| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals @ Texans | Bengals ρ=1.0846 | Texans δ=1.3 | Texans -4½ |
| Seahawks @ Redskins | Seahawks ρ=1.0739 | Seahawks* δ=8.8 | Seahawks -3 |
| Colts @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.0393 | Ravens δ=7.7 | Ravens -6½ |
| Vikings @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.0244 | Packers δ=3.9 | Packers -7½ |
Comments:
APR picks the Bengals to upset the Texans. Given the Texans are on an ugly 1-3 slump that cost them the #1 seed, a win at home is far from a sure thing.
Everybody likes the Seahawks. But they have road losses to the Cardinals, Rams, Lions, and Dolphins. On the other hand, the Redskins' defense has been pretty bad, so maybe the Seahawks can continue their high-scoring ways for at least one more game.
The Colts have to be pretty happy making the playoffs after such sweeping changes to their franchise. But they only have two road wins outside the division. A last-second come-back win over the can't-win-for-losing Lions, and a one touchdown win over the Chiefs that was close for the whole game.
The Colts have given up a lot of points on the road (including 35 to the otherwise low-scoring Jets), so unless the Colts really come out hot, this game could be over early.
Packers -7½ seems like a big spread, given how the Vikings' offense shredded the Packers defense last week. Yeah, the rematch will be in Green Bay, but the Vikings are anything but a pushover when Adrian Peterson is running like he has been. And when Christian Ponder has a good game as well, the Vikings can be a very tough team to beat.
