APR: Home vs. Visitor
Note that APR had the Week 2 Jaguars @ Jets game as a push, and so that game is not included in these totals.
| Visitor Won | Home Won | Total | |
| Picked Visitor | 65 | 48 | 113 |
| Picked Home | 40 | 86 | 126 |
| Total | 105 | 134 | 239 |
APR's record picking the home team is a respectable 86-40 (68.2%). Picking the visiting team, APR is 65-48 (57.5%).
Matchup Ratio Range
Here's a plot of all the matchup ratios (the ρ value in the game picks), separated by week. You can see that most ρ values are under 1.55 or so, with the few outliers coming in the first few weeks. The two high-ratio picks in the second half of the season are for Colts @ Patriots (week 13), and Colts @ Ravens (week 14).
Here's a plot of just the games where APR picked the visiting team. Each green 'x' correspond to the ρ value of a correctly picked game, and each red '+' corresponds to the ρ value of an incorrectly picked game.
There's no nice correspondence between wrong picks and a low ρ value. Of the incorrectly picked visiting teams, 26 of 48 (54.1%) have a ρ value higher than 1.1.
Wrong picks are a bit more frequent early on—more than half (25 of 48) came in weeks 2 to 8.
Future Changes
During the offseason, I plan to run some simulations to see if I can find a more accurate configuration for APR.
Thanks again for reading. If you're interested, I'll have some posts during the off season using the historical data. If not, I plan to be back as usual next September.
