| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.7246 | Seahawks δ=38.8 | Seahawks -19½ |
| Lions @ Redskins | Lions ρ=1.5650 | Lions* δ=21.5 | Redskins -1 |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.3525 | Broncos δ=23.7 | Broncos -14½ |
| Chiefs @ Eagles | Chiefs ρ=1.2451 | Chiefs δ=16.6 | Eagles -3 |
| Texans @ Ravens | Texans ρ=1.2294 | Texans* δ=4.8 | Texans -2½ |
| Bears @ Steelers | Bears ρ=1.2102 | Bears δ=9.2 | Bears -2½ |
| Cardinals @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.1740 | Saints δ=7.9 | Saints -7½ |
| Browns @ Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.1528 | Vikings δ=4.5 | Vikings -5½ |
| Chargers @ Titans | Titans ρ=1.1322 | Chargers δ=0.1 | Titans -3 |
| Buccaneers @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.1149 | Patriots δ=3.3 | Patriots -9 |
| Rams @ Cowboys | Rams ρ=1.1132 | Cowboys δ=5.5 | Cowboys -3½ |
| Bills @ Jets | Jets ρ=1.0716 | Bills δ=4.0 | Jets -1½ |
| Giants @ Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.0593 | Panthers δ=6.2 | Panthers -1 |
| Packers @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.0576 | Packers* δ=1.5 | Packers -2½ |
| Falcons @ Dolphins | Falcons ρ=1.0557 | Falcons δ=0.8 | Dolphins -1 |
| Colts @ 49ers | Colts ρ=1.0396 | Colts δ=3.0 | 49ers -10 |
Comments:
Wow, Jaguars @ Seahawks has the potential to be a specacular beat-down. But the Seahawks should be careful. Trap games are a real thing, and it's possible the Jags are better than their first two outings would indicate.
The algorithms both like the Lions a lot more than the Redskins. Of course, the Redskins are facing a potential 0-3 start, so maybe the Line is factoring in a certain level of desperation for them. But I feel like this is a game the Lions can win, especially if Reggie Bush is healthy and productive.
I also like the pick of the Chiefs over the Eagles. I think the Chiefs are probably at least as good as the Chargers right now, and will join them in coming out of Philadelphia with a win.
The Patriots have yet another big line over what seems to be a lesser opponent. But the Buccaneers are also facing an 0-3 start, and probably won't be pushovers. I don't think the Bucs can win, especially in Foxborough, but I'm also not so sure the Pats can come away with a double-digit margin of victory, either.
And speaking of 0-3 starts, the Steelers have looked pretty bad so far. They haven't had a losing season since 2003, but if they don't get things turned around quick... 8 wins is gonna seem like a long ways away.
Interesting that the Line is taking the Dolphins over the Falcons this week. Personally, I'm not so confident that the Fins can handle a quality opponent just yet, and their home stadium hasn't been much of an advantage for them lately.
I think APR has the Packers and 49ers really underrated so far, so that's why it picked their respective opponents this week. Presumably things will be a little more sorted out in the week 3 rankings.
