NFL Wrapup: APR's biggest upsets

Finally got around to finishing this. Better late then never, though, right? Right?

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

• Week 7: Andrew Luck and the Colts shred the Broncos suspect defense.

• Week 2: The Titans can't quite get past the Texans, and instead give them their last win of the season.

• Week 15: The Saints go into St. Louis, and look like dopes against the Rams. Again. (To be fair, the 2013 Rams are a lot better than they were in 2011.)

• Week 5: The Colts somehow score 34 points on the Seahawks, and give them their first loss of the season.

• Week 9: The Browns have one of a few really good games this season, and gave the Ravens one of the losses that kept them out of the playoffs this year.

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2012 Season

10. Week 15: Chargers 27, Broncos 20 (ρ=1.1438)
    The Broncos had a pretty ordinary defense this season, but for the most part, their record setting offense was more than able to make up the difference. In this game, the Chargers' defense was able to slow down the Broncos enough (holding them to a season low 20 points), and the Chargers' offense was able to control the clock and make sure Peyton Manning and the Broncos' offense spent a lot of time on the sidelines.

9. Week 10: Jaguars 29, Titans 27 (ρ=1.1511)
   For the first half of their season, the Jaguars looked like they were going to have a chance to go 0-16 this season. Then they put together a solid game on both offense and defense, shocking the Titans by getting their first win.

8. Week 7: Bears 41, Redskins 45 (ρ=1.1580)
   This is another case of a middle-of-the-road team losing to a really bad one. Even if you take into account one touchdown came on a pick 6, this was a lot of points for the Bears' defense to give up, especially considering the Redskins scored 27 points or less in all but two games this season.

7. Week 5: Chargers 17, Raiders 27 (ρ=1.1823)
   The Raiders mostly didn't have a very good defense this season; this was one of the few exceptions. They actually held the Chargers to 3 points until the 4th quarter. The Chargers mounted an attempt at a late come back, but the Oakland defense intercepted Philip Rivers on the Chargers last two drives, sealing the deal.

6. Week 1: Texans 31, Chargers 28 (ρ=1.1972)
   The Chargers managed to establish a 21-point lead with a touchdown on their first drive of the 3rd quarter. But after that, the Texans came roaring back, scoring an unanswered 24 points (including a critical pick 6). Another ugly loss for the Chargers.

5. Week 7: Patriots 27, Jets 30 (ρ=1.1994)
   This was a very ugly game for Tom Brady. Under 50% completion rate, under 5 yards an attempt passing, no touchdowns and an interception. Somehow the Patriots did manage to score 27 points, and force overtime. But in their final possession, the offense could only manage one first down, and their defense couldn't keep the Jets out of field goal range.

4. Week 2: Panthers 23, Bills 24 (ρ=1.2023)
   Part of this was a defensive breakdown by the Panthers' defense, only the Saints scored more points on them this season. Another issue in this game was the Panthers' offense twice settling for field goals after having goal-to-go situations.

3. Week 9: Chargers 24, Redskins 30 (ρ=1.2196)
   The Chargers could only score 24 points on the the Redskins very bad defense that mostly gave up a lot more points this season. Meanwhile, the Redskins scored 30 points on the Chargers

2. Week 9: Saints 20, Jets 26 (ρ=1.2332)
   This is maybe not totally fair to the Jets, who did manage to claw their way to an 8-8 record, thanks in part to the Dolphins pissing away their chance to get into the playoffs. But along with those 8 wins, the Jets also had 7 losses by double digits, including 4 by 20+ points. And the Saints, who with one more win, would have the NFC's #2 seed, could not beat them.

1. Week 4: Bengals 6, Browns 17 (ρ=1.2435)
   The Browns actually started out looking pretty good this season, with a decent defense, and (when Brian Hoyer started at quarterback) an offense to match. One of the results was this defeat of their division rival. But continued injuries at quarterback, along with a team that gave up on their season, meant the Browns finished their sixth season in a row with double digit losses.

None of these would qualify for a spot on APR's top 25 regular season upsets.

