Wednesday, January 16, 2013

NFL Championship: Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
49ers @
Falcons
49ers
ρ=1.1000
49ers*
δ=3.8
49ers
-4
Ravens @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0555
Patriots
δ=9.1
Patriots
-9

Comments:

  • As noted earlier, the Falcons have not played well from behind this year. They are 1-3 when they fall behind by more than 7 points (and that figure would be 0-4, if the Cardinals had any kind of offense at all).

    So the question for this game is, which 49ers team will show up on game day—the team that strapped a season-high 45 points on the Packers, or the team that couldn't do anything right when they played the Seahawks in week 16?

  • For the AFC side, this feels like a game that could be a lot closer than its 9-point line would indicate. The Pariots and Ravens played to a 1-point decision in their week 3 matchup, and the Ravens came within a missed field goal of forcing overtime in last year's AFC Championship game.

    The Ravens have had some impressive offensive games, scoring 33 points on the Giants in week 16, and scoring 38 points on the Broncos last week. If they can keep that offensive momentum going, the Patriots may find themselves in a game where they need to score early and often just to keep up.