Wednesday, October 17, 2012

NFL Week 7 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Lions @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.2837
Bears
δ=17.1
Bears
-5½
Jets @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1672
Patriots
δ=9.9
Patriots
-10½
Redskins @
Giants
Giants*
ρ=1.1309
Giants
δ=10.6
Giants
-6½
Saints @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.1189
Buccaneers
δ=8.7
Saints
-2½
Titans @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.1107
Bills
δ=5.2
Bills
-3
Cowboys @
Panthers
Cowboys
ρ=1.0755
Cowboys*
δ=5.2
Cowboys
-1
Browns @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.0379
Browns*
δ=1.4
Colts
-3
Jaguars @
Raiders
Raiders*
ρ=1.0372
Raiders
δ=1.0
Raiders
-4
Ravens @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.0338
Texans
δ=2.5
Texans
-6½
Seahawks @
49ers
Seahawks
ρ=1.0336
49ers
δ=3.9
49ers
-7
Packers @
Rams
Packers*
ρ=1.0238
Packers*
δ=4.0
Packers
-5½
Cardinals @
Vikings
Cardinals*
ρ=1.0233
Cardinals*
δ=2.4
Vikings
-6
Steelers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0109
Steelers*
δ=0.7
Steelers
-1

Bye: Eagles, Falcons, Chargers, Chiefs, Dolphins, Broncos

Comments:

  • The good news for the Lions is they didn't have any special teams disasters last week. The bad news is, a loss to the Bears would drop them to 2-4, with 2 losses in the division. As close to a must-win game as it gets in the first half of the season.

  • The last time the Jets won a regular season game in Foxboro, their quarterback was Brett Favre.

  • In the Giants' four wins, they've held their opponents at or under 84 yards rushing, and forced at least 2 turnovers per game. In their two losses, they've allowed at least 143 yards rushing, and only forced one turnover total. This could be a problem this week, as the Redskins have rushed for at least 129 yards in every game this season, and mostly haven't turned the ball over.

  • The Ravens didn't look particularly good in their win over the Cowboys. This week, facing a good Texans team smarting over their prime-time loss to the Packers, they could be in for a tough beat-down.

  • The Cardinals' Kevin Kolb will reportedly miss at leat a couple games with a rib injury. Assuming John Skelton starts this week, he's going to have to do a lot better than he did at the end of last week's game. The Cardinals' 3rd QB is rookie Ryan Lindley, who appeared to be at least servicable in preseason. He might be seeing his first regular season action this Sunday.

  • The Steelers will be without Troy Polamalu again this Sunday. If the Bengals are going to content for a playoff spot again this year, this is a game they need to win.