Tuesday, September 24, 2013

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-2)


Bears @ Steelers
Cardinals @ Saints
Buccaneers @ Patriots
Giants @ Panthers
Jaguars @ Seahawks
Raiders @ Broncos


Browns @ Vikings
So the Browns traded away probably their best offensive player, had to start their backup quarterback, and were playing on the road. No problem, right? Well, the Browns' defense kept Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder in check(*), and the Vikings' defense wasn't able to keep the Browns from 3 long touchdown drives, including the game winner.

(*) To be sure, one of these things is a lot harder than the other.
Texans @ Ravens
For the third week in a row, the Texans fell behind a team they were favored to beat. But this time there was no late-game come back. Instead, the Ravens' defense found their groove (at least for this game), holding the Texans to 264 yards of total offense, and just 2 drives longer than 39 yards.

Split Picks: (APR 6-2, SRS 4-4, Line 4-4)

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)
So, the good news for the Eagles is that their defense held the Chiefs to a season-low 26 points, in spite of 5 turnovers by the offense. The bad news, of course, is that the offense turned the ball over 5 times, which made it impossible for them to keep up with an opponent that scored 26 points.
Lions (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)
Reggie Bush didn't play, but with Matt Stafford throwing for 385 yards and 2 touchdowns, it didn't matter. Robert Griffin III had his best game of the season so far (326 yards passing and 37 yards rushing), but it wasn't enough for the Redskins to get their first win.
Colts (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)
Colin Kaepernick had just 20 yards rushing in this game. And when he plays as a more traditional drop-back passer (and not throwing on the Packers' bad pass defense), he's a pretty unremarkable quarterback. If they can't get Kaepernick back running like he was last year, the 49ers are going to be in deep trouble.
Chargers (SRS) @ Titans (APR, Line)
It's only three games into the season, but the Chargers are on pace to give up more than 7,500 yards on defense, which would easily surpass the record 7,042 yards the Saints gave up last year. That defense allowed Jake Locker (299 yards passing and 68 yards rushing, and no turnovers) one of the best games of his career. And thanks to the Titans' defense holding the Chargers to 17 points, that was enough to win the game.
Rams (APR) @ Cowboys (SRS, Line)
This game seems pretty simple: the Cowboys had a running game (193 yards), and the Rams did not (35 yards); the Cowboys were able to protect Tony Romo (1 sack), and the Rams were not able to protect Sam Bradford (6 sacks). As a result, the Cowboys were able to score 4 touchdowns, while the Rams punted 5 times, gave the ball over on downs 3 times, and only had 3 drives longer than 25 yards.
Bills (SRS) @ Jets (APR, Line)
This was a sloppy game, especially for the Jets, who had 2 interceptions and 168 penalty yards. But E.J. Manuel had a poor day passing (23 incompletions, and 8(!) sacks), and it just wasn't enough to ever pull ahead of the Jets.
Packers (SRS, Line) @ Bengals (APR)
There's certainly no shortage of things that went wrong for the Packers in this game. Turnovers, injuries, sloppy defense, an ineffective passing game, and questionable play calling all played their part. Maybe the biggest single thing was losing Clay Matthews in the first half. That defense loses a lot when he's not on the field.
Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Dolphins (Line)
Maybe this is just another late-game swoon by the Falcons, who got outscored 17-3 at the end of the game. But the Dolphins are now 3-0, including a couple wins over playoff teams from last year. It could be that second year HC Joe Philbin is making a real difference for Miami.


A real nice week for APR this time, thanks in part to wins by 3 road underdogs.

APR 12- 4 22-1068.8%
SRS 10- 6 20-1262.5%
Line 10- 6 22-1068.8%