Thursday, October 4, 2012

NFL Q1 Strength of Schedule

This table is APR's first quarter strength of schedule results. Each team's "unplayed" strength of schedule was computed by combining the power index value of every team remaining on the schedule (using the week 4 power index values of each team). Similarly, the "played" strength of schedule was computed using the power index of teams already played.

A higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

RankTeamSOS
unplayed
RankSOS
played
1Lions0.9797170.9138
2Rams0.9658130.9270
3Bills0.9422290.8227
449ers0.9418190.8934
5Seahawks0.9404100.9344
6Cardinals0.937820.9833
7Vikings0.9330200.8816
8Jets0.9285160.9194
9Bears0.9268230.8670
10Patriots0.9225150.9195
11Packers0.9214110.9317
12Titans0.904850.9575
13Redskins0.9040270.8267
14Giants0.9021250.8333
15Dolphins0.901230.9784
16Saints0.8935320.7879
17Texans0.8930210.8802
18Jaguars0.887210.9851
19Cowboys0.8860140.9241
20Chiefs0.8854280.8232
21Ravens0.883290.9400
22Browns0.881780.9436
23Bengals0.8808220.8735
24Steelers0.8723180.8999
25Colts0.868270.9503
26Panthers0.8673260.8319
27Chargers0.8543310.8017
28Buccaneers0.8498240.8345
29Eagles0.849760.9539
30Raiders0.8275120.9282
31Falcons0.8270300.8107
32Broncos0.816240.9705

Comments:

  • More bad news for the Lions. Their schedule doesn't look that bad. I think it's just more there really aren't many easy opponents on it (and given the way the Lions lost to the Titans and Vikings, I'm not sure what would qualify as an easy opponent for them).

  • It won't be getting easier for the Jets, either. They still have 3 more games against the NFC West, none of which look like push-overs anymore.

  • The Bills have the biggest swing from easiest to hardest. Which is not good news for a team that's only beaten the Chiefs and Browns so far.

  • Are the Eagles the best team in the NFC East? They're the only team (so far) to have a win outside the division and bad NFC South teams. If they can stop the turnovers, they could have an easy path to winning the NFC East.

  • The Falcons are benefitting from a (so far) pretty weak division. APR has the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Saints all in the bottom 5 teams, and the Falcons sill have 5 divisional games left to play.

  • The Broncos have the biggest swing from hardest to easiest. They have yet to play the Saints, Panthers, Chiefs (twice), Buccaneers, and Browns. So, yeah. Peyton Manning should have a chance to make another playoff run this year.