Picks for week 6, based on week 5 rankings.
Read
this for a description of SRS.
Read
this for a description of APR.
Line values are taken
from yahoo.com,
except when noted otherwise. They are in all cases subject to
change, and for comparison purposes only.
Update: I see yahoo has changed their format; they are now showing a matrix of information from 5 different odds makers. Oh, well...
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins | Redskins ρ=1.7799 | Redskins δ=37.2 | Redskins -13.5 |
| Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.5492 | Vikings δ=23.1 | Vikings -13.5 |
| Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans | Dolphins ρ=1.4124 | Dolphins δ=14.0 | Texans -3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets | Jets ρ=1.3098 | Jets δ= 5.1 | Jets -6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers | Eagles ρ=1.2305 | Eagles δ=15.7 | Eagles -5 |
| New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns | Giants ρ=1.1997 | Giants δ=13.7 | Giants -7 |
| Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks | Packers ρ=1.1988 | Packers δ=18.5 | Seahawks -3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1645 | Broncos δ= 6.1 | Broncos -3.5 |
| Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints | Saints ρ=1.1302 | Saints δ=12.6 | Saints -7.5 |
| Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | Bears ρ=1.1201 | Bears δ= 9.5 | Bears -2.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Ravens ρ=1.0964 | Ravens δ=10.1 | Colts -5.5 |
| New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.0452 | Chargers δ= 9.7 | Chargers -6 |
| Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Panthers ρ=1.0302 | Panthers δ= 2.4 | Buccaneers -2 |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.0198 | Cowboys δ= 4.3 | Cowboys -5.5 |
Comments:
The Rams and Lions are both drawing lines of +13.5. The Lions have lost by fewer than 14 points just once (week 1 at the Falcons), and the Rams have never lost by fewer than 17 points (week 4 vs the Bills).
The line likes the Texans over the Dolphins? On the one hand, I don't think the Texans are going to give up two late fumbles again. On the other hand, if the Dolphins are anywhere near as good, and the Texans anywhere near as bad as APR thinks they are, Dolphins should be able to take this one.
The line likes the Seahawks over the Packers? Neither team is anywhere as good as last year. But the Seahawks have been just awful. If the Packers can't get a win against them, it's going to be a very long season for Cheese Heads.
Cowboys @ Cardinals is the only disagreement between APR and SRS.
I'm not so sure APR is wrong about Cowboys @ Cardinals, either. Coming off a loss to the Redskins, the Cowboys needed a late rally to hold off the 0-4 (now 0-5) Bengals. The Cowboys defense seems suspect, and I think it favors the Cardinals if this turns into an offensive shoot-out like the Cowboys' week 2 game against the Eagles.
