Thursday, October 2, 2008

NFL: Best and worst teams since 1960

There's still a lot of football to play, but there's some teams this year that are on an early pace to take their place with some of the worst teams in history.

There's a lot of different ways to measure how good or bad a team is. If you take a look at net points per season (total points scored minus total points allowed) averaged over number of games played, you get the following table:

RankNet points
per game
YearTeam
1 -26.00 2008 St. Louis
Rams
2 -20.50 1976 Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
3 -18.14 1972 New England
Patriots
4 -18.00 2008 Detroit
Lions
5 -17.71 1973 Houston
Oilers

26 -14.33 2008 Houston
Texans

As I said, there's a lot of football to play. Even though the Rams have dug themselves a very deep hole, all they have to do is lose by 18 or fewer points per game the rest of the season. And technically, they're already one down on that task, as they "only" lost by 17 points to the Bills last week.

Just for fun, here's the other end of this table (I should add, for the sake of clarity, that this only includes the regular season, and not playoff games):

RankNet points
per game
YearTeamSeason Result
134816.251998Minnesota
Vikings
Lost NFC Championship Game (Falcons)
134916.311991Washington
Redskins
Won Super Bowl XXVI (Bills)
135016.791967Oakland
Raiders
Lost Super Bowl II (Packers)
135117.501968Dallas
Cowboys
Lost Divisional game (Browns)
135217.571969Minnesota
Vikings
Lost Super Bowl IV (Chiefs)
135317.751999St Louis
Rams
Won Super Bowl XXXIV (Titans)
135418.431968Baltimore
Colts
Lost Super Bowl III (Jets)
135519.071962Green Bay
Packers
Won NFC Championship (Giants)
135619.361961Houston
Oilers
Won AFC Championship (Chargers)
135719.692007New England
Patriots
Lost Super Bowl XLII (Giants)

That's a lot of great seasons ending on a sour note. Over-confidence, maybe?