Monday, January 14, 2013

NFL Divisional Round: Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)
Peyton Manning didn't have a great day in this game. An early interception was returned for a touchdown, and a late one set up the Ravens for the game-winning field goal. Except for a couple return touchdowns scored by the Broncos' special teams, this game would've been even uglier.
But perhaps the real problem for the Broncos was their defense. They made the Ravens' unremarkable offense look like world-beaters. Joe Flacco passed for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, Ray Rice rushed for 131 yards and another touchdown, and the Broncos lost a home playoff game in spite of scoring 35 points.
Packers @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)
As I indicated in the game picks, the Packers' defense needed to step up in this game. For the first half, they had some successes (a pick 6 and two forced punts), but also some failures (the 49ers scored 24 first-half points). Things got very ugly in the second half. While the Packers offense struggled to move the ball, the 49ers drove with ease, Colin Kaepernick ran all over them, and the 49ers scored 21 unanswered points to put the game well out of reach.
Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)
The Seahawks had another slow start in this game, falling behind 20-0 by halftime. Like the wildcard round, they seemed to wake up, and managed to go on a run, outscoring the Falcons 28-7 through most of the second half. But that gave them just a 1-point lead, and they left the Falcons enough time to drive into field goal range and score a game-winning field goal.
Whatever faults the Falcons may have, they are used to playing (and winning) games that are close and come down to the final moments of the 4th quarter.
Texans @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)
This was pretty much a replay of their week 14 meeting. The Texans' offense couldn't move the ball on the Patriots defense (they didn't have a drive go more than 50 yards until the 3rd quarter).
The Texans' defense slowed down the Patriots offense for a while, keeping it just a 4-point game at halftime, but in the second half, while the Texans struggled to move the ball, the Patriots reeled off 3 touchdowns in 4 drives that put the game away.


APR 2-2 5-362.5%
SRS 2-2 6-275%
Line 3-1 7-182.5%