Wednesday, November 19, 2014

NFL Week 11 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Chiefs @
Raiders
Chiefs
ρ=1.3814
Chiefs*
δ=16.4
Chiefs
-7
Titans @
Eagles
Eagles
ρ=1.3284
Eagles
δ=11.4
Eagles
-11
Jaguars @
Colts
Colts
ρ=1.3271
Colts
δ=18.0
Colts
-13½
Washington @
49ers
49ers*
ρ=1.2376
49ers
δ=8.3
49ers
-9
Packers @
Vikings
Packers
ρ=1.2344
Packers*
δ=14.4
Packers
-9
Jets @
Bills
Bills
ρ=1.1719
Bills
δ=8.1
Bills
-4½
Cowboys @
Giants
Cowboys
ρ=1.1614
Cowboys*
δ=6.7
Cowboys
-3
Lions @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.1430
Patriots
δ=8.8
Patriots
-7½
Cardinals @
Seahawks
Cardinals
ρ=1.1203
Cardinals*
δ=1.2
Seahawks
-6½
Buccaneers @
Bears
Bears*
ρ=1.1141
Bears
δ=6.3
Bears
-5½
Browns @
Falcons
Browns
ρ=1.0870
Browns*
δ=4.3
Falcons
-3
Dolphins @
Broncos
Broncos
ρ=1.0586
Broncos
δ=0.7
Broncos
-7
Ravens @
Saints
Ravens
ρ=1.0532
Ravens*
δ=5.7
Saints
-3
Bengals @
Texans
Texans*
ρ=1.0455
Texans
δ=1.5
Texans
-1
Rams @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.0392
Chargers
δ=8.8
Chargers
-4

Bye: Steelers, Panthers

Comments:

  • Mostly unanimous picks this week.The Saints can't lose at home three times in a row, can they?

  • The Cardinals enter probably the hardest stretch of their schedule, including road games at all three NFC West opponents. Drew Stanton will need to pass a pretty tough test if the Cardinals are going to hang onto the best record in the NFC.

  • The Patriots have a tough stretch ahead of them too. After the Lions, they have road games against the Packers and Chargers, before finishing up with a trio of divisional games.

  • The Lions play the second of their back-to-back road games at conference leading teams. The good news for them is after this week, they've got what should be a pretty easy schedule before finishing up going into Lambeau, for what could be the contest that decides which team takes the NFC North this year.

  • I'm not really sure why the Line has taken the Falcons over the Browns this week. The Falcons are 0-6 in games against teams outside the very bad NFC South. And while I think the Browns have been playing a little over their heads, they really should be able to take care of the Falcons (although they really should've been able to take care of the Jaguars back in week 7, too).