NFL Q3 Strength of Schedule

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Vikings	0.9644	21	0.8843
2	Ravens	0.9452	30	0.8579
3	Cardinals	0.9420	6	0.9080
4	Dolphins	0.9381	28	0.8632
5	Rams	0.9269	4	0.9100
6	Saints	0.9227	23	0.8796
7	Lions	0.9170	12	0.8957
8	Eagles	0.9143	13	0.8943
9	Falcons	0.9115	32	0.8438
10	Texans	0.9011	22	0.8801
11	Patriots	0.8997	24	0.8782
12	Buccaneers	0.8977	27	0.8653
13	49ers	0.8976	9	0.8996
14	Seahawks	0.8947	10	0.8988
15	Bears	0.8938	18	0.8909
16	Titans	0.8907	11	0.8978
17	Packers	0.8893	5	0.9082
18	Giants	0.8883	15	0.8920
19	Steelers	0.8861	31	0.8577
20	Jaguars	0.8840	7	0.9078
21	Colts	0.8801	26	0.8702
22	Redskins	0.8758	16	0.8911
23	Chiefs	0.8733	8	0.9000
24	Cowboys	0.8683	3	0.9146
25	Bengals	0.8645	29	0.8616
26	Chargers	0.8580	25	0.8736
27	Raiders	0.8545	19	0.8861
28	Browns	0.8534	17	0.8911
29	Bills	0.8528	14	0.8934
30	Panthers	0.8343	2	0.9251
31	Broncos	0.8319	20	0.8861
32	Jets	0.8058	1	0.9373

Comments:

• As usual, these numbers don't include the result of Thursday night's game.

• The surging Redskins are the only team left on the Ravens' schedule with a losing record. If they're anywhere as good as their 9-2 record, the Ravens will have plenty of chances to prove it.

• The Vikings are another team with a brutal remaining schedule. They may not make it to 8 wins this year.

• The Jets finally overtake the Broncos for easiest remaining schedule, which means they have at least a shot of getting to 9-7. The bad news is it'll probably take at least 10 wins to get a wildcard spot in the AFC this year.

• The Packers and Bears both have relatively easy remaining schedules; the NFC North is probably going to come down to their second match-up in week 15.

NFL Q2 Strength of Schedule

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Vikings	0.9820	28	0.8642
2	Cardinals	0.9641	9	0.9219
3	Saints	0.9406	20	0.8774
4	Lions	0.9399	10	0.9211
5	Bears	0.9306	23	0.8739
6	49ers	0.9213	13	0.9135
7	Giants	0.9159	16	0.8873
8	Rams	0.9154	3	0.9484
9	Packers	0.9121	11	0.9170
10	Seahawks	0.9120	6	0.9293
11	Bills	0.9113	30	0.8585
12	Buccaneers	0.9096	27	0.8656
13	Ravens	0.9026	24	0.8732
14	Titans	0.9010	14	0.9087
15	Patriots	0.8975	18	0.8853
16	Redskins	0.8902	12	0.9167
17	Bengals	0.8898	29	0.8600
18	Browns	0.8887	25	0.8725
19	Eagles	0.8883	8	0.9252
20	Dolphins	0.8870	19	0.8827
21	Chiefs	0.8865	21	0.8763
22	Jaguars	0.8827	7	0.9252
23	Falcons	0.8822	31	0.8523
24	Cowboys	0.8818	1	0.9585
25	Colts	0.8795	22	0.8760
26	Texans	0.8717	15	0.8967
27	Chargers	0.8708	32	0.8497
28	Panthers	0.8705	2	0.9522
29	Jets	0.8625	4	0.9410
30	Steelers	0.8561	26	0.8699
31	Raiders	0.8504	17	0.8862
32	Broncos	0.8149	5	0.9340

Comments:

• These values do not include the result of the Thursday night Chiefs @ Chargers game.

• Like I said earlier, it doesn't get any easier for the Vikings. They've got the biggest swing from easiest played to hardest unplayed.

• The Packers have one of the 10-most difficult remaining schedules. But APR ranks it slightly easier than what they've already played, and the easiest of any team in the NFC North. If they can get healthy for the second half, they should have a chance to make a playoff run this year.

