NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-5)

Right:

Giants @ Panthers
Texans @ Broncos
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
Patriots @ Ravens

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Saints

The Saints' defense continues to be the worst in the league, allowing on average 477 yards per game. They've actually been getting worse every week. And while the Saints' offense has been putting up points, it hasn't been at the same rate as last year, and it hasn't been nearly enough.

Bengals @ Redskins

The Redskins' defense is 3rd-worst in the league in terms of yards allowed, 4th-worst in terms of points allowed. RG3 didn't have a great game, but it makes it really hard for any quarterback to come away with a win when his defense allows 38 points.

Lions @ Titans

The Lions' defense allowed Jake Locker to have a career day: 378 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 0 sacks, and 6 drives that ended in a score.

49ers @ Vikings

Somehow the Vikings' defense managed to make Alex Smith look like his old (bad) self. Smith had the fewest completions, fewest passing yards, fewest touchdowns, and most interceptions of the season.

Steelers @ Raiders

In the first half, the Steelers' defense did a pretty good job stopping the Raiders. But because of a lack of offensive production, they only lead by 3 at half time. In the second half, the Steeler's defense just came apart: the Raiders scored every time they had the ball. The Raiders only outscored the Steelers by 6 points in the second half, but because the game was so close at halftime, that's all they needed to win.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-3, SRS: 5-2, Line: 3-4)

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)

The Chargers first half on offense: punt, punt, fumble, interception. Their second half: field goal, interception, punt, punt, fumble, end of game. Nobody wins games like that.

Jets (Line) @ Dolphins (APR, SRS)

A close game that went to overtime, so there's a lot of things that could've made the difference here. I'm going to go with Ryan Tannehill's pasing numbers: 16/36 196 yards and 1 interception. The Dolphins will need better performances from Tannehill to win many games this year.

Bills (Line) @ Browns (APR, SRS)

Brandon Weeden had another bad day passing (27/43 237, 1 td and 2 interceptions). And the Browns only had 33 rushing yards. Somehow the Browns were in this game anyway, until the Bills finally put it away with a 4th-quarter touchdown.

Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

Another close game that really could've went either way. Some key stats: Andrew Luck threw more incompletions (24) than Blaine Gabbert threw passes (21). Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown. And somehow the Colts' defense let Gabbert throw an 80-yard touchdown pass that put the Jaguars ahead to stay.

Packers (Line) @ Seahawks (APR, SRS)

Apart from the officiating, what did I think of the game? 1) There is absolutely no excuse for 8 first-half sacks. 2) Did McCarthy somehow forget about Cedric Benson for the first half? I was calling for more running almost from the start. 3) What should the defense do on a Hail Mary? Knock it down! Going for the interception there was just stupid.

Eagles (Line) @ Cardinals (APR, SRS)

The Cardinals' defense just shut the Eagles down in this game. The Eagles only had 2 drives longer than 45 yards (one of which ended with a fumble, returned the length of the field for a touchdown). And Kevin Kolb managed probably his best game as a Cardinal, taking advantages of the short fields the defense produced, and keeping the Eagles offense off the field.

Rams (APR) @ Bears (SRS, Line)

The Rams' defense might be OK, but their offense is terrible. 6 sacks, 17 incomplete passes, including 2 interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), and just one drive longer than 39 yards. Even with the best defense in the league, that won't win many games.

Totals

Not a great week for anybody. This is the second time since I started fspi that the Line had a result under 0.500. (Here's the first.)

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	8	-	8	14	-	18	43.8%
SRS	9	-	7	14	-	18	43.8%
Line	7	-	9	17	-	15	53.1%

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Update: oops... I just noticed I entered the wrong score for the Colts, which inadvertently gave them a win. Updated power rankings below. (Is there some way I can blame this on the replacement refs?)

