NFL Q3 Strength of Schedule

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Vikings	0.9644	21	0.8843
2	Ravens	0.9452	30	0.8579
3	Cardinals	0.9420	6	0.9080
4	Dolphins	0.9381	28	0.8632
5	Rams	0.9269	4	0.9100
6	Saints	0.9227	23	0.8796
7	Lions	0.9170	12	0.8957
8	Eagles	0.9143	13	0.8943
9	Falcons	0.9115	32	0.8438
10	Texans	0.9011	22	0.8801
11	Patriots	0.8997	24	0.8782
12	Buccaneers	0.8977	27	0.8653
13	49ers	0.8976	9	0.8996
14	Seahawks	0.8947	10	0.8988
15	Bears	0.8938	18	0.8909
16	Titans	0.8907	11	0.8978
17	Packers	0.8893	5	0.9082
18	Giants	0.8883	15	0.8920
19	Steelers	0.8861	31	0.8577
20	Jaguars	0.8840	7	0.9078
21	Colts	0.8801	26	0.8702
22	Redskins	0.8758	16	0.8911
23	Chiefs	0.8733	8	0.9000
24	Cowboys	0.8683	3	0.9146
25	Bengals	0.8645	29	0.8616
26	Chargers	0.8580	25	0.8736
27	Raiders	0.8545	19	0.8861
28	Browns	0.8534	17	0.8911
29	Bills	0.8528	14	0.8934
30	Panthers	0.8343	2	0.9251
31	Broncos	0.8319	20	0.8861
32	Jets	0.8058	1	0.9373

Comments:

• As usual, these numbers don't include the result of Thursday night's game.

• The surging Redskins are the only team left on the Ravens' schedule with a losing record. If they're anywhere as good as their 9-2 record, the Ravens will have plenty of chances to prove it.

• The Vikings are another team with a brutal remaining schedule. They may not make it to 8 wins this year.

• The Jets finally overtake the Broncos for easiest remaining schedule, which means they have at least a shot of getting to 9-7. The bad news is it'll probably take at least 10 wins to get a wildcard spot in the AFC this year.

• The Packers and Bears both have relatively easy remaining schedules; the NFC North is probably going to come down to their second match-up in week 15.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Texans @ Titans	Texans ρ=1.2372	Texans* δ=17.5	Texans -5½
Panthers @ Chiefs	Panthers ρ=1.2210	Panthers* δ=11.6	Panthers -2½
Patriots @ Dolphins	Patriots ρ=1.2197	Patriots* δ=17.1	Patriots -9
49ers @ Rams	49ers ρ=1.2196	49ers* δ=13.7	49ers -7
Eagles @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.1937	Cowboys δ=8.9	Cowboys -9½
Buccaneers @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.1390	Broncos δ=4.7	Broncos -7
Jaguars @ Bills	Bills* ρ=1.1309	Bills δ=4.6	Bills -6
Giants @ Redskins	Giants ρ=1.1208	Giants* δ=6.6	Giants -2½
Vikings @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1176	Packers δ=4.4	Packers -9
Browns @ Raiders	Browns ρ=1.1026	Browns* δ=9.4	Raiders -1½
Cardinals @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0967	Cardinals* δ=1.0	Jets -4½
Bengals @ Chargers	Bengals ρ=1.0742	Bengals* δ=1.9	Bengals -1
Saints @ Falcons	Falcons* ρ=1.0573	Falcons δ=4.7	Falcons -3½
Steelers @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0527	Ravens δ=4.6	Ravens -9
Seahawks @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0294	Bears δ=4.4	Bears -4½
Colts @ Lions	Colts* ρ=1.0055	Lions δ=5.7	Lions -4½

Comments:

• No line for Steelers @ Ravens at the moment; I'll update later in the week. Update: football locks is saying Ravens -9. Sounds good to me.

• It seems like there's a lot of match-ups this week to determine draft position. Does anyone really want to watch Browns @ Raiders?

• At least the Panthers should get their 4th win, and maybe even finally drop of the "Teams APR likes more than ESPN" list.

• SRS makes another rogue pick. This time I'm not sure that's totally wrong. Certainly, I think the Cardinals would have a decent chance to beat the Jets if the game was in Arizona instead of New Jersey.

• Should the Falcons be on upset alert again? My comments from week 10 still apply. And the Saints are 5-1 in their last 6 trips to Atlanta...

NFL: Week 12 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble

Another week, another close win for the Falcons (+6).

ESPN somehow gives the Colts (+6) a 5-spot bump on their less-than-dominating win over the 4-7 Bills.

The Ravens (+6) have amassed a 9-2 record, but it's really not a good sign they played behind the 4-7 Chargers most of the game, and needed to convert 4th and 29 just to get to overtime.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-7)

The Panthers finally found another team they could beat. And some of their early-season based power is finally getting to the fall-off part of APR's weighting curve.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than the Broncos (-5).

