikings except "pick 'em". Perhaps they are waiting to see if Ponder will be able to play. Update: looks like I was right. Word has come out that Ponder will play, and suddenly there's a line.

• On the NFC side, the playoff teams are set, except for the NFC East winner. But there's still some jockeying for position to be done. The 49ers still need a win to clinch the #2 seed, and the Saints will want to win in case they don't. The Lions will need a win to clinch the #5 seed, and a trip to the NFC East champion. The #6 seed will have to go to the Saints (or possibly the 49ers) on wildcard weekend.

• The AFC has four teams vying for the final wildcard spot, which makes the Ravens @ Bengals game one of the most interesting matchups of the weekend. If the Bengals win, they're in (and also open up the door for the Steelers to win the AFC North and clinch the #2 seed). If the Bengals lose, it's a free-for-all for that last wildcard spot.

• The Packers and Texans are the only two playoff teams that have their seeds clinched, which means Lions @ Packers and Titans @ Texans are the games most likely to be affected by teams resting their starters.

• The 49ers get their widest spread of the season. They haven't won on the road by more than 8 points. Of course, they haven't played anyone near as bad as the Rams on the road, either.

NFL Week 16 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Raiders (+9)

ESPN likes to rank playoff-contenders (too) high, even if their last 4 games feature a 3-game losing streak, and an overtime win over the struggling Chiefs.

On the Bubble:

Speaking of overrated playoff contenders, the Titans (+7), are still alive for one of the AFC's wildcard spots.

APR gives the Lions (+6) a 5-spot bump for demolishing the Chargers, but ESPN's 2-spot bump is enough to keep them on the bubble.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-12)

As noted in this week's power rankings, the Dolphins have five losses by 3 points or less, including this week at the Patriots. I'll stipulate that APR has them ranked too high at #12, but they don't belong in the bottom 12, where ESPN has them, either.

Seahawks (-9)

As noted earlier, the Seahawks have been playing tough this year, and took the NFC's (presumed) #2 seed to the wire on Sunday. Again, APR has them too high at #9, but the Seahawks have played as good as or better than some of the teams ESPN has above them (Eagles, Jets, Titans, Raiders).

Eagles (-9)

Good news for the Eagles: Michael Vick is healthy, the defense is finally coming together, they've put together a 3-game winning streak, and they're only one win behind the division-leading Giants. The bad news, of course, is this is all too little, too late.

On the bubble:

Nobody closer than Vikings and Cardinals (-5)

Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:

49ers @ Seahawks
Rams @ Steelers
Browns @ Ravens
Dolphins @ Patriots
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Cardinals @ Bengals
Jaguars @ Titans
Bears @ Packers
Falcons @ Saints

Wrong:

Broncos @ Bills

One of the overlooked aspects of the Broncos winning streak has been the emergence of Von Miller as a major force for their defense. But in the last two games, Von Miller has been a non-factor, and (probably not coincidentally), they've allowed 40+ points in each game. It's also no surprise that the style of offense they play with Tim Tebow doesn't do well in high scoring games.

Texans @ Colts

The Texans' numbers for this game look pretty good: T.J. Yates was 13/16 for 132 yards and no picks. Arian Foster ran for 158 yards. But because of penalties, sacks, and a turnover, too many of their drives ended either with a field goal, or no score at all, and that left the door open for the Colts offense to win the game on a late touchdown.

Giants @ Jets

The Jets just couldn't move the ball on offense. They only had 4 drives longer than 22 yards, only one of those ended in a score. It wasn't a great game for the Giants, either (they were 4 of 15 converting 3rd downs, and Eli Manning only completed 9 passes). But it was enough to get by the Jets.

Vikings @ Redskins

The Redskins had more yards and more first downs than the Vikings in this game. But they also had more penalty yards, and more incompletions than the Vikings. The result was they mostly settled for field goals, while the Vikings were driving for touchdowns. As a result, the Redskins were playing catch-up most of the game, including when time finally expired.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-2, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Raiders (SRS) @ Chiefs (APR, Line)

Kyle Orton lead the Chiefs offense to another 400+ yard game (for just the 3rd time this season). But two interceptions and 88 penalty yards meant that (like last week) those yards didn't translate into a lot of points. The Chiefs only tied the game on a late touchdown, and in overtime, the Raiders won the toss, and one long completion got them well within Janikowski's field goal range.