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑2)	Texans	1.3116 (LW × 1.0968)	3-0	Won by 6 @ Broncos
2 (↑2)	Cardinals	1.2249 (LW × 1.0617)	3-0	Won by 21 vs Eagles
3 (↓1)	Seahawks	1.1667 (LW × 0.9313)	2-1	Won by 2 vs Packers
4 (↑3)	Falcons	1.1405 (LW × 1.0824)	3-0	Won by 24 @ Chargers
5 (↑3)	Broncos	1.1231 (LW × 1.0801)	1-2	Lost by 6 vs Texans
6 (↑3)	Ravens	1.0388 (LW × 1.0015)	2-1	Won by 1 vs Patriots
7 (↑8)	Patriots	1.0238 (LW × 1.0615)	1-2	Lost by 1 @ Ravens
8 (↓2)	Steelers	1.0222 (LW × 0.9614)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Raiders
9 (↑12)	Jets	0.9939 (LW × 1.2271)	2-1	Won by 3 @ Dolphins
10 (↓9)	49ers	0.9906 (LW × 0.7290)	2-1	Lost by 11 @ Vikings
11 (↑1)	Packers	0.9860 (LW × 0.9676)	1-2	Lost by 2 @ Seahawks
12 (↑5)	Dolphins	0.9828 (LW × 1.0523)	1-2	Lost by 3 vs Jets
13 (↑9)	Vikings	0.9765 (LW × 1.2072)	2-1	Won by 11 vs 49ers
14 (↓3)	Eagles	0.9688 (LW × 0.9372)	2-1	Lost by 21 @ Cardinals
15 (↓2)	Bears	0.9628 (LW × 0.9845)	2-1	Won by 17 vs Rams
16 (↓2)	Cowboys	0.9593 (LW × 0.9901)	2-1	Won by 6 vs Buccaneers
17 (↑11)	Jaguars	0.9226 (LW × 1.2474)	1-2	Won by 5 @ Colts
18 (↑1)	Giants	0.8953 (LW × 1.0394)	2-1	Won by 29 @ Panthers
19 (↑7)	Raiders	0.8913 (LW × 1.1756)	2-1	Won by 3 vs Steelers
20 (↑7)	Bills	0.8750 (LW × 1.1767)	2-1	Won by 10 @ Browns
21 (↓3)	Bengals	0.8618 (LW × 0.9989)	2-1	Won by 7 @ Redskins
22 (↑7)	Colts	0.8378 (LW × 1.1470)	1-2	Lost by 5 vs Jaguars
23 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8339 (LW × 1.0724)	1-2	Lost by 24 vs Falcons
24 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.8119 (LW × 1.0605)	1-2	Lost by 6 @ Cowboys
25 (↓20)	Lions	0.7699 (LW × 0.7014)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Titans
26 (↓16)	Rams	0.7433 (LW × 0.7184)	1-2	Lost by 17 @ Bears
27 (↓4)	Browns	0.7328 (LW × 0.9274)	0-3	Lost by 10 vs Bills
28 (↓12)	Redskins	0.7076 (LW × 0.7357)	1-2	Lost by 7 vs Bengals
29 (↑2)	Titans	0.7026 (LW × 1.2141)	1-2	Won by 3 vs Lions
30 (↑2)	Chiefs	0.6922 (LW × 1.1984)	1-2	Won by 3 @ Saints
31 (↓11)	Panthers	0.6832 (LW × 0.8410)	1-2	Lost by 29 vs Giants
32 (↓2)	Saints	0.5825 (LW × 0.8417)	0-3	Lost by 3 vs Chiefs

Comments:

What an awful week for officiating.

• The replacement referees somehow gave the 49ers an extra timeout and two challenges they should not have had. Somehow that didn't cost the Vikings the game.

• And then on Monday night, a very marginal roughing the passer cost the Packers an interception. Another call of defensive pass interference that really should've been on the offense kept the same drive going, and then on the final play, a really explicit case of offensive pass interference was missed, and the pass was somehow called a touchdown instead of an interception.

• This situation with the replacement referees is an embarrassment to the league, and it needs to be resolved now.

• I'll have more to say tomorrow about football-related events not involving officiating.

