Picks for week 5.
Update: yahoo still doesn't have a line on Falcons @ Packers. I really don't like pushes, so I'm going with footballlocks for that game (I don't care about the size of the line anyway, I just go by what team is favored to win).
Still waiting on the line for Falcons @ Packers (which is waiting to see if it will be Rodgers or Flynn at QB on Sunday). Will update when the line comes up.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions | Bears ρ=1.6192 | Bears δ=29.1 | Bears -3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.4057 | Cowboys δ=15.9 | Cowboys -17 |
| Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants | Giants ρ=1.3274 | Giants δ=17.5 | Giants -7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.2365 | Panthers δ=17.3 | Panthers -9.5 |
| New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers | Patriots ρ=1.1722 | 49ers δ= 0.9 | Patriots -3 |
| Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints | Saints ρ=1.1342 | Saints δ= 5.5 | Saints -3 |
| Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens | Titans ρ=1.1171 | Titans δ= 4.2 | Titans -3 |
| San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins | Chargers ρ=1.1102 | Chargers δ=11.1 | Chargers -6.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Steelers ρ=1.0870 | Steelers δ= 6.9 | Jaguars -4 |
| Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles | Redskins ρ=1.0791 | Eagles δ= 2.6 | Eagles -5.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos | Buccaneers ρ=1.0778 | Buccaneers δ= 5.9 | Broncos -3 |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans | Colts ρ=1.0758 | Colts δ= 8.0 | Colts -3 |
| Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers | Packers ρ=1.0491 | Packers δ= 4.6 | Packers -4 |
| Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals | Bills ρ=1.0129 | Bills δ= 1.4 | Cardinals -1 |
Notes:
Some more disagreement this week. Maybe we'll start seeing some separation.
One of the reasons the Bears missed the playoffs last year is their two losses to the Lions (including a dramatic melt-down at Detroit in week 4). The rest of the NFC North is in various states of disarray, and getting a win in Detroit will be a big step toward winning the division.
SRS likes the 49ers over the Patriots! Wow. That would be a huge upset. But the line is only giving the Pats 3 points—not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Cowboys -17?! That's a lot of points to give. Of course, the Bengals have a choice of a hurt Carson Palmer or Ryan "Hoozdat" Fitzpatrick to start at QB.
The Line likes the Cardinals over the Bills? The Cardinals have looked pretty good this year, when they don't turn the ball over—if it hadn't been for that disaster of a 2nd quarter at the Jets, they wouldn've had a real chance to win. Maybe it's just pessimism born from previous years of watching the Cardinals get pounded, but I'll be fairly surprised if they can get the win here.
