As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.
Teams are sorted by the magnatude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.
This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.| Team | Actual | Proj. | Diff | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 5 | 4.9 | 0.1 | |
| Patriots | 12 | 11.6 | 0.4 | |
| Panthers | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | |
| Bills | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | |
| Cowboys | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | |
| 49ers | 11.5 | 12.3 | -0.8 | |
| Packers | 11 | 11.9 | -0.9 | |
| Giants | 9 | 7.9 | 1.1 | |
| Texans | 12 | 10.9 | 1.1 | |
| Ravens | 10 | 11.2 | -1.2 | |
| Bengals | 10 | 8.6 | 1.4 | |
| Dolphins | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 | |
| Chargers | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | |
| Bears | 10 | 8.3 | 1.7 | |
| Chiefs | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | |
| Cardinals | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | Kevin Kolb can't stay healthy |
| Titans | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | Jake Locker doesn't seem ready for prime time |
| Raiders | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | |
| Jets | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | Revis hurt, and nobody to take up the slack |
| Seahawks | 11 | 8.2 | 2.8 | Russell Wilson, defense |
| Jaguars | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | MJD hurt for most of season |
| Steelers | 8 | 11.2 | -3.2 | Bruce Arians > Todd Haley? |
| Buccaneers | 7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
| Falcons | 13 | 9.3 | 3.7 | Easy schedule? |
| Redskins | 10 | 5.8 | 4.2 | RG3 |
| Vikings | 10 | 5.5 | 4.5 | Adrian Peterson's MVP season |
| Saints | 7 | 12.1 | -5.1 | Sanctions take their toll |
| Rams | 7.5 | 2.3 | 5.2 | Jeff Fisher |
| Eagles | 4 | 9.8 | -5.8 | Collapse of the Dream Team |
| Lions | 4 | 9.9 | -5.9 | Lack of discipline |
| Broncos | 13 | 5.8 | 7.2 | Peyton Manning |
| Colts | 11 | 3.3 | 7.7 | Bruce Arians, Andrew Luck |
Comments:
Jeff Fisher did an impressive job in his first season with the Rams, managing to post their best record in 6 years, and a 4-1-1 record in the division. Of course, that means they'll be expected to have a winning record next year, something they haven't done since 2003.
The Bengals' win over the Giants was the start of a 7-1 streak that propelled them to a winning season and the playoffs. They now have back-to-back winning seasons and playoff appearances for the first time in 30 years. The Bengals last won a playoff game 22 years ago, so a win this Saturday will end the league's longest active streak without a playoff win.
It shouldn't be a huge surprise that a lack of discipline off the field for the Lions was reflected in a lack of performance on the field. The Lions did fire a few assistant coaches; I guess we'll find out next fall how much of a difference that makes.
I certainly nailed it when I predicted the Saints would fall short of their 12.1-win projection. The good news for that team is (assuming their offense remains strong) even a modest improvement in their defense will get the Saints right back in contention.
On the other hand, my prediction that the 49ers would fall short of their 12.3-win projection was, well, wrong. Mostly a very impressive season, especially given a pretty tough schedule. But I wonder how confident Jim Harbaugh can be going into the playoffs with a quarterback who doesn't have 8 starts yet, and his choice of two unreliable field goal kickers.
The Colts have managed a very impressive turn-around, with a lot of the credit going to Andrew Luck. But his stat lines haven't been very impressive, with a 54% completion rate, and nearly as many interceptions as touchdown passes. As mentioned earlier, I think there's a good chance Luck will struggle in the playoffs, and could have a noticable sophomore slump next year if the Colts have a tougher schedule of opponents.
