Wednesday, November 5, 2014

NFL Week 10 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Broncos @
Raiders
Broncos
ρ=1.4469
Broncos*
δ=19.2
Broncos
-11½
Cowboys @
Jaguars
Cowboys
ρ=1.2727
Cowboys*
δ=12.9
Cowboys
-6½
Panthers @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.2694
Eagles
δ=13.1
Eagles
-6
Steelers @
Jets
Steelers
ρ=1.2653
Steelers*
δ=9.6
Steelers
-5
Rams @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.2602
Cardinals
δ=14.6
Cardinals
-7
Titans @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.2164
Ravens
δ=13.1
Ravens
-10
Bears @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.1131
Packers
δ=7.2
Packers
-7½
Chiefs @
Bills
Chiefs
ρ=1.0960
Chiefs*
δ=6.5
Chiefs
-1½
Giants @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.0774
Seahawks
δ=4.3
Seahawks
-9
Browns @
Bengals
Bengals
ρ=1.0538
Bengals
δ=2.7
Bengals
-7
Dolphins @
Lions
Dolphins
ρ=1.0315
Dolphins*
δ=6.4
Lions
-2½
49ers @
Saints
49ers
ρ=1.0249
49ers*
δ=0.2
Saints
-5
Falcons @
Buccaneers
Falcons
ρ=1.0057
Falcons*
δ=8.6
Falcons
-1½

Bye: Patriots, Chargers, Colts, Vikings, Washington, Texans

Comments:

  • No line for Cowboys "@" Jaguars, presumably waiting for an update on Romo's status. I assume the Cowboys will be favored by something, it's just a question of how much. I will check back later in the week. Update: I'm now seeing Cowboys -6½, which seems reasonable.

  • I like the pick of the Dolphins to upset the Lions this week. As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins have a very solid defense, and it seems like maybe Tannehill and the offense are finding their groove in the last couple games. Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a couple ugly wins over the Saints and Falcons. If they fall behind 21 points to the Dolphins, they're gonna find it a lot harder to mount a come back.

  • Everybody likes the Falcons this week (although not by much). I feel like this could easily be another upset. The Bucs have been competitive in most of their games, will be playing at home, and would like nothing better than a little revenge for their 56-14 loss to the Falcons in week 3.

    Meanwhile, the Falcons only have 2 wins of their own, and are coming off an ugly second half collapse to the Lions a couple weeks ago, and that's the only close loss the Falcons have had all season. I just don't feel like the Falcons are a team that could get a road win anywhere right now.