I always reserve the right to remove a game from the list when it's a case of a playoff bound team resting late in the season. That didn't happen this year.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were 28-6-0 this year.

Week	Game	Line
1	Titans 16, Steelers 9	Steelers -7
6	Rams 38, Texans 13	Texans -7
7	Broncos 33, Colts 39	Broncos -7
13	Jaguars 32, Browns 28	Browns -7
15	Packers 37, Cowboys 36	Cowboys -7
16	Colts 23, Chiefs 7	Chiefs -7
2	Chargers 33, Eagles 30	Eagles -7½
7	Bills 23, Dolphins 21	Dolphins -8
16	Giants 23, Lions 20	Lions -8½
5	Jets 30, Falcons 28	Falcons -9½
10	Rams 38, Colts 8	Colts -9½
12	Buccaneers 24, Lions 21	Lions -9½
3	Colts 27, 49ers 7	49ers -10
12	Jaguars 13, Texans 6	Texans -10
15	Chargers 27, Broncos 20	Broncos -10
9	Bears 27, Packers 20	Packers -10½
16	Cardinals 17, Seahawks 10	Seahawks -10½
10	Jaguars 29, Titans 27	Titans -11

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: Index

This is just an index post for the "25 Biggest Upsets" series. It's primarily for my own reference, but as with the season indexes, you are welcome to use it as you find it convenient.

In Upset Order

#1	1972 Redskins @ Patriots		#14	1979 Falcons @ Chargers
#2	1973 Dolphins @ Colts		#15	2009 Eagles @ Raiders
#3	2011 Saints @ Rams		#16	1976 Cowboys @ Falcons
#4	1970 Lions @ Saints		#17	2000 Broncos @ Bengals
#5	2004 Patriots @ Dolphins		#18	2011 Texans @ Colts
#6	2011 Packers @ Chiefs		#19	1997 Packers @ Colts
#7	1970 Vikings @ Jets		#20	1996 Panthers @ Falcons
#8	2009 Buccaneers @ Saints		#21	1985 Dolphins @ Oilers
#9	2011 Saints @ Buccaneers		#22	2000 Steelers @ Browns
#10	1977 Rams @ Saints		#23	2005 Saints @ Panthers
#11	2008 Cowboys @ Rams		#24	1975 Bengals @ Browns
#12	1983 Redskins @ Packers		#25	1980 Jets @ Falcons
#13	2003 Packers @ Cardinals

In Chronological Order

#4	1970 Lions @ Saints		#22	2000 Steelers @ Browns
#7	1970 Vikings @ Jets		#17	2000 Broncos @ Bengals
#1	1972 Redskins @ Patriots		#13	2003 Packers @ Cardinals
#2	1973 Dolphins @ Colts		#5	2004 Patriots @ Dolphins
#24	1975 Bengals @ Browns		#23	2005 Saints @ Panthers
#16	1976 Cowboys @ Falcons		#11	2008 Cowboys @ Rams
#10	1977 Rams @ Saints		#15	2009 Eagles @ Raiders
#14	1979 Falcons @ Chargers		#8	2009 Buccaneers @ Saints
#25	1980 Jets @ Falcons		#9	2011 Saints @ Buccaneers
#12	1983 Redskins @ Packers		#3	2011 Saints @ Rams
#21	1985 Dolphins @ Oilers		#6	2011 Packers @ Chiefs
#20	1996 Panthers @ Falcons		#18	2011 Texans @ Colts
#19	1997 Packers @ Colts

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #1

# 1: 1972 Week 3: Redskins 23, Patriots 24 (ρ=1.4479)

Redskins' season: finished 11-3, won the NFC East, lost Super Bowl VII (thus becoming the final notch in the Dolphins perfect 17-0 season).

Patriots' season: Finished 3-11. Head coach John Mazur resigned 9 games into the season.

What happened: the good news for the 1972 Patriots was, any time they held their opponent under 24 points, they won. The bad news was, they only did that 3 times. The '72 Patriots were bad on both sides of the ball, including a last-place defense (points allowed), and an offense that mostly couldn't even score 21 points.

