Tuesday, July 10, 2012

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #6

# 6: 2011 Week 15: Packers 14, Chiefs 19 (ρ=1.3215)
Packers' season: finished 15-1, clinched the #1 seed in the NFC, and lost in the Divisional round of the playoffs.
Chiefs' season: finished 7-9. Head coach Todd Haley was fired 13 games into the season; this was Romeo Crennel's first game as his replacement.
What happened: all season long, the Packers' defense was one of the worst in the league—a stunning turn-around from 2010, where they played a major role in the Packers' Super Bowl run. This was the game where their offense finally faltered. They posted the fewest yards, fewest points, and worst passing completion of any game all season. And instead of stepping up to carry the game, the defense simply couldn't keep the Chiefs very unremarkable offense from controlling the ball. Once they established a lead, that's all they needed to do.
Also of note: including this game, Kyle Orton has a 4-2 record as a starter against the Packers.

Next week: if you plot the ρ values for all the games posted so far, it's a relatively straight line. Starting next week, the ρ values go up much faster. These last 5 are really in a class by themselves.