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-4)

Right:

Texans @ Lions
Patriots @ Jets
Broncos @ Chiefs
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Ravens @ Chargers
49ers @ Saints
Vikings @ Bears
Raiders @ Bengals

Wrong:

Redskins @ Cowboys

The Cowboys followed what is getting to be a familiar script: turnovers and bad defense let their opponent sprint out to an early lead. Some late-game heroics made things interesting towards the end, but ultimately fell short.

Seahawks @ Dolphins

The Seahawks' defense gave up 435 yards to the Dolphins; only the Patriots gained more on them this season. Which is bad news for a team that's 2-5 when they give up 13 or more points.

Steelers @ Browns

The Steelers had 3 interceptions and 5 lost fumbles. Even the Browns can get a win when you spot them 8 turnovers.

Titans @ Jaguars

Chad Henne may not be a great quarterback, but it's starting to look like he's solidly better than Blaine Gabbert. Henne has led the Jaguars to their two highest-scoring results of the season, and their second win.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-1, SRS: 1-3, Line: 2-2)

Rams (APR) @ Cardinals (SRS, Line)

Ryan Lindley had some decent first-half drives, and actually managed a half-time lead. But four interceptions, including a couple of pick-6s, was way more than the Cardinals were able to overcome.

Panthers (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

I almost wonder if I misread the line when I was doing the picks last week. The Panthers aren't a very good team, but the Eagles (particularly their defense) are just awful.

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

The Packers continue to have many of the same issues that bounced them out of the playoffs last January: the offensive line barely slowed the Giants' pass rush, and the Packers' defense couldn't buy a stop. Even when they get all their playmakers back on the field and up to speed, the Packers' o-line issues may be a deal-breaker for another Super Bowl run.

Bills (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)

Like I said in the game picks, it would've been a shock for the Bills to win this. But they did manage to pull within a touchdown in the 4th quarter, and had a couple of chances to tie the game (and might have had a third, except their defense couldn't stop the Colts from running out the final 3:22 of the game).

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			97	-	62	-	1	60.9%
SRS	9	-	7			95	-	64	-	1	60.0%
Line	10	-	6			105	-	54	-	1	65.9%

NFL: Week 12 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Patriots	1.0561 (LW × 1.0195)	8-3	Won by 30 @ Jets
2 (↓1)	Broncos	1.0479 (LW × 0.9927)	8-3	Won by 8 @ Chiefs
3 (-)	49ers	1.0370 (LW × 1.0066)	8-2-1	Won by 10 @ Saints
4 (↑1)	Texans	1.0172 (LW × 0.9931)	10-1	Won by 3 @ Lions
5 (↑2)	Bears	0.9934 (LW × 1.0109)	8-3	Won by 18 vs Vikings
6 (↑4)	Giants	0.9855 (LW × 1.0394)	7-4	Won by 28 vs Packers
7 (↓3)	Packers	0.9854 (LW × 0.9616)	7-4	Lost by 28 @ Giants
8 (-)	Falcons	0.9684 (LW × 0.9921)	10-1	Won by 1 @ Buccaneers
9 (↓3)	Seahawks	0.9650 (LW × 0.9740)	6-5	Lost by 3 @ Dolphins
10 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9613 (LW × 1.0093)	9-2	Won by 3 @ Chargers
11 (-)	Buccaneers	0.9200 (LW × 0.9925)	6-5	Lost by 1 vs Falcons
12 (-)	Saints	0.9159 (LW × 0.9890)	5-6	Lost by 10 vs 49ers
13 (-)	Steelers	0.9132 (LW × 0.9939)	6-5	Lost by 6 @ Browns
14 (↑3)	Bengals	0.9100 (LW × 1.0285)	6-5	Won by 24 vs Raiders
15 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8817 (LW × 0.9654)	6-5	Lost by 18 @ Bears
16 (↑3)	Colts	0.8809 (LW × 1.0258)	7-4	Won by 7 vs Bills
17 (↓2)	Cowboys	0.8805 (LW × 0.9735)	5-6	Lost by 7 vs Redskins
18 (↑3)	Redskins	0.8793 (LW × 1.0295)	5-6	Won by 7 @ Cowboys
19 (↓3)	Lions	0.8761 (LW × 0.9882)	4-7	Lost by 3 vs Texans
20 (↑4)	Dolphins	0.8658 (LW × 1.0180)	5-6	Won by 3 vs Seahawks
21 (↓1)	Panthers	0.8650 (LW × 1.0109)	3-8	Won by 8 @ Eagles
22 (↓4)	Jets	0.8516 (LW × 0.9815)	4-7	Lost by 30 vs Patriots
23 (↑2)	Rams	0.8503 (LW × 1.0200)	4-6-1	Won by 14 @ Cardinals
24 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8471 (LW × 0.9934)	4-7	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
25 (↓2)	Bills	0.8429 (LW × 0.9903)	4-7	Lost by 7 @ Colts
26 (↑2)	Browns	0.8375 (LW × 1.0388)	3-8	Won by 6 vs Steelers
27 (↓1)	Titans	0.8222 (LW × 0.9914)	4-7	Lost by 5 @ Jaguars
28 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.7765 (LW × 0.9381)	4-7	Lost by 14 vs Rams
29 (-)	Raiders	0.7595 (LW × 0.9872)	3-8	Lost by 24 @ Bengals
30 (↑1)	Jaguars	0.7453 (LW × 1.0162)	2-9	Won by 5 vs Titans
31 (↓1)	Eagles	0.7376 (LW × 0.9705)	3-8	Lost by 8 vs Panthers
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7085 (LW × 1.0109)	1-10	Lost by 8 vs Broncos