• The Falcons have one of the easier remaining schedules, but APR ranks it noticibly harder than what they've already played. I'll be surprised if the Falcons go unbeaten, but barring a pretty spectacular collapse, they're going to win the NFC South, and have an inside track for a bye week in the playoffs.

• The Bengals unplayed strength of schedule is ranked in the bottom half of the list, but it's still noticably harder than what they've played so far. And they still need 6 more wins to clinch a winning season.

• The Steelers haven't had the most impressive season so far this year, but with the rest of the AFC North struggling, they could leverage an easy schedule into the top spot in their division.

• The Broncos continue to have the easiest remaining schedule. Even with the Raiders one slot above them, I think the Broncos have a pretty clear shot to win the AFC West (assuming, of course, that Peyton Manning stays healthy).

NFL Q1 Strength of Schedule

This table is APR's first quarter strength of schedule results. Each team's "unplayed" strength of schedule was computed by combining the power index value of every team remaining on the schedule (using the week 4 power index values of each team). Similarly, the "played" strength of schedule was computed using the power index of teams already played.

A higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Lions	0.9797	17	0.9138
2	Rams	0.9658	13	0.9270
3	Bills	0.9422	29	0.8227
4	49ers	0.9418	19	0.8934
5	Seahawks	0.9404	10	0.9344
6	Cardinals	0.9378	2	0.9833
7	Vikings	0.9330	20	0.8816
8	Jets	0.9285	16	0.9194
9	Bears	0.9268	23	0.8670
10	Patriots	0.9225	15	0.9195
11	Packers	0.9214	11	0.9317
12	Titans	0.9048	5	0.9575
13	Redskins	0.9040	27	0.8267
14	Giants	0.9021	25	0.8333
15	Dolphins	0.9012	3	0.9784
16	Saints	0.8935	32	0.7879
17	Texans	0.8930	21	0.8802
18	Jaguars	0.8872	1	0.9851
19	Cowboys	0.8860	14	0.9241
20	Chiefs	0.8854	28	0.8232
21	Ravens	0.8832	9	0.9400
22	Browns	0.8817	8	0.9436
23	Bengals	0.8808	22	0.8735
24	Steelers	0.8723	18	0.8999
25	Colts	0.8682	7	0.9503
26	Panthers	0.8673	26	0.8319
27	Chargers	0.8543	31	0.8017
28	Buccaneers	0.8498	24	0.8345
29	Eagles	0.8497	6	0.9539
30	Raiders	0.8275	12	0.9282
31	Falcons	0.8270	30	0.8107
32	Broncos	0.8162	4	0.9705

Comments:

• More bad news for the Lions. Their schedule doesn't look that bad. I think it's just more there really aren't many easy opponents on it (and given the way the Lions lost to the Titans and Vikings, I'm not sure what would qualify as an easy opponent for them).

• It won't be getting easier for the Jets, either. They still have 3 more games against the NFC West, none of which look like push-overs anymore.

• The Bills have the biggest swing from easiest to hardest. Which is not good news for a team that's only beaten the Chiefs and Browns so far.

• Are the Eagles the best team in the NFC East? They're the only team (so far) to have a win outside the division and bad NFC South teams. If they can stop the turnovers, they could have an easy path to winning the NFC East.

• The Falcons are benefitting from a (so far) pretty weak division. APR has the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Saints all in the bottom 5 teams, and the Falcons sill have 5 divisional games left to play.

• The Broncos have the biggest swing from hardest to easiest. They have yet to play the Saints, Panthers, Chiefs (twice), Buccaneers, and Browns. So, yeah. Peyton Manning should have a chance to make another playoff run this year.

NFL Q3 Strength of Schedule

APR's strength of schedule (played and unplayed games) for each team, based on the week 12 power rankings. Note that this is not the same as the 'strength of schedule' metric mentioned in the official NFL tie breakers.

As usual, a higher value indicates a tougher schedule, lower values indicate an easier schedule.

