Game | APR | SRS | Line |
---|---|---|---|
Jaguars @ Raiders | Raiders ρ=1.9612 | Raiders δ=22.0 | Raiders -5½ |
Steelers @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.4433 | Bengals δ=4.0 | Bengals -6½ |
Chargers @ Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.3750 | Eagles δ=9.0 | Eagles -7½ |
Vikings @ Bears | Bears ρ=1.3107 | Bears δ=13.0 | Bears -6½ |
Redskins @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.2308 | Packers δ=0.0 | Packers -8 |
Lions @ Cardinals | Lions ρ=1.1747 | Lions δ=13.0 | Lions -2 |
Rams @ Falcons | Rams ρ=1.1111 | Rams δ=9.0 | Falcons -7 |
Saints @ Buccaneers | Saints ρ=1.1111 | Saints δ=7.0 | Saints -3 |
Broncos @ Giants | Broncos ρ=1.1093 | Broncos δ=27.0 | Broncos -4½ |
Browns @ Ravens | Browns ρ=1.0770 | Browns δ=9.0 | Ravens -6½ |
Dolphins @ Colts | Dolphins ρ=1.0630 | Dolphins δ=9.0 | Colts -3 |
Titans @ Texans | Titans ρ=1.0572 | Titans δ=4.0 | Texans -9½ |
Jets @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.0054 | Patriots δ=1.0 | Patriots -12 |
49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.0054 | 49ers δ=1.0 | Seahawks -2½ |
Cowboys @ Chiefs | Cowboys ρ=1.0005 | Chiefs δ=21.0 | Chiefs -2½ |
Panthers @ Bills | Bills ρ=1.0000 | Bills δ=3.0 | Panthers -3 |
Comments:
I'm not a fan of ties, so I've made a relatively small modification to game picks, In the event that two teams have the same power value, the home team is picked. This change affects Redskins @ Packers (SRS) and Panthers @ Bills (APR).
I'm a little surprised the Line is favoring the Chiefs to beat the Cowboys. The Chiefs did have a pretty impressive first outing last Sunday. But, well, that was the Jaguars. A solid win over the Cowboys will be more impressive.
The Patriots are favored by another big line. But I wonder how much their hurt by all the guys they're missing (Welker, Woodhead, Gronkowsky, and of course Hernandez). That's a major chunk of their offense, and if the Jets can continue to play solid defense, they could give the Patriots another tough game.
If the Titans really do have a good defense this year, they're going to have a real solid chance to prove it in Houston this week.
- Some personal stuff going on today, so I'm going to let my comments section is be a bit lighter this time around.