Chargers (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)

I think APR has the Chargers overrated—they only broke their 6-game losing streak when they reached perhaps the softest part of their schedule, culminating with a win over the can't-win-on-the-road Ravens. This held the Chargers up in APR's rankings long enough to give them a slight edge over the Lions, who slumped in the rankings due to a 4-5 streak.

Eagles (APR) @ Cowboys (SRS, Line)

When the Giants' victory over the Jets went final late in the first quarter of this game, it eliminated the Eagles from the playoffs, and meant that the NFC East would come down to Sunday's Cowboys @ Giants game.

Totals

SRS again closes to ½ a game of the Line.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	10-6	141-82-1	63.2%
SRS	11-5	146-77-1	65.4%
Line	10-6	147-77-0	65.6%

Week 16 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.0428 (LW × 0.9898)	12-3	Won by 3 vs Dolphins
2 (↑1)	49ers	1.0343 (LW × 1.0130)	12-3	Won by 2 @ Seahawks
3 (↓1)	Packers	1.0253 (LW × 1.0003)	14-1	Won by 14 vs Bears
4 (↑2)	Saints	1.0231 (LW × 1.0442)	12-3	Won by 29 vs Falcons
5 (↓1)	Steelers	1.0091 (LW × 1.0000)	11-4	Won by 27 vs Rams
6 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9798 (LW × 0.9832)	11-4	Won by 6 vs Browns
7 (-)	Falcons	0.9499 (LW × 0.9841)	9-6	Lost by 29 @ Saints
8 (↑2)	Eagles	0.9474 (LW × 1.0288)	7-8	Won by 13 @ Cowboys
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9424 (LW × 1.0026)	7-8	Lost by 2 vs 49ers
10 (↓2)	Texans	0.9280 (LW × 0.9697)	10-5	Lost by 3 @ Colts
11 (↑3)	Bengals	0.9169 (LW × 1.0092)	9-6	Won by 7 vs Cardinals
12 (↑4)	Dolphins	0.9137 (LW × 1.0186)	5-10	Lost by 3 @ Patriots
13 (↑5)	Lions	0.9061 (LW × 1.0219)	10-5	Won by 28 vs Chargers
14 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.9002 (LW × 0.9781)	8-7	Lost by 13 vs Eagles
15 (↑2)	Cardinals	0.8954 (LW × 1.0030)	7-8	Lost by 7 @ Bengals
16 (↑4)	Giants	0.8919 (LW × 1.0410)	8-7	Won by 15 @ Jets
17 (↓5)	Jets	0.8639 (LW × 0.9431)	8-7	Lost by 15 vs Giants
18 (↓5)	Broncos	0.8621 (LW × 0.9428)	8-7	Lost by 26 @ Bills
19 (↓4)	Chargers	0.8592 (LW × 0.9543)	7-8	Lost by 28 @ Lions
20 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8485 (LW × 1.0185)	6-9	Won by 32 vs Buccaneers
21 (↓2)	Bears	0.8459 (LW × 0.9724)	7-8	Lost by 14 @ Packers
22 (↑1)	Titans	0.8345 (LW × 1.0108)	8-7	Won by 6 vs Jaguars
23 (↑1)	Raiders	0.8230 (LW × 1.0065)	8-7	Won by 3 @ Chiefs
24 (↓3)	Chiefs	0.8213 (LW × 0.9634)	6-9	Lost by 3 vs Raiders
25 (↑3)	Vikings	0.8145 (LW × 1.0236)	3-12	Won by 7 @ Redskins
26 (↑1)	Browns	0.8117 (LW × 1.0169)	4-11	Lost by 6 @ Ravens
27 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.8023 (LW × 0.9834)	4-11	Lost by 6 @ Titans
28 (↓2)	Redskins	0.7885 (LW × 0.9787)	5-10	Lost by 7 vs Vikings
29 (-)	Rams	0.7747 (LW × 1.0019)	2-13	Lost by 27 @ Steelers
30 (-)	Bills	0.7731 (LW × 1.0165)	6-9	Won by 26 vs Broncos
31 (↑1)	Colts	0.7554 (LW × 1.0397)	2-13	Won by 3 vs Texans
32 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.7072 (LW × 0.9703)	4-11	Lost by 32 @ Panthers