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Browns	0.9888	23	0.8836
2	Rams	0.9737	14	0.8975
3	Colts	0.9704	12	0.9026
4	Chiefs	0.9601	25	0.8827
5	Panthers	0.9344	17	0.8932
6	Giants	0.9320	28	0.8814
7	Lions	0.9302	2	0.9231
8	Bengals	0.9300	27	0.8824
9	Vikings	0.9235	4	0.9177
10	Chargers	0.9163	7	0.9142
11	Raiders	0.9161	13	0.9010
12	Bills	0.9134	18	0.8929
13	Cardinals	0.9120	31	0.8705
14	Dolphins	0.9081	20	0.8874
15	Bears	0.9028	8	0.9131
16	Redskins	0.9022	32	0.8678
17	Falcons	0.8988	19	0.8877
18	Packers	0.8974	26	0.8826
19	Broncos	0.8954	9	0.9070
20	Saints	0.8894	30	0.8789
21	Seahawks	0.8878	11	0.9037
22	Eagles	0.8718	16	0.8936
23	Titans	0.8696	15	0.8963
24	Steelers	0.8671	10	0.9062
25	Buccaneers	0.8641	1	0.9439
26	Cowboys	0.8566	29	0.8803
27	Texans	0.8521	24	0.8829
28	Jaguars	0.8459	5	0.9167
29	Jets	0.8416	6	0.9164
30	49ers	0.8406	22	0.8858
31	Patriots	0.8187	21	0.8871
32	Ravens	0.8173	3	0.9198

Comments:

• The Giants, Lions, and Bengals are the playoff-contending teams with the most difficult remainint schedule. The Giants have the biggest swing from easiest to hardest.

• The Ravens, Patriots, 49ers, Jets, and Texans are the contending teams with the easiest remaining schedule. Which may not be the best news for the Ravens, who have not done well on the road against weak teams.

• APR ranks the Packers' strength-of-schedule for games played as 26th hardest. They have played some teams in the top 10 (Saints, Bears, and Lions), but they've also played a lot of teams in the bottom 10 (Chargers, Vikings, Panthers, and Rams).

NFL Q2 Strength of Schedule

APR's second quarter strength of schedule results, as computed using week 8's power index values. Both the strength of schedule for unplayed (on the left) and played (on the right) games is presented.

As usual, a higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Giants	0.9712	32	0.8469
2	Chargers	0.9541	22	0.8804
3	Dolphins	0.9535	20	0.8975
4	Lions	0.9512	10	0.9238
5	Vikings	0.9480	9	0.9246
6	Broncos	0.9359	7	0.9329
7	Packers	0.9299	24	0.8762
8	Bears	0.9214	2	0.9486
9	Buccaneers	0.9168	6	0.9348
10	Jets	0.9150	19	0.9043
11	Browns	0.9145	28	0.8692
12	Chiefs	0.9144	18	0.9103
13	Colts	0.9126	14	0.9170
14	Saints	0.9123	26	0.8749
15	Panthers	0.9113	16	0.9134
16	Raiders	0.9111	12	0.9206
17	Titans	0.9068	29	0.8681
18	Redskins	0.9067	23	0.8801
19	Steelers	0.9066	25	0.8760
20	Bengals	0.8986	31	0.8662
21	Cardinals	0.8961	21	0.8851
22	Rams	0.8957	1	0.9529
23	Seahawks	0.8911	13	0.9185
24	Ravens	0.8904	30	0.8679
25	Falcons	0.8764	4	0.9377
26	Eagles	0.8761	11	0.9215
27	Bills	0.8723	8	0.9302
28	Cowboys	0.8692	3	0.9397
29	Patriots	0.8667	17	0.9129
30	Texans	0.8622	27	0.8735
31	Jaguars	0.8536	5	0.9354
32	49ers	0.8432	15	0.9153

Comments:

• If this is anything close to reality, the Giants are going to have a tough time hanging on to first place in the NFC East. They have a double-whammy of a very tough schedule remaining, along with two division opponents (the Eagles and Cowboys) with very easy remaining schedules.

• Yeah, things are looking pretty grim for the Dolphins right now. Their best chance to avoid 0-16 will come a week from Sunday when they face the "Beck or Grossman?" Redskins.

• Every team remaining on the Packers' schedule has a winning record except for the Vikings. On the other hand, the Lions and Giants are the only teams better than 4-3, so it's not that bad.

• The NFL seems to have back-loaded a lot of divisional games. The 49ers have only played one so far, which means more than half of their remaining games will be against the NFC West teams that are a combined 4-17.

