Tuesday, January 13, 2009

How hard is it to beat a team three times in a row?

Updated to include Ravens @ Steelers outcome.

There's a football cliché that's likely to be repeated a number of times in discussing the upcoming Ravens @ Steelers championship game: "it's hard to beat a team three times in a row".

Here's the breakdown of all playoff games featuring divisional matchups since the 1990-91 season (the first year there were 6 playoff teams from each conference):

Year# Divisional
Matchups
# 2-0
Teams
# 3-0
Teams
1990300
1991211
1992310
1993211
1994321
1995200
1997422
1998310
1999111
2000411
2001100
2002111
2004221
2005100
2006200
2007110
2008211
Total371510

Observations:

  • There were no divisional matchups for 1996 or 2003.

  • The numbers for 2008 are, of course, for games played at this writing complete.

  • Divisional matchups in the playoffs are moderately unusual. Unsurprisingly, the rate seems to have dropped off since the 2002 realignment has reduced the size of divisions to 4 teams each.

  • Divisional matchups featuring one team that swept the other are rare.

  • But once you have a divisional matchup where one team has swept the other, 10 of 15 times (66.7%) the 2-0 team has won.

Games that were the third win in a row:

Winning team in bold.

YearRoundVisitorHome
1991Wildcard Raiders 6 @ Chiefs 10
1993Wildcard Broncos 24 @ Raiders 42
1994Divisional Browns 9 @ Steelers 29
1997Wildcard Dolphins 3 @ Patriots 17
1997Divisional Buccaneers 7@ Packers 21
1999ChampionshipTitans 33 @ Jaguars 14
2000Divisional Eagles 10 @ Giants 20
2002Wildcard Browns 33 @ Steelers 36
2004Wildcard Rams 27 @ Seahawks 20
2008ChampionshipRavens 14@ Steelers 23

Games that were the first loss after two wins:

Winning team in bold.

YearRoundVisitorHome
1992Wildcard Chiefs 0 @ Chargers 17
1994Wildcard Bears 35 @ Vikings 18
1998Wildcard Cardinals 20@ Cowboys 7
2004Wildcard Vikings 31 @ Packers 17
2007DivisionalGiants 21 @ Cowboys 17