| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Broncos ρ=1.5063 | Broncos δ=24.0 | Broncos -10½ |
| Patriots @ Jets | Patriots ρ=1.1938 | Patriots* δ=14.4 | Patriots -7 |
| Seahawks @ Dolphins | Seahawks ρ=1.1649 | Seahawks* δ=11.4 | Seahawks -3 |
| Texans @ Lions | Texans ρ=1.1554 | Texans* δ=10.1 | Texans -3 |
| Raiders @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.1499 | Bengals δ=11.3 | Bengals -8 |
| Steelers @ Browns | Steelers ρ=1.1396 | Steelers* δ=5.6 | Steelers -1 |
| Titans @ Jaguars | Titans ρ=1.1307 | Titans* δ=3.6 | Titans -2½ |
| Panthers @ Eagles | Panthers ρ=1.1259 | Panthers* δ=6.6 | Eagles -2 |
| Ravens @ Chargers | Ravens ρ=1.1168 | Ravens* δ=5.2 | Ravens -1½ |
| 49ers @ Saints | 49ers ρ=1.1124 | 49ers* δ=12.6 | 49ers -1½ |
| Packers @ Giants | Packers ρ=1.0808 | Packers* δ=1.9 | Giants -2½ |
| Vikings @ Bears | Bears ρ=1.0760 | Bears δ=7.2 | Bears -2½ |
| Redskins @ Cowboys | Cowboys* ρ=1.0589 | Cowboys δ=0.4 | Cowboys -3 |
| Falcons @ Buccaneers | Falcons ρ=1.0530 | Falcons* δ=1.6 | Falcons -1 |
| Bills @ Colts | Colts* ρ=1.0088 | Bills* δ=0.7 | Colts -3 |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Rams ρ=1.0071 | Cardinals δ=1.4 | Cardinals -1 |
Comments:
A lot of really close lines this week. Even SRS is making a rogue pick (though even I would be shocked to see the Colts lose to the Bills).
The lines for the Bears and Steelers may move around some this week, depending on how their respective quarterback situations develop.
The Giants are 1-4 this season when the defense doesn't get at least 3 turnovers. If the Packers can hang onto the ball (and the receivers catch it when it comes their way), they could have a decent chance for an upset.
The way the Falcons have been playing lately, I'm not sure why they aren't flat-out underdogs going to Tampa Bay to face the surging Buccaneers (5-1 in their last 6). This will be just the 2nd time this season the Falcons have faced a team that (currently) has a winning record.