• The AFC East could actually come down to the wire in a race between the Bills and Patriots. They don't play their rematch game until week 17.

NFL Q1 Strength of Schedule

This table is APR's first quarter strength of schedule results. Each team's "unplayed" strength of schedule was computed by combining the power index value of every team remaining on the schedule (using the week 4 power index values of each team). Similarly, the "played" strength of schedule was computed using the power index of teams already played.

A higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Vikings	0.9927	17	0.8934
2	Chargers	0.9920	22	0.8565
3	Buccaneers	0.9761	31	0.8268
4	Lions	0.9715	24	0.8539
5	Giants	0.9709	32	0.8199
6	Dolphins	0.9707	13	0.9345
7	Colts	0.9541	23	0.8565
8	Falcons	0.9437	30	0.8299
9	Chiefs	0.9402	11	0.9501
10	Eagles	0.9344	29	0.8313
11	Jets	0.9308	7	0.9828
12	Bills	0.9192	8	0.9793
13	Broncos	0.9190	1	1.0652
14	Panthers	0.9147	10	0.9579
15	Rams	0.9100	15	0.9251
16	Bears	0.9055	3	0.9940
17	Steelers	0.8982	27	0.8435
18	Texans	0.8975	28	0.8362
19	Browns	0.8951	25	0.8496
20	Redskins	0.8928	26	0.8455
21	Raiders	0.8924	2	1.0373
22	Patriots	0.8851	14	0.9325
23	Titans	0.8847	16	0.9061
24	Packers	0.8747	9	0.9680
25	Seahawks	0.8735	20	0.8657
26	Jaguars	0.8689	4	0.9931
27	Cowboys	0.8637	5	0.9907
28	Bengals	0.8538	12	0.9454
29	Ravens	0.8527	19	0.8675
30	Cardinals	0.8464	21	0.8616
31	49ers	0.8441	18	0.8709
32	Saints	0.8439	6	0.9887

Comments:

• The teams with the top 5 hardest remaining schedules are all seeing significant increases in the power of their opponents. That's going to be particularly bad news for the Vikings, who won't find it easy to put their ugly 0-4 start behind them.

• The Lions are one of those teams with a bunch of tough opponents left on their schedule. They're going to have trouble if they keep using that "fall behind early, catch up late" strategy to win games.

• The Packers have a couple of top-10 teams (Lions and Raiders) left on their schedule. But everyone else is ranked #16 or lower, including four in the bottom 10 (Falcons, Chiefs, Vikings, and Rams).

• The Packers may be glad to have the head-to-head tie break over the Saints, though. The Saints have the easiest schedule remaining of any team, with all but two of their opponents in the bottom half of the rankings, including the Vikings (#27), Colts (#31), and Rams (#32).

• Could the Bengals sneak into the playoffs this year? I don't think they can get by the Ravens to win the AFC North, but a 2-2 start, and an easy remaining schedule might be enough for one of the wildcard spots.

• Good news for the Cowboys, too. In spite of all the drama, they're still just a game out of first place in the NFC East, with the easiest remaining schedule of any team in that division.

• I'm still not sold on the 49ers. But given their easy remaining schedule, and the fact that they've swept the Cardinals 3 of the last 4 seasons, they at least have the inside track to win the NFC West right now.

NFL: Week 13 Strength of Schedule

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Bears	0.9761	23	0.8643
2	Bills	0.9592	1	0.9293
3	Bengals	0.9591	4	0.9233
4	Packers	0.9458	17	0.8946
5	Saints	0.9337	31	0.8345
6	Vikings	0.9299	10	0.9054
7	Giants	0.9256	26	0.8634
8	Panthers	0.9235	18	0.8907
9	Patriots	0.9231	12	0.9041
10	Jets	0.9204	11	0.9049
11	Dolphins	0.9166	2	0.9273
12	Lions	0.9160	3	0.9270
13	Redskins	0.9070	7	0.9109
14	Browns	0.9011	6	0.9171
15	Eagles	0.8937	15	0.8984
16	Texans	0.8908	9	0.9059
17	Seahawks	0.8887	30	0.8364
18	Titans	0.8874	14	0.8990
19	Colts	0.8838	19	0.8897
20	Chiefs	0.8739	29	0.8386
21	Ravens	0.8735	13	0.8990
22	Cowboys	0.8724	8	0.9066
23	Raiders	0.8708	28	0.8533
24	Jaguars	0.8677	21	0.8872
25	Rams	0.8577	32	0.8170
26	Buccaneers	0.8439	24	0.8642
27	Steelers	0.8386	5	0.9212
28	Broncos	0.8334	20	0.8878
29	Chargers	0.8203	27	0.8598
30	49ers	0.8051	25	0.8636
31	Cardinals	0.7969	22	0.8692
32	Falcons	0.7796	16	0.8956

