Monday, March 31, 2008

Observations on playoff seeding

Starting with the 1975 season, the NFL has used a seeding system to determine how home field is awarded in playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl. In that time there have been 33 Super Bowls played. Of the Super Bowls played under the seeding system:

  • Every Super Bowl has had at least one team that was a 1 or 2 seed.

  • Only 4 Super Bowls have had a 2-seed vs a lower seed (1979: Rams (3) vs Steelers (2); 1980: Raiders (4) vs Eagles (2); 1992: Bills (4) vs Cowboys (2), and 1997: Packers (2) vs Broncos (4))

  • 20 Super Bowls were either 1 vs 1 seed or 1 vs 2 seed.

  • Only 7 Super Bowls were won by a team not a 1 or 2 seed (1980: Raiders (4), 1987: Redskins (3), 1997: Broncos (4), 2000: Ravens (4), 2005 Steelers (6), 2006: Colts (3), and 2007: Giants (6))

  • In spite of the above, 5 of the last 11 Super Bowls have been won by lower-seeded teams.

The final point is particularly notable, and (to my way of thinking, anyway), suggests there is no need to give low-seeded teams any additional special advantage.