The same rule held for the '72 Redskins: they won almost every time they held their opponent under 24 points. The difference, of course, is that the Redskins had the #4 defense (points allowed), and only 3 teams managed to get to that 24-point threshold.

Somehow, the Patriots offense managed to shred the Redskins defense, passing for 253 yards (more than any other Redskins' opponent), and scoring 24 points (a season high for the Patriots).

Also of note: the Patriots' starting quarterback in 1972 was Jim Plunkett, much better known for his late-career success with the Oakland Raiders, which included two Super Bowl victories.

That's it. Thanks for hanging around this off-season to read the series. (And if you didn't, you can certainly go back and read them now.) Coming up next: new football!

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #2

# 2: 1973 Week 13: Dolphins 3, Colts 16 (ρ=1.3806)

Dolphins' season: finished 12-2, won the AFC East, and defeated the Vikings in Super Bowl VIII.

Colts' season: finished 4-10. Head coach Howard Schnellenberger was fired 3 games into the 1974 season.

Was this really an upset? On first glance, this game has the hallmarks of a contest where the better team isn't trying. The Dolphins had lost early in the season, and so didn't have a perfect season to play for. They had already clinched the AFC East, and didn't have anything else to play for in the pre-seeding playoff era. They also played back-up quarterback Earl Morrall in place of starter Bob Griese.

But Earl Morrall wasn't just any backup—he had 9 starts in relief of the injured Bob Griese during the Dolphins perfect season of 1972. He also lead the Colts' to the 1968 NFL championshp (in relief of the injured Johnny Unitas), ultimately losing to the Jets in Super Bowl III. The Dolphins had good reason to think that Morrall could handle a weak team like the Colts.

What happened: the Dolphins' defense did their job, holding the Colts to 16 points. It wasn't the shut-out they had against the Colts in week 9, but for an offense that scored at least 17 points in all but 3 games that season, it should've been enough.

The problem was definitely with the Dolphins' offense. Earl Morrall had a 47.8% completion rate, only managed 153 yards passing and threw two interceptions. The running game wasn't able to bail things out either; the Dolphins 93 yards rushing was their lowest production of the season.

Also of note: I was ready to leave this game off the list until I found that article in the St. Petersburg Times. It just didn't sound like comments of a team playing out the season.

Next week: APR's biggest upset since 1970.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #3

# 3: 2011 Week 8: Saints 21, Rams 31 (ρ=1.3721)

Saints' season: finished 13-3, clinched the #3 seed in the NFC, and lost to the 49ers in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Rams' season: finished 2-14. Head coach Steve Spagnuolo was fired after the end of the season.

What happened: the Rams didn't do well on defense in 2011. They gave up 407 points during the regular season, more than all but 6 other teams. But somehow, in this game, they managed to absolutely shut down one of the most potent offenses in the league. They got 6 sacks, 2 interceptions, and held the Saints to just 269 passing yards. This was, by a pretty big margin, the fewest yards produced by the Saints offense in an otherwise record-setting season.

Also of note: with 4 games, including 3 in the top 10, the 2011 season is by far the most represented. No other season has more than two games on the list.

Next week: the penultimate game of the list, and one I nearly left off.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #4

# 4: 1970 Week 8: Lions 17, Saints 19 (ρ=1.3604)

Lions' season: finished 10-4, clinched a wildcard spot, and lost to the Cowboys in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Saints' season: finished 2-11-1. Tom Fears, the Saints' inaugural coach, was fired after 7 games. This was J.D. Roberts first game as head coach. He retained the position through the 1972 season.

What happened: for much of the 1970 season, the Lions scored a lot of points (20+ points in 9 games), and the Saints allowed a lot of points (20+ points in 11 games). But in this game, the Lions had 6 turnovers (3 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles), which were enough to keep the Saints in the game. And, in the final moments, Tom Dempsey kicked his record-setting 63 yard field goal to give the Saints their second (and final) win of the season.

Here's the final moments of the game:

Also of note: Jason Elam and Sebastian Janikowski have both kicked 63-yard field goals, although they both did it at Mile High stadium.

