Hey, everybody, it's time for another season of football! As usual for week 1, the picks are based on each team's Pythagorean Projection values. Picks using APR and SRS will start up in week 2.
| Game | Pythag (std) | Pythag (R/H) | Line | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Bills | Patriots (0.4100) | Patriots (0.3120) | Patriots -7½ | |
| Eagles @ Redskins | Redskins (0.3176) | Redskins (0.3983) | Redskins -3½ | |
| Seahawks @ Panthers | Seahawks (0.2840) | Seahawks (0.1979) | Seahawks -3 | |
| Titans @ Steelers | Steelers (0.2392) | Steelers (0.4113) | Steelers -7 | |
| Ravens @ Broncos | Broncos (0.1843) | Broncos (0.4154) | Broncos -9 | |
| Raiders @ Colts | Colts (0.1842) | Colts (0.4409) | Colts -9½ | |
| Falcons @ Saints | Falcons (0.1808) | Falcons (0.0740) | Saints -3 | |
| Giants @ Cowboys | Giants (0.1645) | Cowboys (0.0244) | * | Cowboys -3 |
| Buccaneers @ Jets | Buccaneers (0.1570) | Buccaneers (0.1094) | Buccaneers -3 | |
| Vikings @ Lions | Vikings (0.1447) | Vikings (0.0190) | Lions -4½ | |
| Texans @ Chargers | Texans (0.1322) | Texans (0.1266) | Texans -3½ | |
| Cardinals @ Rams | Rams (0.1104) | Rams (0.1971) | Rams -5 | |
| Packers @ 49ers | 49ers (0.0625) | 49ers (0.2857) | 49ers -4½ | |
| Dolphins @ Browns | Dolphins (0.0584) | Browns (0.1912) | * | Browns -1 |
| Bengals @ Bears | Bears (0.0556) | Bears (0.0468) | Bears -3 | |
| Chiefs @ Jaguars | Jaguars (0.0519) | Jaguars (0.0266) | Chiefs -3½ |
Comments:
The Browns are favored to win?! There was no line for this game for quite a while. I don't really know why, and I'm not sure I belive it yet. I will check on this one later in the week. Update: well, it's Saturday afternoon, and the sports books (the ones that aren't saying pick 'em, anyway) are saying Browns -1½. So Browns it is.
The Bills' quarterback woes continue. Erstwhile starter Ryan Fitzpatrick has gone to the Titans, which means the Bills have a choice between their injured first-round pick E.J. Manuel and undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel. The Pats should easily cover 7½ points, unless maybe Tom Brady throws 4 interceptions again. And maybe, even then.
This is one of those can't-let-it-slip-away road games that I was talking about for the Seahawks. They're probably not going to have an easier road opponent all season.
Man, Mile High is gonna be rocking Thursday night. The Broncos don't have any reason to show mercy, so this game has the potential to get very, very ugly for the Ravens.
I'm a little surprised the Line is favoring the Lions over the Vikings. The Vikings swept this series last year, and with the addition of Greg Jennings to help Ponder's passing game, they could be even more of a threat this year. It won't be good news for the Vikings' playoff hopes if they lose this game.
Last year, the Cardinals defense and special teams kept them in a lot of games, including last year's Cardinals @ Rams match-up. If the defense and special teams can take up where they left off, and if Carson Palmer can rise at least to the level of game manager, this is a game the Cardinals could win. A couple big "ifs", so this game will likely be an early indication of how the Cardinals' season will go.
The way the Packers' last visit to the 49ers went, I think it'll be fairly impressive if the Packers are within one score at the end of the game.
The Packers had a profoundly unimpressive preseason, largely due to their awful slate of backup quarterbacks. But the defense didn't look that great either, and just like in their playoff matchup last January, the Packers' defense will have to step up for them to have a chance to win.