Comments:

• This was computed using the Week 13 power rankings. As before, the "unplayed" strength is a combination of the powers of teams for unplayed games, and the "played" strength is from powers of teams for played games.

• In the Week 10 Strength of Schedule I posted, the strength of upcoming games was a lot more compressed (0.83 to 0.96).

• I've bolded all the likely playoff teams, along with those that seem like they have a chance to get in (obvioulsly not all of them will).

• The Bears' and Packers' remaining schedule is pretty tough—in both cases, 3 of their four remaining games are against teams contending for the playoffs (including each other in week 17).

• Even with a weaker schedule, the Chargers are in trouble. If they win out, they'll still need help to win the AFC West, or more help to qualify for a wildcard.

• The Colts' chances pretty much come down to beating the Jaguars week 15 (and taking care of business with the Titans). If they do that, they'll win the AFC South.

NFL: Week 10 Strength of Schedule

Update: Thanks to the magic of JavaScript, the 'SOS Played' and 'SOS Unplayed' columns are now sortable if you are JavaScript-enabled. Just click on the link at the top of the column to sort (or reverse sort, if already sorted) on that column.

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Bears	0.9596	29	0.8557
2	Texans	0.9543	16	0.9017
3	Bengals	0.9371	6	0.9236
4	Bills	0.9337	3	0.9438
5	Panthers	0.9276	22	0.8821
6	Patriots	0.9265	9	0.9168
7	Colts	0.9214	24	0.8735
8	Dolphins	0.9197	2	0.9459
9	Packers	0.9195	18	0.8946
10	Giants	0.9122	28	0.8632
11	Vikings	0.9093	11	0.9131
12	Jaguars	0.9093	19	0.8931
13	Lions	0.9092	10	0.9156
14	Cowboys	0.9088	14	0.9063
15	Raiders	0.9084	26	0.8641
16	Buccaneers	0.9005	30	0.8505
17	Jets	0.8996	12	0.9101
18	Redskins	0.8913	8	0.9174
19	Saints	0.8885	31	0.8456
20	Titans	0.8879	17	0.9014
21	Steelers	0.8823	4	0.9321
22	Eagles	0.8759	13	0.9097
23	Chargers	0.8757	21	0.8834
24	Chiefs	0.8722	25	0.8731
25	Broncos	0.8698	5	0.9248
26	Browns	0.8694	1	0.9481
27	Rams	0.8687	32	0.8395
28	Seahawks	0.8619	27	0.8633
29	Ravens	0.8613	7	0.9201
30	49ers	0.8599	23	0.8773
31	Falcons	0.8344	15	0.9029
32	Cardinals	0.8285	20	0.8851

Comments:

• I've been meaning to get to this since week 4. I finally made some time to get it done.

• This was computed using the week 10 power rankings. The "played" SOS figure is the combination of the power for all opposing teams in games played through week 10; the "to play" is the combination of all opponents to be played. Division opponents are included twice when they appear twice.

• If you hover over each team name, you should see (as tooltip text) the ratio of unplayed over played strength of schedule, as well as the ranking of that ratio from 1 (highest) to 32 (lowest). A high ratio means the upcoming games will be much harder; a low ratio means upcoming games should be easier.

• Biggest swings from easiest played to hardest to play: 1) Bears, 2) Buccaneers, 3) Texans, 4) Giants, 5) Colts.

• Biggest swings from hardest to easiest: 32) Browns, 31) Falcons, 30) Ravens, 29) Cardinals, 28) Broncos.

• Based on this, it looks like the Falcons and Eagles have the inside track on the top two seeds in the NFC (although the Packers do have the head-to-head tie breaker over the Eagles, if it comes down to that).