Next week: from the oldest game on the list, we go to one of the most recent, featuring the final appearance of the Saints, and another bad Sunday for Drew Brees.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #5

# 5: 2004 Week 15 Patriots 28, Dolphins 29 (ρ=1.3472)

Patriots' season: finished 14-2, clinched the #2 seed in the AFC, and won Super Bowl XXXIX.

Dolphins' season: finished 4-12. Head coach Dave Wannstedt resigned after 9 games. Defensive coordinator Jim Bates finished out the season as interim head coach, and Nick Saban was brought in the following year.

What happened: in 2004, the Dolphins had a weak defense and an awful offense. But what really set them apart from other teams was turnovers. The offense turned the ball over 42 times that season, more than any other team. Given they managed to recover 26 fumbles, it could've been even worse.

The Patriots had a much happier season in 2004. They had the #4 offense (points scored) and #2 defense (points allowed), which carried them to 14 regular season wins and a Super Bowl victory. But with 27 turnovers themselves, the Patriots offense had a bit of a weak point as well. They had 7 games with two or more turnovers, including a couple 4-turnover games (this one, and their loss to the Steelers).

Also of note: the The Patriots are 0-8 in games where Tom Brady threw 3 or more interceptions.

Next week: Turns out I was wrong when I said game #7 (Vikings @ Jets from 1970 week 11) was the oldest game on the list. This next one has that beat by 3 weeks, and features a game-winning play with an NFL record that still stands.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #6

# 6: 2011 Week 15: Packers 14, Chiefs 19 (ρ=1.3215)

Packers' season: finished 15-1, clinched the #1 seed in the NFC, and lost in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Chiefs' season: finished 7-9. Head coach Todd Haley was fired 13 games into the season; this was Romeo Crennel's first game as his replacement.

What happened: all season long, the Packers' defense was one of the worst in the league—a stunning turn-around from 2010, where they played a major role in the Packers' Super Bowl run. This was the game where their offense finally faltered. They posted the fewest yards, fewest points, and worst passing completion of any game all season. And instead of stepping up to carry the game, the defense simply couldn't keep the Chiefs very unremarkable offense from controlling the ball. Once they established a lead, that's all they needed to do.

Also of note: including this game, Kyle Orton has a 4-2 record as a starter against the Packers.

Next week: if you plot the ρ values for all the games posted so far, it's a relatively straight line. Starting next week, the ρ values go up much faster. These last 5 are really in a class by themselves.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #7

# 7: 1970 Week 11: Vikings 10, Jets 20 (ρ=1.3188)

Vikings' season: finished 12-2, won the NFC Central, and lost to the 49ers in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Jets' season: finished 4-10. Long-time coach Weeb Ewbank would coach the Jets through the 1973 season.

What happened: in 1969, the Vikings were NFL champions, ultimately losing to the AFL champion Chiefs in Super Bowl IV. The Jets also had a very good season in 1969, going 10-4, and losing to the same Chiefs team in the final AFL Championship game. The Vikings were at the start of a period of strength that would last through most of the 1970s. While the Jets had fallen into a long-term slump—they would not return to the playoffs until 1981.

A big part of the problem for the Jets in 1970 was their defense—they held their opponents under 20 in just 5 games that season (compared to 9 times in 1969). Especially once Joe Namath got hurt, this wasn't something their offense could keep up with.

But the Vikings had problems of their own, at least in this game. Gary Cunzzo, their starting quarterback, got knocked out of the game after just 3 pass attempts, and back-up Bob Lee did not have a good game (9 completions on 24 attempts for 126 yards and 4 interceptions). The Jets were also able to hold the Vikings to 59 yards rushing, and the Vikings just weren't able to overcome their problems.

Also of note: In spite of his awful outing in this game (and generally unimpressive career numbers), quarterback Bob Lee was in the NFL through the 1980 season, and is credited for throwing at least one pass every season until his last.

Next week: the next installment of "a good offense can't always get by with a bad defense".

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #8

Yeah, Buccaneers and Saints again. Remember when I said the Saints were the team to appear the most on this list? We've still got a few more to go.

# 8: 2009 Week 16: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17 (OT) (ρ=1.3187)

Buccaneers' season: finished 3-13. This was Raheem Morris' first season as head coach.

