Tuesday, September 15, 2009

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of Pythagorean Projection
Read this for a description of how I used it to pick games

Pick results for week 2.

Unanimous picks (11-2)

Correctly picked:

Chiefs @ Ravens
Lions @ Saints
Vikings @ Browns
Redskins @ Giants
Jaguars @ Colts
Rams @ Seahawks
Eagles & Panthers
Dolphins @ Falcons
Bears @ Packers
Bills @ Patriots
Chargers @ Raiders

Not so much:

49ers @ Cardinals
The Cardinals' defense played well in this game (especially given the two interceptions Kurt Warner threw). But the 49ers have been playing a lot better since Singletary took over as HC; I don't think this was a fluke win. The 49ers could have a real shot to win the NFC West this year, even if the Cardinals play at the same level they were last year (which, for the regular season, isn't a very high bar to cross).

Titans @ Steelers
According to the Pythagorean Projection, this was one of the closest matchups this weekend (second only to Bears @ Packers), so it's no surprise it was close.

Split Picks (Pythagoras 2-1) (Line 1-2)

Broncos (Pythagoras) @ Bengals (Line)
Both offenses struggled in this game; the score was 6-0 Broncos until the Bengals scored a go-ahead touchdown with less than a minute to play.

That should have been the game for the Broncos—before their final score, they had only one drive go for more than 34 yards. But the Bengals snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by tipping the ball right into the arms of Brandon Stokley, who caught the ball in stride, and was so wide open he could run a couple seconds off the clock before stepping into the end zone.

Jets (Pythagoras) @ Texans (Line)
You may have read Peter King picked the Texans to win the AFC South. I wonder if he'd like a do-over on that? The Jets have to be ecstatic over Mark Sanchez right now. Of course, with the Patriots, Titans, and Saints coming up, the party may not last long...

Cowboys (Line) @ Buccaneers (Pythagoras)
Pythagoras' prediction of the Cowboys demise may be a bit premature. Of course, Pythagorean Projection doesn't take into account the Buccaneers' late-season collapse last year, or their situation at quarterback.


That's a very respectable 13-3 for Pythagoras, and 12-4 for the line. I'm not going to follow Pythagoras week-by-week, but I will have a year-end summary like this one for 2007-2008. I will be following the line picks week by week, same as last year.

New power rankings, and Week 2 picks to come!