Monday, January 21, 2013

NFL: Championship Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Falcons
The good news for the Falcons is the 49ers didn't make this an early run-away. The bad news is, no matter how good you are at game-winning drives, sooner or later letting a lead slip away, and needing a score to retake the lead is going to turn out poorly.
The Falcons seemed to make a habit this season of scoring a lot in the first half, and then coasting in the second. This isn't a problem when your opponent is the Eagles or Chargers, but when it's the 49ers, and your halftime lead is just 10 points, that's asking for trouble.
Ravens @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)
The Patrtiots looked really flat in this game. They had one of their lowest-scoring first halves of the season, and their lowest scoring game overall. They had 4 trips into the red zone, with just one touchdown as a result.
It seems to me a big part of the Patriots' problem in this game was coaching. At the end of the first half, if they had used their time out earlier, they would've had one, and maybe two chances at a touchdown. Instead, they let the clock wind down and were forced to take a field goal on second down.
The Patriots also didn't seem to adopt to the windy conditions. In spite of the fact that they did better running the ball than the Ravens (3.9 ypc vs. 3.7), the Patriots passed the ball 54 times (25 of which were incomplete, including 2 interceptions).


APR 1-1 6-460%
SRS 1-1 7-370%
Line 1-1 8-280%