Wednesday, September 11, 2013

NFL Week 2 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Jaguars @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.9612
Raiders
δ=22.0
Raiders
-5½
Steelers @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.4433
Bengals
δ=4.0
Bengals
-6½
Chargers @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.3750
Eagles
δ=9.0
Eagles
-7½
Vikings @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.3107
Bears
δ=13.0
Bears
-6½
Redskins @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2308
Packers
δ=0.0
Packers
-8
Lions @
Cardinals
Lions
ρ=1.1747
Lions
δ=13.0
Lions
-2
Rams @
Falcons
Rams
ρ=1.1111
Rams
δ=9.0
Falcons
-7
Saints @
Buccaneers
Saints
ρ=1.1111
Saints
δ=7.0
Saints
-3
Broncos @
Giants
Broncos
ρ=1.1093
Broncos
δ=27.0
Broncos
-4½
Browns @
Ravens
Browns
ρ=1.0770
Browns
δ=9.0
Ravens
-6½
Dolphins @
Colts
Dolphins
ρ=1.0630
Dolphins
δ=9.0
Colts
-3
Titans @
Texans
Titans
ρ=1.0572
Titans
δ=4.0
Texans
-9½
Jets @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0054
Patriots
δ=1.0
Patriots
-12
49ers @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.0054
49ers
δ=1.0
Seahawks
-2½
Cowboys @
Chiefs
Cowboys
ρ=1.0005
Chiefs
δ=21.0
Chiefs
-2½
Panthers @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.0000
Bills
δ=3.0
Panthers
-3

Comments:

  • I'm not a fan of ties, so I've made a relatively small modification to game picks, In the event that two teams have the same power value, the home team is picked. This change affects Redskins @ Packers (SRS) and Panthers @ Bills (APR).

  • I'm a little surprised the Line is favoring the Chiefs to beat the Cowboys. The Chiefs did have a pretty impressive first outing last Sunday. But, well, that was the Jaguars. A solid win over the Cowboys will be more impressive.

  • The Patriots are favored by another big line. But I wonder how much their hurt by all the guys they're missing (Welker, Woodhead, Gronkowsky, and of course Hernandez). That's a major chunk of their offense, and if the Jets can continue to play solid defense, they could give the Patriots another tough game.

  • If the Titans really do have a good defense this year, they're going to have a real solid chance to prove it in Houston this week.

  • Some personal stuff going on today, so I'm going to let my comments section is be a bit lighter this time around.