• And for the top AFC seeds, it looks like the Ravens and... who? Titans? Chiefs?! Jets? Too soon to say, I think.

NFL Strength of Remaining Schedule, Q3

2009 Navigation Links

Strength of remaining schedule, Q1
Strength of remaining schedule, Q2

As usual, higher index values represent better teams, so a higher value here means a more difficult schedule.

Rank	Team	W-L	Strength of Schedule
1	Carolina Panthers	4-7	4.0613
2	Washington Redskins	3-8	4.0045
3	Miami Dolphins	5-6	3.9648
4	Buffalo Bills	4-7	3.9493
5	Dallas Cowboys	8-3	3.9082
6	Jacksonville Jaguars	6-5	3.7744
7	Atlanta Falcons	6-5	3.6500
8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-10	3.6338
9	Indianapolis Colts	11-0	3.6006
10	New York Jets	5-6	3.5575
11	Tennessee Titans	5-6	3.4888
12	Philadelphia Eagles	7-4	3.4339
13	Detroit Lions	2-9	3.3850
14	St. Louis Rams	1-10	3.3808
15	New York Giants	6-5	3.3658
16	Kansas City Chiefs	3-8	3.3019
17	Cincinnati Bengals	8-3	3.2913
18	Cleveland Browns	1-10	3.2726
19	Seattle Seahawks	4-7	3.2382
20	New England Patriots	7-4	3.1977
21	Green Bay Packers	7-4	3.1932
22	Denver Broncos	7-4	3.1824
23	Minnesota Vikings	10-1	3.1199
24	San Diego Chargers	8-3	3.1153
25	Oakland Raiders	3-8	3.0949
26	Houston Texans	5-6	2.9780
27	Chicago Bears	4-7	2.8835
28	New Orleans Saints	11-0	2.7998
29	Pittsburgh Steelers	6-5	2.7589
30	Arizona Cardinals	7-4	2.7422
31	Baltimore Ravens	6-5	2.5340
32	San Francisco 49ers	5-6	2.4367

Comments

• CBS Sports has a page detailing the playoff race as it currently stands. Note they also have a "Scenarios" page which details what needs to happen for teams close to clinching to get in.

• The Cowboys have the hardest remaining schedule of any playoff contender. With just a one-game lead over the Eagles, and a propensity for their offense to struggle, they've got a long way to go to clinch a playoff spot.

• The Colts' 11-0 record has definitely been living in the shadow of the Saints equal result. But by APR's measure, the Colts have played a much tougher schedule, which should be worth something in the playoffs.

• The Titans have actually managed to stir up some talk of making a playoff run. The bad news is they made that 5-0 run through a very soft part of their schedule. They will likely need at least 4 more wins to qualify for the playoffs, which means they can only have one loss in upcoming games against the Colts, Dolphins, and Chargers.

NFL Strength Of Remaining Schedule, Q2

2009 Navigation Links

Strength of remaining Schedule, Q1 (which tells how this was computed)

As usual, higher index values represent better teams, so a higher value here means a more difficult schedule.

Rank	Team	W-L	Strength of Schedule
1	Carolina Panthers	3-4	4.3456
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-7	4.3061
3	New England Patriots	5-2	4.0906
4	Washington Redskins	2-5	4.0740
5	Indianapolis Colts	7-0	3.8874
6	St. Louis Rams	1-7	3.8011
7	New York Giants	5-3	3.6067
8	New York Jets	4-4	3.5338
9	Buffalo Bills	3-5	3.5337
10	Philadelphia Eagles	5-2	3.4641
11	Houston Texans	5-3	3.4365
12	Jacksonville Jaguars	3-4	3.4132
13	Miami Dolphins	3-4	3.3594
14	Kansas City Chiefs	1-6	3.3173
15	Tennessee Titans	1-6	3.2975
16	Oakland Raiders	2-6	3.2894
17	Detroit Lions	1-6	3.2508
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	5-2	3.2210
19	Chicago Bears	4-3	3.1773
20	Green Bay Packers	4-3	3.0444
21	Baltimore Ravens	4-3	3.0086
22	Atlanta Falcons	4-3	2.9599
23	Dallas Cowboys	5-2	2.9598
24	San Diego Chargers	4-3	2.9429
25	Minnesota Vikings	7-1	2.8700
26	Cleveland Browns	1-7	2.8087
27	Cincinnati Bengals	5-2	2.7977
28	New Orleans Saints	7-0	2.7356
29	Seattle Seahawks	2-5	2.7032
30	Denver Broncos	6-1	2.6358
31	San Francisco 49ers	3-4	2.5396
32	Arizona Cardinals	4-3	2.3448

