Wednesday, February 15, 2012

NFL Wrapup: APR Pick Reliability

APR: Home vs. Visitor

Note that APR had the Week 2 Jaguars @ Jets game as a push, and so that game is not included in these totals.

Picked Visitor 6548113
Picked Home 4086126
Total 105134239

APR's record picking the home team is a respectable 86-40 (68.2%). Picking the visiting team, APR is 65-48 (57.5%).

Matchup Ratio Range

Here's a plot of all the matchup ratios (the ρ value in the game picks), separated by week. You can see that most ρ values are under 1.55 or so, with the few outliers coming in the first few weeks. The two high-ratio picks in the second half of the season are for Colts @ Patriots (week 13), and Colts @ Ravens (week 14).

Here's a plot of just the games where APR picked the visiting team. Each green 'x' correspond to the ρ value of a correctly picked game, and each red '+' corresponds to the ρ value of an incorrectly picked game.

There's no nice correspondence between wrong picks and a low ρ value. Of the incorrectly picked visiting teams, 26 of 48 (54.1%) have a ρ value higher than 1.1.

Wrong picks are a bit more frequent early on—more than half (25 of 48) came in weeks 2 to 8.

Future Changes

During the offseason, I plan to run some simulations to see if I can find a more accurate configuration for APR.

Thanks again for reading. If you're interested, I'll have some posts during the off season using the historical data. If not, I plan to be back as usual next September.