Sunday, September 27, 2009

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 4

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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑3)Iowa
AP=13
4-08.1818
(LW × 1.488)
won by 11
at Penn-St
2 (↑17)Virginia-Tech
AP=6
3-16.6229
(LW × 1.867)
won by 24
vs Miami-FL
3 (↑10)Boise-St
AP=5
4-06.0206
(LW × 1.546)
won by 35
at Bowling-Green
4 (↑1)Alabama
AP=3
4-05.8037
(LW × 1.068)
won by 28
vs Arkansas
5 (↓4)Miami-FL
AP=17
2-15.2197
(LW × 0.712)
lost by 24
at Virginia-Tech
6 (↑36)South-Florida
AP=rv(145)
4-05.0277
(LW × 2.116)
won by 10
at Florida-St
7 (-)Texas
AP=2
4-04.9509
(LW × 1.065)
won by 57
vs UTEP
8 (↑33)Stanford
AP=rv(2)
3-14.7096
(LW × 1.972)
won by 20
vs Washington
9 (↑48)Oregon
AP=16
3-14.6847
(LW × 2.422)
won by 39
vs California
10 (↓1)Florida-St2-24.4819
(LW × 1.005)
lost by 10
vs South-Florida
11 (↑12)TCU
AP=11
3-04.3796
(LW × 1.370)
won by 4
at Clemson
12 (↑20)Florida
AP=1
4-04.3521
(LW × 1.567)
won by 34
at Kentucky
13 (↓2)LSU
AP=4
4-04.3502
(LW × 1.067)
won by 4
at Mississippi-St
14 (↓11)Kansas
AP=18
4-04.3494
(LW × 0.712)
won by 7
vs Southern-Miss
15 (↓5)Auburn
AP=rv(171)
4-04.3003
(LW × 0.990)
won by 24
vs Ball-St
16 (↓14)Houston
AP=12
3-04.1448
(LW × 0.623)
won by 1
vs Texas-Tech
17 (↑16)Nebraska
AP=23
3-13.8172
(LW × 1.375)
won by 55
vs LA-Lafayette
18 (↓4)Georgia-Tech
AP=25
3-13.7947
(LW × 0.982)
won by 17
vs North-Carolina
19 (↑2)USC
AP=7
3-13.7138
(LW × 1.113)
won by 21
vs Washington-St
20 (↓2)Penn-St
AP=15
3-13.6785
(LW × 1.012)
lost by 11
vs Iowa
21 (↓1)Clemson2-23.6618
(LW × 1.042)
lost by 4
vs TCU
22 (↓10)Ohio-St
AP=9
3-13.6528
(LW × 0.916)
won by 30
vs Illinois
23 (↓6)Cincinnati
AP=10
4-03.6440
(LW × 0.997)
won by 8
vs Fresno-St
24 (↓16)California
AP=24
3-13.5446
(LW × 0.773)
lost by 39
at Oregon
25 (↑19)Oklahoma
AP=8
2-13.4533
(LW × 1.489)
Bye
26 (↓11)Washington2-23.3632
(LW × 0.881)
lost by 20
at Stanford
27 (↓5)Michigan
AP=22
4-03.2502
(LW × 1.008)
won by 3
vs Indiana
28 (↓12)Oklahoma-St
AP=14
3-13.2238
(LW × 0.857)
won by 50
vs Grambling-St
29 (↑8)Georgia
AP=18
3-13.2037
(LW × 1.289)
won by 3
vs Arizona-St
30 (-)Purdue1-33.1887
(LW × 1.122)
lost by 3
vs Notre-Dame
31 (↑18)Notre-Dame
AP=rv(7)
3-13.1390
(LW × 1.461)
won by 3
at Purdue
32 (↑6)BYU
AP=20
3-13.1203
(LW × 1.257)
won by 19
vs Colorado-St
33 (↑20)South-Carolina
AP=rv(154)
3-13.0650
(LW × 1.567)
won by 6
vs Mississippi
34 (↑13)Utah
AP=rv(25)
3-13.0320
(LW × 1.362)
won by 16
vs Louisville


Other Notable Teams:
39 (↓14)Wisconsin
AP=rv(20)
4-02.9065
(LW × 0.971)
won by 8
vs Michigan-St
42 (↓2)UCLA
AP=rv(41)
3-02.7364
(LW × 1.132)
Bye
45 (↓18)Missouri
AP=rv(175)
4-02.5913
(LW × 0.885)
won by 10
at Nevada
49 (↓15)Arizona-St
AP=rv(4)
2-12.4233
(LW × 0.900)
lost by 3
at Georgia
52 (↓26)Mississippi
AP=21
2-12.2944
(LW × 0.767)
lost by 6
at South-Carolina
55 (↓24)North-Carolina
AP=rv(2)
3-12.2376
(LW × 0.799)
lost by 17
at Georgia-Tech

Comments:

  • It's still early, so take these rankings with more than the usual grain of salt.

  • Still, the Gators' toughest opponent so far was Tennessee (#53, not listed). APR doesn't take into account last seasons' successes, so they are ranked out of the top 10.