Comments:

• It seems like this was more of a "lose and you're out" weekend, rather than a "win and you're in". The Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, and Chargers were all eliminated by losing, and the Jets' loss puts them very much on the outside looking in.

• The Falcons have the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Lions. They also have a home game against the lost-9-in-a-row Buccaneers, but at one game back of the Lions, they will also need the Lions to lose to the nothing-much-to-play-for Packers next week, or they will be on the road in the Super Dome for a rematch with the Saints on Wild Card Weekend.

• Which means the Lions are a win away from clinching a trip to the (presumably) much weaker NFC East winner. The Lions beat the Cowboys week 4 in one of the Cowboys biggest melt-downs of the season.

• After hitting an arrowhead-shaped speed bump last week, the Packers clinched the NFC's #1 seed, and (for the first time in franchise history) a 14-win season.

• The Packers' defense has held their opponent under 400 yards just 5 times this season, and only twice since mid-October. Their high-powered offense is going to have to carry the load in the playoffs this time around.

• APR has the Dolphins ranked at #12. They have five losses by 3 points or less. Of course, their other five losses are by 10 points or more. If they can get a decent quarterback, and keep him healty all season long, they could have a good chance to make a playoff run next year.

NFL Week 16 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Texans @ Colts	Texans ρ=1.3171	Texans* δ=18.9	Texans -5½
Rams @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.3052	Steelers δ=15.7	Steelers -17
Browns @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.2485	Ravens δ=12.7	Ravens -13½
Broncos @ Bills	Broncos ρ=1.2023	Broncos* δ=0.9	Broncos -2½
Bears @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1782	Packers δ=9.0	Packers -13
Dolphins @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1744	Patriots δ=8.1	Patriots -10
Buccaneers @ Panthers	Panthers* ρ=1.1431	Panthers δ=7.0	Panthers -7½
49ers @ Seahawks	49ers ρ=1.0863	49ers* δ=8.6	49ers -1½
Giants @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0692	Jets δ=3.2	Jets -2½
Raiders @ Chiefs	Chiefs* ρ=1.0428	Raiders* δ=4.3	Chiefs -1
Cardinals @ Bengals	Bengals* ρ=1.0178	Bengals δ=2.8	Bengals -4
Chargers @ Lions	Chargers ρ=1.0155	Lions δ=2.2	Lions -1½
Falcons @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.0151	Saints δ=4.6	Saints -7
Vikings @ Redskins	Redskins* ρ=1.0125	Redskins δ=4.0	Redskins -6½
Jaguars @ Titans	Titans* ρ=1.0120	Titans δ=3.8	Titans -8
Eagles @ Cowboys	Eagles ρ=1.0006	Cowboys δ=0.6	Cowboys -1

Comments:

• Lots of complicated playoff scenarios this week. The Falcons and Lions are the only teams with "win and in" scenarios.

• The Packers will clinch the top NFC seed with a win this week. And if they can't beat the Bears without Cutler, Forte, and Knox, the Packers could be in for a very short, very ugly playoff run.

• If the Colts defense shows up again this week, and they get some production out of their running game—could they really play spoiler to the Texans bye-week hopes? Given how awful the Colts have played (other than last Sunday), I'll have to file that under "I'll believe it when I see it".

• Not so long ago, it looked like the 49ers would have an easy sweep of their division. Now they need to win out to stay ahead of the Saints for the remaining unclinched bye-week, which includes a trip to play the recently resurgent Seahawks in their home stadium. If you're looking for an upset pick this week, this game could be a good choice.

