Game | APR | SRS | Line |
---|---|---|---|
Broncos @ Raiders | Broncos ρ=1.4469 | Broncos* δ=19.2 | Broncos -11½ |
Cowboys @ Jaguars | Cowboys ρ=1.2727 | Cowboys* δ=12.9 | Cowboys -6½ |
Panthers @ Eagles | Eagles ρ=1.2694 | Eagles δ=13.1 | Eagles -6 |
Steelers @ Jets | Steelers ρ=1.2653 | Steelers* δ=9.6 | Steelers -5 |
Rams @ Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.2602 | Cardinals δ=14.6 | Cardinals -7 |
Titans @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.2164 | Ravens δ=13.1 | Ravens -10 |
Bears @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.1131 | Packers δ=7.2 | Packers -7½ |
Chiefs @ Bills | Chiefs ρ=1.0960 | Chiefs* δ=6.5 | Chiefs -1½ |
Giants @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.0774 | Seahawks δ=4.3 | Seahawks -9 |
Browns @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.0538 | Bengals δ=2.7 | Bengals -7 |
Dolphins @ Lions | Dolphins ρ=1.0315 | Dolphins* δ=6.4 | Lions -2½ |
49ers @ Saints | 49ers ρ=1.0249 | 49ers* δ=0.2 | Saints -5 |
Falcons @ Buccaneers | Falcons ρ=1.0057 | Falcons* δ=8.6 | Falcons -1½ |
Bye: Patriots, Chargers, Colts, Vikings, Washington, Texans
Comments:
No line for Cowboys "@" Jaguars, presumably waiting for an update on Romo's status. I assume the Cowboys will be favored by something, it's just a question of how much. I will check back later in the week. Update: I'm now seeing Cowboys -6½, which seems reasonable.
I like the pick of the Dolphins to upset the Lions this week. As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins have a very solid defense, and it seems like maybe Tannehill and the offense are finding their groove in the last couple games. Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a couple ugly wins over the Saints and Falcons. If they fall behind 21 points to the Dolphins, they're gonna find it a lot harder to mount a come back.
Everybody likes the Falcons this week (although not by much). I feel like this could easily be another upset. The Bucs have been competitive in most of their games, will be playing at home, and would like nothing better than a little revenge for their 56-14 loss to the Falcons in week 3.
Meanwhile, the Falcons only have 2 wins of their own, and are coming off an ugly second half collapse to the Lions a couple weeks ago, and that's the only close loss the Falcons have had all season. I just don't feel like the Falcons are a team that could get a road win anywhere right now.