Monday, January 26, 2009

NFL Wrapup: APR Picks by Team

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.

APR's pick standings by team for the 2008 season. Because there are no power indexes until after the first week of play, only 15 weeks of play were picked.

15-0-0 Lions Unsurprisingly, APR works best on bad teams that lose a lot, and good teams that win a lot.
14-1-0 Seahawks ibid
12-2-1 Eagles 12 correctly-picked games is a strong argument that the Eagles deserved their high rank after all (so is making it to the NFC Championship game).
12-3-0 Chiefs, Patriots, Cardinals, Rams Excellent results, considering the Patriots went from #24 (week 6) to #6 (week 17), and the Cardinals went from #5 (week 5) to #24 (week 16).
11-4 Cowboys, Chargers, 49ers, Titans The Chargers are another team that seemed to be over-rated based on their record, but 11 correct picks speaks otherwise.
10-4-1 Bengals They are who APR thought they were.
10-5-0 Ravens, Bears, Jaguars, Steelers 16 teams were picked 10-5 (66.7%) or better, which is pretty good...
9-6-0 Vikings, Browns, Texans, Panthers, Raiders, Saints, Bills, Giants, Colts, Dolphins ...but that means 16 teams were picked 9-6 (60%) or worse, which is not so good.
8-7-0 Packers, Jets, Falcons, Redskins The Packers (#5 to #18), Jets (#4 to #19), and Redskins (#1 to #22) all had late season collapses, and APR did not adjust quickly enough.
7-8-0 Buccaneers The Bucs did not travel well. Through week 15, they were 6-0 at home, but just 3-5 on the road. And then, for good measure, they dropped their last two home games.
6-9-0 Broncos The Broncos win APR's "Upset King of 2008" award. They were 5-4 against teams 8-8 or better, but just 3-4 against teams with losing records, including an inexcusable loss to the 2-14 Chiefs. How do you pick a team like that?


  • APR uses a simple exponential decay rate to discount older games. I suspect that this gives early games too much weight and late games too little. A more S-shaped curve will probably yield better results.

  • Under the current configuration, APR's worst per-team record is for the 1987 Seahawks and 1994 Bills (both 2-13).