Friday, July 4, 2008

AFL Pick Results and Playoff Power Rankings, Round 1

Pick Standings

A high-ranked Dallas team is one-and-done in the playoffs thanks to a surging team from New York. Somehow, that sounds oddly familiar...

In spite of my warnings to the contrary, APR (and SRS) were right to pick Grand Rapids to beat Arizona. And Arizona (and to a lesser extent, Dallas) show the correlation between losing a "meaningless" end-of-season game, and early exits from the playoffs.

APRSRSITPHome
Week 2(701)(521)(530)(530)
Week 3(530)(530)(620)(620)
Week 4(530)(530)(530)(440)
Week 5(710)(800)(710)(350)
Week 6(440)(350)(440)(800)
Week 7(530)(530)(620)(350)
Week 8(620)(530)(710)(260)
Week 9(620)(620)(620)(620)
Week 10(260)(350)(440)(620)
Week 11(350)(350)(350)(620)
Week 12(620)(710)(620)(350)
Week 13(350)(260)(350)(530)
Week 14(710)(620)(620)(350)
Week 15(530)(620)(260)(530)
Week 16(620)(530)(530)(620)
Week 17(440)(620)(530)(530)
Week Divisional(220)(220)(130)(130)
Totals:(83481)(82491)(81510)(77550)
63.3% 62.5% 61.4% 58.3%

Power Rankings

Georgia and San Jose are virtually tied in their power index, so relatively minor changes to their power index values swaps their rankings. In hindsight, it looks like APR was right to rank Dallas as low as it did.

Note that New York's power index is just a shade under Chicago's... another upset isn't out of the question.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (LW)Philadelphia
Soul
13-3-01.5189
(LW * 1.0036)
Bye
2 (LW-1)Georgia
Force
10-6-01.4428
(LW * 1.0022)
Bye
3 (LW+1)San Jose
SaberCats
11-5-01.4407
(LW * 0.9967)
Bye
4 (LW-1)Chicago
Rush
11-5-01.3967
(LW * 0.9988)
Bye
5 (LW-3)New York
Dragons
9-8-01.3956
(LW * 1.0539)
beat Desperados by 14
6 (LW)Tampa Bay
Storm
8-8-01.3746
(LW * 1.0030)
Bye
7 (LW+3)Dallas
Desperados
12-5-01.3643
(LW * 0.9670)
lost to Dragons by 14
8 (LW+1)Cleveland
Gladiators
10-7-01.3527
(LW * 1.0028)
beat Predators by 3
9 (LW-3)Grand Rapids
Rampage
7-10-01.3029
(LW * 1.0278)
beat Rattlers by 7
10 (LW+1)Utah
Blaze
6-11-01.2894
(LW * 0.9766)
lost to Crush by 5
11 (LW)New Orleans
VooDoo
8-8-01.2826
(LW * 1.0036)
Bye
12 (LW+2)Orlando
Predators
9-8-01.2785
(LW * 0.9979)
lost to Gladiators by 3
13 (LW-1)Colorado
Crush
7-10-01.2490
(LW * 1.0302)
beat Blaze by 5
14 (LW+1)Arizona
Rattlers
8-9-01.2041
(LW * 0.9762)
lost to Rampage by 7
15 (LW)Los Angeles
Avengers
5-11-01.1382
(LW * 0.9991)
Bye
16 (LW)Kansas City
Brigade
3-13-01.1279
(LW * 1.0055)
Bye
17 (LW)Columbus
Destroyers
3-13-01.1210
(LW * 1.0081)
Bye