Thursday, April 24, 2008

AFL Pick Standings, season to date

I finished the program to compute the season-to-date standings for each algorithm. A couple of notes:
  • The differences between these results and what I previously posted appear to be a PEBCAK issue. The numbers in this post supercede the old ones.

  • For some odd reason, ESPN always lists the winning team first on their schedules page. This caused me a fair amount of confusion until I figured out it wasn't in the usual "visitor, home" format.

  • Yes, every home team won in week 6.

  • APR and SRS use a feedback algorithm based on previous games played (which is why there is no results for week 1). Arena Football has an odd number of teams, which means one team has a bye every week. It also means since Grand Rapids didn't play their first game until week 2, APR and SRS did not have any data to pick that game. It was recorded as a push (tie) in the results.

Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
70.5% 65.2% 71.4% 55.4%