Saints' season: finished 13-3, clinched the #1 seed in the NFC, and won Super Bowl XLIV.

What happened: through the first 13 games of the 2009 season, the Saints cut a pretty impressive swath through their opponents, averaging a dominating 35.8 points scored per game. Something happened for those last three games, and the Saints offense fell off a cliff, scoring just 44 points total in those last three games.

The 2009 Buccaneers were a team with a mediocre defense and a really bad offense. Bad enough that the Saints came within a doinked field goal of winning the game in spite of their offensive struggles. But after scoring on their first three drives, the Saints offense dried up, and (thanks in part to a special teams touchdown), the Buccaneers were able to start moving the ball on the Saints defense right about that same time.

Also of note: one of the ironies of the bounty scandal associated with this era of the Saints is that they had a very unremarkable defense, at least in terms of points allowed to their opponents. 19 teams in the league allowed fewer points than the Saints during the 2009 regular season.

Next week: the oldest second oldest game on the list.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #9

# 9: 2011 Saints 20, Buccaneers 26 (ρ=1.3163)

Saints' season: finished 13-3, clinched the #3 seed of the NFC, and lost to the 49ers in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Buccaneers' season: finished 4-12. Head coach Raheem Morris was fired after the end of the season.

What happened: in both 2010 and 2011, the Buccaneers games followed a simple rule: when they held their opponent to 21 points, they won, and when they didn't, they mostly lost. The difference between their 10-win 2010 season and their 4-win 2011 season is the Buccaneers mostly didn't hold their opponents to 21 points in 2011.

The Saints turned the ball over 4 times, including three interceptions thrown by Drew Brees. Other than the playoff loss to the 49ers, it's the only game all season the Saints turned the ball over more than twice.

It says something about how weak the Buccaneers' offense was that even with 3 extra chances (*) at the ball, they were only able to score 26 points, and nearly lost anyway. (*) The final interception came at the very end of the game, where the Buccaneers could just kneel out the clock.

Also of note: I wrote about this game in the week 6 pick results and the top upsets of 2011.

Next week: the first upset featuring a team that went on to win the Super Bowl.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #10

#10: 1977 Rams 26, Saints 27 (ρ=1.3153)

Rams' season: finished 10-4, clinched the #2 seed in the NFC, and lost to the Vikings in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Saints' season: finished 3-11. Head coach Hank Stram was fired after the end of the season.

What happened: the Saints started out as a bad team, and stayed that way for a long time. They didn't win more than 5 games in a season until 1978, didn't have a winning season until 1987, and didn't win a playoff game until 2000. In the mid to late 70's, the Rams (along with the Cowboys and Vikings) were one of the big powerhouse teams of the NFC.

But this was an era where (even more than now) teams needed to play good defense to win games. This was a problem for the 1977 Rams. If you look at their season stats, and sort by defensive rushing yards allowed... it's not pretty. Every loss the Rams had that season, they gave up at least 133 yards rushing. The 253 yards rushing they gave up to the Saints was the record for the season, and one of the few times during this era they gave up more than 200 yards rushing.

Unless your opponent turns the ball over 6 times, giving up 200 yards rushing makes it really hard to win a game, no matter how weak your opponent is.

Also of note: Hank Stram is far better known as the long-time head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, leading them to their first (and so far only) Super Bowl victory.

Next week: Drew Brees has a bad day in the middle of a record-setting season.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #11

#11: 2008 Week 7: Cowboys 14, Rams 34 (ρ=1.3152)

Cowboys' season: finished 9-7, and out of the playoffs.

Rams' season: finished 2-14. Head coach Scott Linehan was fired 4 games into the season.

What happened: little, if anything went right for the Cowboys in this game. QB Tony Romo had an injured finger, so backup Brad Johnson started for the Cowboys. In spite of facing an epically bad defense (only the 0-16 Lions gave up more points than the Rams in 2008), Johnson had a miserable game. He complete just 50% of his passes, threw 3 interceptions, and was sacked 3 times.

