| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=2.2324 | Broncos δ=23.0 | Broncos -13 |
| Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals ρ=1.7426 | Cardinals δ=22.0 | Cardinals -2½ |
| Jets @ Packers | Jets ρ=1.7372 | Jets δ=25.0 | Packers -8 |
| Cowboys @ Titans | Titans ρ=1.6326 | Titans δ=27.0 | Titans -3½ |
| Rams @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.6037 | Buccaneers δ=22.0 | Buccaneers -5½ |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Steelers ρ=1.6036 | Steelers δ=10.0 | Ravens -2½ |
| Bears @ 49ers | 49ers ρ=1.4537 | 49ers δ=14.0 | 49ers -7 |
| Patriots @ Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.3151 | Vikings δ=41.0 | Patriots -3 |
| Jaguars @ R*dskins | R*dskins ρ=1.3104 | R*dskins δ=6.0 | R*dskins -6 |
| Eagles @ Colts | Eagles ρ=1.3074 | Eagles δ=24.0 | Colts -3 |
| Texans @ Raiders | Texans ρ=1.1747 | Texans δ=16.0 | Texans -3 |
| Seahawks @ Chargers | Seahawks ρ=1.1116 | Seahawks δ=21.0 | Seahawks -5 |
| Falcons @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.0629 | Bengals δ=4.0 | Bengals -5½ |
| Dolphins @ Bills | Dolphins ρ=1.0515 | Dolphins δ=10.0 | Dolphins -1 |
| Lions @ Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.0061 | Lions δ=15.0 | Panthers -2½ |
| Saints @ Browns | Browns ρ=1.0000 | Browns δ=0.0 | Saints -7 |
Comments:
A fair amount of agreement, given just one week's worth of data as input.
The Jets won last week and the Packers didn't, so the algorithms are picking the Jets to win this week. But the Jets will certainly find beating the Packers on the road is a lot harder than beating the Raiders at home.
The Steelers won last week and the Ravens didn't, so again the algorithms are picking them to win. In this case, it's maybe not so out of line. I don't have a good feel yet for how good either of these teams are, but I think maybe the whole Ray Rice fiasco could push this game in favor of the Steelers, especially on a short week.
Likewise the Vikings and Patriots. The happy times in Minnesota will have a lot stronger foundation if they can send the Pats home 0-2 this week.
I think Bears fans gotta have a very bad feeling about going into Levi Stadium on Monday night. After the way the 49ers demolished the Cowboys last week, this could be another easy win over a struggling team for them.
Saints @ Browns is a tie, and as such, the pick goes to the home standing Browns. I'm not totally sure this is a bad pick. The Browns took the Steelers to the wire on the road last week, and (as noted in last week's pick results) the Saints can be notoriously weak on the road.
