Tuesday, October 16, 2012

NFL Week 6 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (3-6)


Raiders @ Falcons
Chiefs @ Buccaneers
Cowboys @ Ravens


Bills @ Cardinals
Thanks to 182 rushing yards, the Cardinals had 332 yards from scrimmage, the most in any game this season. But 5 sacks, a sub-50% completion rating, and 67 penalty yards meant those yards only translated into 16 points. Somehow, the Cardinals might have won anyway, if John Skelton's numbers (2/10 45 yards, 1 int) were even a little less awful (or if Jay Feely had not doinked a chip-shot field goal attempt).
Giants @ 49ers
The formula for beating the 49ers seems pretty clear: stop the run (the 49ers had 80 yards rushing, lowest total of the season), and force turnovers (Alex Smith was intercepted 3 times, all deep in 49ers territory). As usual, when the Giant's defense plays well, they are very tough to beat.
Packers @ Texans
The Texans were certainly missing Brian Cushing on defense, and they played a pretty sloppy game including some critical penalties. But the fact is, when the Packers are playing well on offense and defense, and execute for a whole game, they can be trouble for any team in the league.
Bengals @ Browns
The Browns most competitive games have been when the defense has gotton turnovers or stopped the run. In this game, both of those came together (they allowed a season-low 76 yards rushing, and got 4 turnovers). That, along with a decent day by the offense was enough for the Browns first win of the year.
Steelers @ Titans
Especially without guys like Troy Polamalu, the Steelers' defense is pretty bad. In Steelers's two wins this season, they've held their opponent to 14 or fewer points. In their three losses, they've allowed 26 or more. The Steelers join the Lions as the only teams this season to allow the Titans to score more than 14 points.
Patriots @ Seahawks
Bad: six trips to the redzone for the Patriots produced one touchdown and 4 field goals. Worse: the Patriots defense allowed Russell Wilson the best game of his rookie season, throwing for 3 touchdowns and nearly 300 yards.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-4, SRS: 2-3, Line: 3-2)

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)
The Vikings had two major problems in this game: 1) they let Robert Griffin III run his offense up and down the field, scoring mostly touchdowns, and 2) the Vikings offense settled for 4 field goals, in spite of getting in the red zone on all 4 of those drives.
Rams (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)
Sam Bradford actually passed for 315 yards and a 66.7% completion rate. But 3 sacks and 94 penalty yards meant most of the Rams' drives ended short of the goal line, and with 3 missed field goals.
Eagles (APR, Line) @ Lions (SRS)
In spite of more turnovers, the Eagles had a 10-point lead with 5 minutes left to play. But their defense couldn't hold the Lions from a couple long scoring drives to tie the game. When the Lions got the ball in overtime (thanks to another turnover), they had a relatively easy time driving into field goal range for the win.
Colts (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)
This is what the Colts look like when they face a good defense for a full game. They only managed to get to the red zone twice, and only got one field goal as a result. Meanwhile, the Colts defense let the Jets run up and down the field, and ultimately, run away with an easy win.
Broncos (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)
Thanks to 3 first-half turnovers, the Broncos spotted the Chargers an easy 17 point lead. All that changed after halftime. In the second half, every Charger drive except one ended in a turnover (two of which were returned for touchdowns), and the Broncos drove the field for 3 other touchdowns. Just a disasterous collapse on the part of San Diego.


Another bad day all around, though particularly so for APR.

APR 4-10 38-3750.7%
SRS 5-9 38-3750.7%
Line 6-8 44-3158.7%