Comments:

• It's not to early to talk about a first-round bye for the Saints: Football Outsiders' playoff odds give a combined probability of 88.5% the Saints will have the #1 or #2 seed. (Note these numbers are updated weekly, so if you look after Sunday, you will certainly see different results.)

• Football Outsiders' has the Colts as heavy favorites for a first-round bye as well. But they still have to play the Patriots, Ravens, Broncos, as well as the upstart Texans.

• Not that long ago the Giants were in control of their division. Now, after an 0-3 stretch, with a very tough schedule left to play, it could be very tough for them. Football Outsiders gives them a 41.4% chance to make the playoffs; I think that might be overly generous.

• The Browns are giving the Raiders a run for their money as the most disfunctional NFL franchise. Even with one of the easiest remaining schedules, I wonder if they can win another game. And speaking of the Browns and Raiders, the "Avert Your Eyes Bowl" takes place week 16 in Cleveland.

• The Cardinals and 49ers both have a very easy remaining schedule. The battle for the NFC West could come down to their week 14 matchup.

NFL Strength Of Remaining Schedule, Q1

2009 Navigation Links

Strength of remaining schedule, following week 4
Read this for a description of APR

How this was computed:

1. For each team, a list of teams was created, one for each opponent in all unplayed games (which means some division opponents are listed twice).

2. In this version, each team is replaced with its Week 4 Power Index value.

3. Each team's list of power index values are averaged together, giving something that hopefully represents the overall difficulty of the remaining schedule.

As usual, higher index values represent better teams, so a higher value here means a more difficult schedule.

Rank	Team	W-L	Strength of Schedule
1	St. Louis Rams	0-4	2.8959
2	Carolina Panthers	0-3	2.7617
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4	2.7390
4	Houston Texans	2-2	2.6898
5	Tennessee Titans	0-4	2.6456
6	Miami Dolphins	1-3	2.5771
7	Baltimore Ravens	3-1	2.5708
8	Chicago Bears	3-1	2.4990
9	New England Patriots	3-1	2.4864
10	Buffalo Bills	1-3	2.4365
11	New York Giants	4-0	2.4102
12	Detroit Lions	1-3	2.3797
13	Atlanta Falcons	2-1	2.3451
14	San Francisco 49ers	3-1	2.2481
15	Indianapolis Colts	4-0	2.2214
16	New York Jets	3-1	2.1956
17	Jacksonville Jaguars	2-2	2.1489
18	Seattle Seahawks	1-3	2.1433
19	Cincinnati Bengals	3-1	2.1232
20	Oakland Raiders	1-3	2.1072
21	Green Bay Packers	2-2	2.0912
22	Washington Redskins	2-2	2.0816
23	Minnesota Vikings	4-0	2.0599
24	Kansas City Chiefs	0-4	2.0486
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	2-2	2.0372
26	Denver Broncos	4-0	2.0276
27	Cleveland Browns	0-4	2.0178
28	Dallas Cowboys	2-2	1.9452
29	Philadelphia Eagles	2-1	1.8680
30	Arizona Cardinals	1-2	1.7541
31	San Diego Chargers	2-2	1.6990
32	New Orleans Saints	4-0	1.5663

Comments:

• No love for the Rams. They've got the Vikings, Colts, Saints, Cardinals (twice) and 49ers coming up. The good news (such as it is) is they've got some bottom-10 teams to play, like the Seahawks, Lions, and Titans(!), and so have at least a moderate chance of avoiding a winless season.

• With a 4-0 start, and a very easy remaining schedule, is it too soon to start talking about a bye week for the Saints? (Yeah, probably.)

• The Cardinals also have an easy schedule; the 49ers have some work to do before they can claim the NFC West crown.

• The Panthers and Buccaneers can't both go winless this season (assuming they don't both finish 0-14-2).

I'll take a look at this again after weeks 8 and 12.