Johnson and the offense didn't get any help from their defense, either. In spite of facing one of the league's worst offenses (only the 4-11-1 Bengals scored fewer points in 2008), the Cowboys couldn't find a way to stop them.

Also of note: the Cowboys are the second losing team on this list (along with the 2000 Steelers at #22) not to make the playoffs. This is also the game with the widest point margin, and the only one more than +13 points.

I also wrote about this game in the 2008 Week 7 pick results, as well as 2008's top 10 Upsets.

Next week: the Rams again, with their only appearance on the losing side of an upset (for this list, anyway).

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #12

...and we're back!

#12: 1983 Redskins 47, Packers 48 (ρ=1.3044)

Redskins' season: finished 14-2, clinched the #1 seed in the NFC, and lost to the Raiders in Super Bowl XVIII.

Packers' season: finished 8-8. Head coach Bart Starr was fired after the end of the season.

What happened: remember how I said a few weeks ago that sometimes a good offense needs help from its defense? This is the second installment of that series.

This was a Redskins team with a powerhouse offense—they scored 27 or more points in all but 3 games that season, and it was a big reason they returned to the Super Bowl that year. The problem for the 1983 Redskins was (a lot of the time, anyway) their defense wasn't anything special—they gave up 20 or more points in 10 games.

The Packers actually had a decent offense in '82 and '83, especially considering it consisted of quarterback Lynn Dickie, wide receiver James Lofton, and a bunch of other guys who went on to well-deserved obscurity. But the Packers had one of the worst defenses of the league that year, and most games were a race to see if the offense could score more points than the defense gave up.

So the Redskins came into Lambeau field, probably expecting a relatively easy win, and instead found they were facing an offense that was able to match them score-for-score throughout the game, and couldn't quite manage to have the lead when time expired.

Also of note: this game remains one of the highest scoring in the NFL, and holds the record for most points scored on Monday Night Football.

Next week: the Cowboys lose to one of the worst teams in recent history, and it costs them a spot in the playoffs.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: Bye week

Real life™ intrudes. I have too much to do this week to give the next post the attention it deserves. I should be able to get to upset #12 next week. Until then, thanks for reading!

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #13

#13: 2003 Packers 13, Cardinals 20 (ρ=1.2979)

Packers' season: finished 10-6, clinched the #4 seed in the NFC, and lost to the Eagles in the Divisional round of the playoffs (the infamous "4th and 26" game).

Cardinals' season: finished 4-12. Head Coach Dave McGinnis was fired after the end of the season.

What happened: this is another game where you really need to look at the game book. Specifically, two key stats: the gametime temperature was 102°F (39°C) and the gametime humidity was 7%. I can tell you from personal experience, being outside and active in this kind of weather is a combination that can kick your butt, especially if you're not ready for it.

The problem is, you're sweating like it's 102° (which is to say, a lot). But because the humidity is so low, sweat pretty much evaporates immediatly. Unless you're really diligent to stay hydrated and replenish your electrolytes, you can really get dehydrated easily and be wiped out almost before you know it.

With that in mind, it's pretty clear what happened—the Packers weren't ready to play in the heat. Their defense couldn't get off the field, allowing the Cardinals to control the ball for the entire second half. And the Packer offense, which scored 30 or more points ten times that season, barely managed 13 against a very unremarkable Cardinals defense.

Also of note: the Packers trailed the Vikings for the NFC North division title for most of the season. The loss to the Cardinals very nearly cost them a spot in the playoffs. But in the closing moments of week 17, the Cardinals beat the Vikings on a last-second, 4th down touchdown. That Vikings loss gave the division to the Packers.

Next week: the Packers again, this time in a track meet at Lambeau field.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #14

#14: 1979 Falcons 28, Chargers 26 (ρ=1.2961)

Falcons' season: finished 6-10 in Leeman Bennett's 3rd season (and first losing season) as head coach..

Chargers' season: finished 12-4, clinched the #1 seed in the AFC, and lost to the Houston Oilers in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

What happened: this was Don Coryell's first full season as head coach of the Chargers, and they were already showing signs of the famed Air Coryell offense: Dan Fouts had 324 yards passing in this game, just 2 yards short of his season high. But part of the problem for the Chargers was all those passing yards didn't translate into a lot of points. 26 points was the median score for the Chargers in 1979.