• Update: The NFL doubles-down on a bad decision.

1992 + 20

20 years ago this month, the Packers were 24 years removed from the glory years of the 1960s. In that interregnum, they posted just 5 winning seasons, and two playoff appearances. Their one playoff win came in the strike-shortened season of 1982.

In 1991, the Packers hired Ron Wolf to be their general manager. Wolf made some sweeping changes: he brought in Mike Holmgren to be head coach, traded for quarterback Brett Favre, and brought in some big-name free agents like Reggie White, Santana Dotson, and Sean Jones.

Those changes had an immediate impact. In 1992 and 1993, the Packers posted back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since the end of the Lombardi era. Every year, they had more success, returning to the playoffs, winning their division, and culminating in 1996 with a victory in Super Bowl XXXI.

The Packers returned to the Super Bowl in the 1997 season, but the loss in that game was a portent of a team already in decline. In 1998, the Packers lost a home game for the first time since week 1 of the 1995 season. As a wildcard in the playoffs, they were 1-and-done for the first time since the start of the Holmgren era.

After the 1998 season, Mike Holmgren left to be Head Coach and General Manager of the Seattle Seahawks. Reggie White had played his last game as a Packer, and many of the other players that made up the 1996 championship team were either retired or gone in free agency by the start of the 1999 season. Following the 2000 season, GM Ron Wolf retired as well.

Comparisons between the Lombardi and Holmgren eras are inevitable. In terms of championships won, there can be no question that Vince Lombardi was far more successful. But along with a victory in Super Bowl XXXI, Mike Holmgren has some successes that Vince Lombardi never accomplished:

• Holmgren had a number of assistant coaches (Jon Gruden, Dick Jauron, Steve Marriucci, Jim Mora, Marty Mornhinweg, Andy Reid, Ray Rhodes, Mike Sherman, and Jim Zorn) that went on to be head coaches in their own right, to varying degrees of success.

• Perhaps more important, the Packers didn't plunge back into mediocrity after Holmgren left. In the 13 seasons played since he left, the Packers have had just two losing seasons. They've made it to the playoffs 8 times, and won Super Bowl XLV.

There are very few teams in the league that can match the level of winning seasons, playoff appearances, and Super Bowl victories the Packers have enjoyed in the last 20 years. In spite of the sweeping changes in players, coaches, and managers, the Packer era that began in 1992 continues to this day.

NFL Week 3 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Lions @ Titans	Lions ρ=1.8966	Lions* δ=34.4	Lions -3
49ers @ Vikings	49ers ρ=1.6797	49ers* δ=25.1	49ers -7½
Steelers @ Raiders	Steelers ρ=1.4024	Steelers* δ=19.1	Steelers -4½
Falcons @ Chargers	Falcons ρ=1.3551	Falcons* δ=10.0	Chargers -3
Buccaneers @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.2656	Cowboys δ=3.8	Cowboys -7
Packers @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.2292	Seahawks δ=2.2	Packers -3
Chiefs @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.1983	Saints δ=4.6	Saints -8½
Jets @ Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.1530	Dolphins δ=10.1	Jets -3
Texans @ Broncos	Texans* ρ=1.1501	Texans* δ=13.4	Texans -1½
Eagles @ Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.1161	Cardinals δ=6.1	Eagles -4
Bengals @ Redskins	Redskins ρ=1.1148	Redskins δ=8.2	Redskins -3½
Patriots @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0755	Ravens δ=9.5	Ravens -2½
Bills @ Browns	Browns ρ=1.0626	Browns δ=3.5	Bills -3
Giants @ Panthers	Giants ρ=1.0603	Giants δ=5.7	Giants -1½
Rams @ Bears	Rams ρ=1.0581	Bears δ=5.6	Bears -8
Jaguars @ Colts	Jaguars* ρ=1.0127	Jaguars* δ=6.3	Colts -3

Comments:

• I guess the 49ers are only getting 7½ points because they're plaing on the road? The Vikings look to be well on their way to another early first round pick this year. Unless the 49ers stumble badly, this should be an easy win for them.

