How Upsets Were Determined
First, the power rankings for each team was determined, using the
first 16 weeks of play (the final week of games is left out to avoid
skewing the data with the results of games where teams are resting
their starters, or otherwise not trying).
However, unlike the weekly power rankings, which give more weight
to recent games than ones earlier in the season, the power rankings
for the season upsets are unweighted—all game results count
equally. This means that the matchup ratio values (ρ) below
will not correspond to the matchup ratios given in the respective
game pick posts.
Once the power rankings are computed, every game of the season is
picked using those rankings. The wrong picks are then sorted by
matchup ratio, with the games featuring the largest ratios featured
below.
Any game that is not a "real" upset (because a team is resting its
starters, or is indirectly affected by such) is removed from the
list.
Dishonorable Mention: some games that missed the top-10 cut
Week 14: The Jets defense held the Dolphins to just 10 points, but
that wasn't enough for their offense that only managed 6.
Week 3: Janikowski misses 3 field goals, and the resurgent Raiders
can't get past the struggling Cardinals.
Week 16: The Cowboys spot the Cardinals 21 points, and can't recover.
Week 4: Chris Johnson has a bad day, and Titans' turnovers give
the Broncos enough for a win.
Week 4: The Redskins knock Michael Vick out of the game, and Kevin
Kolb can't produce enough offense for the Eagles to pull out a win.
The Top 10 Upsets of the 2010 Season
- Week 7: Redskins 17, Bears 14 (ρ=1.1471)
The Bears' offense had probably their worst game of the season,
generating 7 punts, 6 turnovers, and 4 sacks. This game was only
close because McNabb threw a couple interceptions.
- Week 6: Dolphins 23, Packers 20 (OT) (ρ=1.1475)
The
The Packers have had one of the best defenses in the league this
year, giving up the fewest points of any team except the Steelers.
But in this game, the Packers' run defense struggled, which let the
Dolphins control the ball and keep it away from the Packers'
struggling offense.
- Week 14: Packers 3, Lions 7 (ρ=1.1595)
Easily the most egregious example of the Packers' struggling
offense. This game cost them a chance to win their division, and
isn't ranked higher on this list only because the Lions finished the
season on a 4-game winning streak.
- Week 3: Chargers 20, Seahawks 27 (ρ=1.1717)
How do you generate more than 500 yards of offense and yet only have
20 points on the scoreboard? Three lost fumbles, two interceptions,
and a failed 4th-down conversion are a good start. The Chargers'
special teams took a big chunk of the blame for this loss, but
that's a whole lot of offensive futility for a team that was
supposed to win their division.
- Week 10: Chiefs 29, Broncos 49 (ρ=1.1973)
Part of the Chiefs resurgence this year has been a good, or at least
adequate defense. They are 9-1 when they hold their opponent to 20
or fewer points. But the Chiefs also had a couple of defensive
breakdowns this season, and this was the biggest, giving up 7
touchdowns to the Broncos offense that only made it past 28 points
three times all season.
- Week 2: Ravens 10, Bengals 15 (ρ=1.2160)
Back in week 2, this didn't seem like that much of an
upset—the Bengals were the defending AFC North champions, they
were supposed to win games like this. But in hindsight, it
should've been a red flag that the Bengals could only score 15
points in spite of intercepting Joe Flacco 4 times.
- Week 5: Packers 13, Redskins 16 (OT) (ρ=1.2170)
More offensive struggles for the Packers, and again the Redskins
manage to catch their opponent having one of their worst games of
the season.
- Week 9: Patriots 14, Browns 34 (ρ=1.2349)
Perhaps
the Patriots were looking ahead to the game at the Steelers that
followed this one. But somehow the Browns (and particularly Peyton
Hillis) were the only team this season that was really able to
expose the Patriots unimpressive defense this season.
- Week 6: Seahawks 23, Bears 20 (ρ=1.2566)
Unlike
Week 7's Redskins @ Bears game, the Bears didn't have any turnovers
in this game. But Cutler was sacked 6 times (including once for a
safety), and the offense could only sustain four drives, and going
3-4 on field goal tries. The Seahawks only had three sustained
drives, but they all finished with a touchdown, and that was enough
to put them by the struggling Bears.
- Week 5: Saints 20, Cardinals 30 (ρ=1.2708)
The
Saints had three turnovers in this game, and the Cardinals turned
them all into touchdowns. As the Cowboys found out on Christmas,
even the Cardinals can get a win when you spot them 21 easy points.
Eliminated Games
This season, the only eliminated game was the Cowboys week 17
defeat of the Eagles, which would have otherwise appeared in the
"Dishonorable Mention" section.
Biggest Upsets According to the Line
| Week | Game | Line
|
|---|
| 10 | Cowboys
33, Giants 20 | Giants -14
|
| 16 | Vikings
24, Eagles 14 | Eagles -14
|
| 7 | Browns 30,
Saints 17 | Saints -13½
|
| 13 | Raiders
28, Chargers 13 | Chargers -13
|
| 17 | Buccaneers
23, Saints 13 | Saints -9
|
| 2 | Bears 27,
Cowboys 20 | Cowboys -8½
|
| 4 | Colts
28, Jaguars 31 | Colts -8½
|
| 6 | Chargers
17, Rams 20 | Chargers -8½
|
| 16 | Chargers
20, Bengals 34 | Chargers -7½
|