• Thanks to virtually every other AFC power losing last week, the Patriots now have the inside track to that conference's #1 seed. But first they have to get by the resurgent power in their own division: the recently 5-2 Dolphins. The Patriots are tough at home, but 10 points seems like a lot to give for a team that couldn't hold the hapless Colts to more than 7...

NFL Week 15 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 15 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Ah, at last a little controversy!

Lions (+9)

In spite of their winning record, the Lions are just 4-5 in their last 9, and a narrow 1-point win (preserved by a last-second blocked field goal) against a struggling Raiders team doesn't suggest to me they've really turned the corner.

On the Bubble:

Nobody closer than the Raiders (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble:

The Eagles (-8) are another team that has lived and died by their defense. They are 6-0 when they hold their opponent to 19 points or fewer, and 0-8 when they don't.

The Dolphins (-7) are 5-2 since the start of November, including that 1-point loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

The Seahawks (-6) are also 5-2 since the start of November. They have wins over the Giants, Ravens, Eagles, and Bears.

2011 Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-6)

Right:

Jaguars @ Falcons
Browns @ Cardinals
Bengals @ Rams
Saints @ Vikings
Cowboys @ Buccaneers
Dolphins @ Bills
Patriots @ Broncos
Lions @ Raiders

Wrong:

Packers @ Chiefs

It turns out the formula to beat the Packers is pretty much the same as it was last year: play good pass defense, ball control on offense, and hope that Rodgers has an off game passing. The fact that Rodgers was missing his #1 receiver Greg Jennings made the "bad game passing" part a lot easier.

Titans @ Colts

This was really the Colts defense finally showing up for a game. They forced 3 turnovers, including a pick-6, and generally kept the injured (Matt Hasselbeck), ineffective (Chris Johnson), and inexperienced (Jake Locker) Titans well in check. The Colts running game put up more than 200 yards, which meant that Dan Orlovsky only had to throw 17 times. The result was the most points scored in the season (and only the third time over 20 points), along with the fewest points allowed (and only the second time less than 24).

Ravens @ Chargers

The Ravens' defense has just not played well on the road this season. 4 of their 5 worst games in terms of yards allowed were @ Tennesse, @ San Diego, @ Pittsburgh, and @ Seattle. The Ravens went 1-3 in those games, and it doesn't bode well for them when they have to play away from Baltimore in the playoffs (even if that turns out to be Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis).

Panthers @ Texans

It's been a pretty easy formula for the Texans this year: they're 10-0 when they hold their opponents under 20 points, and 0-4 when they don't. Maybe that didn't matter that much this week, as T.J. Yates looked a lot more like an inexperienced rookie in this game. One thing is for sure—the Texans can't rely on Yates to carry them to any wins, especially once the playoffs start.

Redskins @ Giants

The Redskins defense just shut down the Giants. The Giants had six drives 21 yards or shorter. Of the five sustained drives they had, three ended (respectively) with a missed field goal, an interception, and a failed 4th down try. The other two resulted in 10 points, which wasn't nearly enough to win the game.

Seahawks @ Bears

As I noted last week, the Seahawks have been quietly looking pretty solid this year. And the Bears, without Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and now Johnny Knox, were simply no match for them.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-2, SRS 1-1, Line 2-0)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

Well, I was wrong: the Eagles' defense had two good games in a row. The Jets only had one more yard rushing (94) than penalty yards (93), and Sanchez' passing (150 yards, 2 interceptions) was not able to make up the difference. And while the Eagles offense had a sloppy game (1 interception and 5 fumbles, 3 lost), they were able to move the ball efficiently enough when they did have it that the turnovers didn't much matter.

Steelers (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, Line)

Ben Roethlisberger's injured ankle was clearly a major issue, with 3 interceptions and 3 sacks at least partially attributable to his lack of mobility. Also, I suppose, the Steelers apparent complete lack of confidence in backup quarterbacks Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon.

Totals

Not the greatest week for anyone, although the Line doesn't fall back as far as APR or SRS.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	8-8	131-76-1	63.2%
SRS	9-7	135-72-1	65.1%
Line	10-6	137-71-0	65.8%