Comments:

• The Texans need another 4th-quarter come-back and overtime to beat a lesser team. The Lions are better than the Jaguars, but still, it's really not a good trend for the supposedly-best team in the AFC.

• The Ravens are another AFC team with a record that seems a lot better than how they're playing. They only managed a win this week because the Chargers are really, really bad.

• My usual rule of thumb is that once it gets to be Thanksgiving, any team that is two or more games out of a playoff spot is done. That eliminates half the field on the AFC side.

• As long as Ben Roethlisberger can't play, the Steelers seem almost certain to drop out of contention. And even if he does come back, I wonder how effective he can be if he's not 100%.

• So, apparently the Seahawks are upset about a bad call that cost them a game. But, as they say, in the long run these things even out.

NFL Week 12 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Broncos @ Chiefs	Broncos ρ=1.5063	Broncos δ=24.0	Broncos -10½
Patriots @ Jets	Patriots ρ=1.1938	Patriots* δ=14.4	Patriots -7
Seahawks @ Dolphins	Seahawks ρ=1.1649	Seahawks* δ=11.4	Seahawks -3
Texans @ Lions	Texans ρ=1.1554	Texans* δ=10.1	Texans -3
Raiders @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.1499	Bengals δ=11.3	Bengals -8
Steelers @ Browns	Steelers ρ=1.1396	Steelers* δ=5.6	Steelers -1
Titans @ Jaguars	Titans ρ=1.1307	Titans* δ=3.6	Titans -2½
Panthers @ Eagles	Panthers ρ=1.1259	Panthers* δ=6.6	Eagles -2
Ravens @ Chargers	Ravens ρ=1.1168	Ravens* δ=5.2	Ravens -1½
49ers @ Saints	49ers ρ=1.1124	49ers* δ=12.6	49ers -1½
Packers @ Giants	Packers ρ=1.0808	Packers* δ=1.9	Giants -2½
Vikings @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0760	Bears δ=7.2	Bears -2½
Redskins @ Cowboys	Cowboys* ρ=1.0589	Cowboys δ=0.4	Cowboys -3
Falcons @ Buccaneers	Falcons ρ=1.0530	Falcons* δ=1.6	Falcons -1
Bills @ Colts	Colts* ρ=1.0088	Bills* δ=0.7	Colts -3
Rams @ Cardinals	Rams ρ=1.0071	Cardinals δ=1.4	Cardinals -1

Comments:

• A lot of really close lines this week. Even SRS is making a rogue pick (though even I would be shocked to see the Colts lose to the Bills).

• The lines for the Bears and Steelers may move around some this week, depending on how their respective quarterback situations develop.

• The Giants are 1-4 this season when the defense doesn't get at least 3 turnovers. If the Packers can hang onto the ball (and the receivers catch it when it comes their way), they could have a decent chance for an upset.

• The way the Falcons have been playing lately, I'm not sure why they aren't flat-out underdogs going to Tampa Bay to face the surging Buccaneers (5-1 in their last 6). This will be just the 2nd time this season the Falcons have faced a team that (currently) has a winning record.

NFL Week 11 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 11 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

ESPN drops the Colts back to Earth after they got dismantled by the Patriots, which just leaves:

On the bubble

The Falcons (+6) continue to rack up close wins against lesser opponents. I've been watching APR long enough to know that's not a good sign for a happy ending to the season.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-9)

The Panthers are, in some sense, a cautionary tale of what the Falcons could be, with only a few missed plays. They've both played a lot of games that were close in the 4th quarter. But unlike the Falcons, the Panthers just can't find a way to hold onto a 4th-quarter lead.

On the bubble

Patriots, Seahawks, Broncos (-6)