Still, that could have been enough: they were facing a pretty bad Falcons' offense, that only made it past 25 points in 4 games all season. Unfortunately, this was one of those games, largely because the Chargers' defense gave up a season-high 375 yards to the Falcons. The Falcons were able to translate those yards into enough points to out-score the Chargers even in their home stadium.

Also of note: this is the 3rd of 4 games on the list where the home team lost.

Next week: a high-scoring offense withers on the sun-baked caliche of Sun Devil Stadium.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #15

#15: 2009
Week 6: Eagles 9, Raiders 13 (ρ=1.2855)

Eagles' season: finished 11-5, clinched the #6 seed in the NFC, and lost to the Cowboys in the Wildcard round..

Raiders' season: finished 5-11 in Tom Cable's first full season as head coach.

What happened: the 2009 Eagles won and lost by their offense. When they scored 24 or more points, they won, and when they didn't, they lost. But they were facing the Raiders, who had a pretty bad defense in 2009—every opponent they faced (except for one) scored a touchdown on them.

The problem was, the Eagles were that one exception. Looking at the stats (24 incomplete passes, 6 sacks, and only 67 yards rushing), it looks very much like a pretty epic break-down of the Eagles offensive line.

Also of note: the Eagles and Chiefs were the only opponents the Raiders faced in 2009 that didn't score at least 17 points. I also wrote about this game in the 2009 Week 6 Pick Results, as well as the top upsets for 2009.

Next week: sometimes even a good offense needs help from
the defense (part 1).

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #16

#16: 1976
Week 11: 1976 Cowboys 10, Falcons 17 (ρ=1.2844)

Cowboys' season: finished 11-3, clinched the #2 seed of the NFC, but lost to the Rams in the Divisonal round of the playoffs.

Falcons' season: finished 4-10. Head coach Marion Campbell resigned 5 games into the season.

What happened: the 1976 Cowboys didn't have a high-scoring offense. They scored under 21 points in 8 of their games that season. On a related note, the Cowboys' offense also lost the ball 3 or more times in half their regular season games (including 4 turnovers in this one).

Quarterback Roger Staubach didn't have a great season in 1976, but this was one of his worst performances: a 46% completion rate, 3 interceptions, 5.6 yards per pass attempt—it's no wonder the Cowboys only scored 10 points in this game.

The only question about this game is what happened at the end. Through 3 quarters, the Cowboys had managed to pitch a 10-0 shut-out of the Falcons. In spite of their poor offensive play, all the Cowboys needed was one more quarter of shutting down the Falcons, and they could've escaped with a win. Instead, the Falcons scored 17 fourth-quarter points, and got their upset.

Also of note: the 1976 Cowboys were in the middle of an extraordinary streak of success: they had consecutive winning seasons for 20 years, from 1966 to 1985, including 18 playoff appearances, and 5 Super Bowl appearances (winning twice).

Next week: the Eagles can't score 14 points on a very bad
defense.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #17

#17: 2000 Week 8: Broncos 21, Bengals 31 (ρ=1.2833)

Broncos' season: finished 11-5, with #5 seed in the AFC, losing to the Ravens in the wildcard round.

Bengals' season: finished 4-12. Head coach Bruce Coslet resigned 3 games into the season, so this was actually the 4th game of the Dick LeBeau era.

What happened: the Broncos' run defense stayed home. The Broncos gave up 407 rushing yards, 2nd-most all time. Corey Dillon alone ran for 278 yards, which at the time set the single-game rushing yards record.

The Bengals completed just 2 passes for 34 yards in this game. On a related note, this was very near the end of Akili Smith's career as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Also of note: Corey Dillon's 278 yards rushing in a single game has since been surpassed by Jerome Harrison (286), Jamal Lewis (295), and Adrian Peterson (296). There's only been one game since 1976 where a team has rushed for at least 300 yards in a game and still lost.

Next week: Roger Staubach has a bad day.