As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.
Teams are sorted by the magnitude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.
This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.| Team | Actual | Proj. | Diff. | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | |
| Falcons | 6 | 5.9 | 0.1 | |
| Chargers | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | |
| Broncos | 12 | 11.7 | 0.3 | |
| Giants | 6 | 5.6 | 0.4 | |
| Dolphins | 8 | 7.5 | 0.5 | |
| Eagles | 10 | 9.4 | 0.6 | |
| Bengals | 10 | 11.1 | -0.6 | |
| Seahawks | 12 | 12.8 | -0.8 | |
| Washington | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | |
| Vikings | 7 | 6.1 | 0.9 | |
| Jets | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | |
| Patriots | 12 | 10.5 | 1.5 | Healthy Gronk |
| Cardinals | 11 | 9.5 | 1.5 | Carson Palmer was actually having a pretty good season before he got hurt. |
| Browns | 7 | 5.5 | 1.5 | Brian Hoyer |
| Colts | 11 | 9.4 | 1.6 | |
| Rams | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | Bradford injured |
| Raiders | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | |
| Chiefs | 9 | 11.1 | -2.1 | |
| Bears | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | Offense collapsed |
| Bills | 9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | Defense much better |
| Lions | 11 | 8.5 | 2.5 | Defense much better |
| Steelers | 11 | 8.2 | 2.8 | Le'Veon Bell? The Steelers definitely had a rollercoaster season... |
| Ravens | 10 | 7.1 | 2.9 | Flacco playing better |
| Buccaneers | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | No offense |
| 49ers | 8 | 11.5 | -3.5 | Injuries |
| Saints | 7 | 10.8 | -3.8 | Drew Brees did not have a good year, weak defense didn't help. |
| Cowboys | 12 | 8.2 | 3.8 | Defense better, running game |
| Panthers | 7 | 11.6 | -4.1 | Defense struggled, offense wasn't able to take up the slack. |
| Packers | 12 | 7.8 | 4.2 | Rodgers plays whole season |
| Texans | 9 | 4.2 | 4.8 | Last year's team was probably not as bad as their record. |
| Titans | 2 | 7.5 | -5.5 | Injuries. Also Ken Whisenhunt's resume as a HC is mostly pretty ugly when he doesn't have Kurt Warner as his starting QB. |
Comments:
Four teams over the 4.0 threshold, but unlike last year, none over 5.5. Which gives a final scoring of 18 reasonably close, 10 moderately close, 4 wrong, and 0 "yikes".
Remember last year when I speculated that the Titans and Jets might have a chance to contend for a playoff spot? Yeah, leave us never speak of that again.
On a related note, it's been since 94-95 that the Lions have had back-to-back winning seasons, so it's probably advisable to hold off declaring the Lions have turned the corner. If they can come out and contend again in 2015, it'll be a solid sign that 2014 wasn't another fluke season for them like 2011 (and the first half of 2007).
The Texans rebounded pretty nicely from their 2-14 season, especially considering they started three different guys at quarterback. But I think they're gonna have to find a solid quarterback before they're gonna do much better than 9 wins.
The Saints have another tough season, but this time they can't blame it on the absence of Sean Payton. Maybe most surprising was 5 home losses for a team that had mostly done very well in the Superdome for many years.
