| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens @ 49ers | 49ers* ρ=1.0212 | 49ers δ=5.4 | 49ers -3½ |
Comments:
The 49ers are the only team that has been to multiple Super Bowls and never lost. Of course, their last Super Bowl appearance was 18 years ago.
The 49ers and Ravens played last year, in the Thanksgiving late game. Alex Smith was sacked 9 times, and the 49ers had 97 penalty yards.
Everybody likes the 49ers. But the Ravens seem to be on a similar trajectory to last years Giants: they both had a pretty unremarkable regular season, squeaked into the playoffs, and then got on a hot streak.
And with a couple impressive road victories in the playoffs, the Ravens seem to have shaken whatever problems they had last year playing away from home.
The 49ers, on the other hand, haven't looked all that impressive away from Candlestick Park. 3 of their 4 losses have been on the road, including ugly breakdowns in Seattle and Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco has been playing his best football of the season, including throwing 8 touchdowns and no interceptions for a 115 passer rating. The 49ers easily have the toughest defense the Ravens have faced in the playoffs,
Given how the Ravens played in the regular season, it seems like an odd thing to say, but if the 49ers are to win the Super Bowl, they are going to have to do something the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots could not—slow down Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.