• And the Lions are only getting 3 points over the Titans?! As I observed in the power rankings, only the Saints and Chiefs have given up more points than the Titans this year. The Titans' run defense looks particularly suspect; it could be a very good Sunday for Kevin Smith.

• Winning at Seattle has been a challenge, even in the seasons when the Seahawks have struggled. The Packers' defense is going to have to have another dominating, wire-to-wire game to give them a chance to win. If the Seahawks manage to establish a 2-score lead, this game is probably over.

• Losers of Chiefs @ Saints and Jaguars @ Colts should be excellent candidates to secure a top 5 draft pick next April.

• I like APR's pick of the Cardinals this week. Especially playing at home, I think they can shut down the Eagles' offense. It's just a question of whether Kevin Kolb and the offense can put up enough points to put this one away.

• We should get some idea this week of how good the Rams defense is. Jay Cutler could be in for another long day.

NFL Week 2 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

The Texans and Cardinals are the only road teams to win this week.

Unanimous Picks (3-5)

Right:

Texans @ Jaguars
Titans @ Chargers
Lions @ 49ers

Wrong:

Cardinals @ Patriots

Once again, the Cardinals' special teams (blocked punt) and defense (1 interception and 4 sacks) carried the day. The Patriots offense was held out of the endzone for almost the whole game, and only had one drive longer than 47 yards.

Redskins @ Rams

Has Jeff Fisher already made a difference for the Rams? They came very close to beating the Lions in week 1, and brought everyones' favorite rookie down to Earth in week 2.

Vikings @ Colts

The Vikings are going to need a lot more than 60 yards out of Adrian Peterson to be much of a threat to anybody.

Raiders @ Dolphins

Carson Palmer: 50% completion rate, 1 interception. Reggie Bush: 172 yards rushing, 2 touchdowns. How did the Chargers only get 32 yards rushing against this same Raiders defense?

Cowboys @ Seahawks

The good news for the Cowboys is they didn't lose this game because of late mistakes by Tony Romo. The bad news is this game was off the rails for the Cowboys right from the start. Their first three drives ended with a lost fumble, a blocked punt, and an interception. The Cowboys didn't turn it over after that, but couldn't move the ball at all, either.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-5, SRS: 2-6, Line: 7-1)

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)

Jay Cutler was sacked 7(!) times and threw 4 interceptions. I thought the Bears would have a chance to challenge for the NFC North, but not with that o-line, they won't. In related news, the Colts' defense isn't very good without Dwight Freeney

Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

It's not much of a shock that the Giants managed to beat the Buccaneers at home. It is a shock that they needed 500 yards passing and 25 4th-quarter points to get it done. On a related note, the resurgence of the Buccaneers' defense appears to be greatly exagerated.

Saints (Line) @ Panthers (APR, SRS)

The Saints are just in a tail-spin. Their offense has regressed from last year, and their defense is worst in the league. They're just not going to win many games at all when that defense is giving up 35 or more points every week.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

So, it turns out that the Jets can't score 48 points when they're facing a real defense. And (unsrurpsingly), their defense struggled without Darrelle Revis,

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Bengals (Line)

The good news for Browns' QB Brandon Weeden is he had a much better outing this week (26/37, 322 yards, 2 tds and 0 ints). The bad news is Andy Dalton had a better week. The Browns just aren't good enough to win when their defense gives up 34 points.

Chiefs (SRS) @ Bills (APR, Line)

The Chiefs offense is stil awful. They only had one drive longer than 46 yards before garbage time. And through 2 games, they've given up more points (75) than any other team in the league except the Saints.

Broncos (APR) @ Falcons (SRS, Line)

So I guess this was Manning being bad Manning: 3 interceptions and a lost fumble in the first quarter. The good news was the Falcons were only able to leverage that into 13 points. The bad news was, the Falcons were able to add a couple touchdowns, and the Broncos come back just ran out of time.

