| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.6468 | Broncos δ=27.1 | Broncos -11 |
| Redskins @ Raiders | Raiders ρ=1.4780 | Raiders δ=19.4 | Redskins -3 |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Colts ρ=1.3863 | Colts* δ=19.8 | Colts -7½ |
| Giants @ Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.2713 | Chiefs δ=13.5 | Chiefs -4½ |
| Jets @ Titans | Jets ρ=1.1912 | Jets* δ=22.7 | Titans -3½ |
| Steelers @ Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.1693 | Vikings δ=6.1 | Steelers -1½ |
| Cowboys @ Chargers | Cowboys ρ=1.1641 | Cowboys* δ=16.1 | Cowboys -1 |
| Seahawks @ Texans | Seahawks ρ=1.1286 | Seahawks* δ=28.2 | Seahawks -2½ |
| 49ers @ Rams | Rams ρ=1.1156 | 49ers* δ=3.9 | 49ers -3 |
| Ravens @ Bills | Ravens* ρ=1.1057 | Bills δ=9.2 | Ravens -3½ |
| Cardinals @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.1013 | Buccaneers δ=16.1 | Buccaneers -3 |
| Patriots @ Falcons | Patriots ρ=1.0933 | Patriots* δ=17.0 | Falcons -2 |
| Bengals @ Browns | Browns ρ=1.0875 | Browns* δ=0.5 | Bengals -4½ |
| Bears @ Lions | Bears ρ=1.0536 | Bears δ=5.4 | Lions -2½ |
| Dolphins @ Saints | Dolphins ρ=1.0510 | Saints δ=0.7 | Dolphins -6 |
Bye: Packers, Panthers
Comments:
It feels like a lot of close games this week, and maybe a pretty ugly round of picks (after a very nice one last week).
The Raiders have a win, and a close loss to what looks like could be a pretty good Colts team, while the the Redskins have 3 losses, including a couple blow-outs to what look like pretty weak opponents. So, from a purely final score point of view, it makes sense to pick the Raiders in this game. But, RG3 finally seems to be shaking off the rust, and Raiders QB Terrelle Prior could miss this game with a concussion, Maybe this is Matt Flynn's big chance, but I think the line is right here to pick the Redskins.
The Steelers at least showed some signs of life Sunday night. And they'll be facing the weakest QB of their season so far. But the Steelers' rush defense has been in the bottom half of the league. This could be Adrian Peterson's first really big rushing game of the year.
Last year, the Seahawks lost several road games against some pretty unremarkable opponents (Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals, and Rams). If it's not going to be more of the same for the Seahawks, this is the type of game they need to be able to win: on the road facing a decent opponent.
The 49ers are also facing a must-win game, but for another reason. If they lose this week, they'll be 1-3, including 0-2 in their division. Even with 75% of the season left to play, that would give the Seahawks a huge lead in the divison.
The Dolphins face another strong NFC South team, this time on the road. It will be a lot harder to discount them if they can slow down Drew Brees' offense enough to come out of New Orleans with a win.
Update: apparently the Josh Freeman era is over for Tampa Bay. Freeman has never been an amazing QB, and after an 0-3 start featuring miserable QB stats, the Bucs are probably making the right decision.