Ravens (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)

A surprisingly close game, especially considering the Eagles had 4 more turnovers in this game. But the Ravens had a couple turnovers of their own, and settled too many times for field goals.

Totals

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	6	-	10	6	-	10	37.5%
SRS	5	-	11	5	-	11	31.3%
Line	10	-	6	10	-	6	62.5%

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	49ers	1.3588 (LW × 1.1869)	2-0	Won by 8 vs Lions
2 (↑15)	Seahawks	1.2527 (LW × 1.2924)	1-1	Won by 20 vs Cowboys
3 (↑5)	Texans	1.1959 (LW × 1.1100)	2-0	Won by 20 @ Jaguars
4 (↑7)	Cardinals	1.1538 (LW × 1.0713)	2-0	Won by 2 @ Patriots
5 (↑6)	Lions	1.0976 (LW × 1.0191)	1-1	Lost by 8 @ 49ers
6 (↑16)	Steelers	1.0633 (LW × 1.2993)	1-1	Won by 17 vs Jets
7 (↓2)	Falcons	1.0537 (LW × 0.9688)	2-0	Won by 6 vs Broncos
8 (↓4)	Broncos	1.0398 (LW × 0.9132)	1-1	Lost by 6 @ Falcons
9 (↑7)	Ravens	1.0373 (LW × 0.9743)	1-1	Lost by 1 @ Eagles
10 (↑7)	Rams	1.0347 (LW × 1.0675)	1-1	Won by 3 vs Redskins
11 (↓5)	Eagles	1.0337 (LW × 0.9547)	2-0	Won by 1 vs Ravens
12 (↑13)	Packers	1.0191 (LW × 1.5205)	1-1	Won by 13 vs Bears
13 (↓5)	Bears	0.9779 (LW × 0.9077)	1-1	Lost by 13 @ Packers
14 (↓11)	Cowboys	0.9689 (LW × 0.8464)	1-1	Lost by 20 @ Seahawks
15 (↓8)	Patriots	0.9645 (LW × 0.8912)	1-1	Lost by 2 vs Cardinals
16 (↓15)	Redskins	0.9618 (LW × 0.8402)	1-1	Lost by 3 @ Rams
17 (↑10)	Dolphins	0.9339 (LW × 1.5064)	1-1	Won by 22 vs Raiders
18 (↑12)	Bengals	0.8627 (LW × 1.4413)	1-1	Won by 7 vs Browns
19 (↑5)	Giants	0.8613 (LW × 1.2825)	1-1	Won by 7 vs Buccaneers
20 (↓3)	Panthers	0.8124 (LW × 0.8381)	1-1	Won by 8 vs Saints
21 (↓13)	Jets	0.8100 (LW × 0.7518)	1-1	Lost by 17 @ Steelers
22 (↓11)	Vikings	0.8089 (LW × 0.7511)	1-1	Lost by 3 @ Colts
23 (-)	Browns	0.7902 (LW × 1.0034)	0-2	Lost by 7 @ Bengals
24 (↓7)	Chargers	0.7776 (LW × 0.8022)	1-1	Won by 28 vs Titans
25 (↓14)	Buccaneers	0.7655 (LW × 0.7108)	1-1	Lost by 7 @ Giants
26 (↓15)	Raiders	0.7582 (LW × 0.7040)	1-1	Lost by 22 @ Dolphins
27 (-)	Bills	0.7436 (LW × 1.1995)	1-1	Won by 18 vs Chiefs
28 (↓11)	Jaguars	0.7397 (LW × 0.7631)	0-2	Lost by 20 vs Texans
29 (↓2)	Colts	0.7304 (LW × 1.1782)	1-1	Won by 3 vs Vikings
30 (↓5)	Saints	0.6921 (LW × 1.0326)	0-2	Lost by 8 @ Panthers
31 (↑1)	Titans	0.5787 (LW × 1.1525)	0-2	Lost by 28 @ Chargers
32 (↓1)	Chiefs	0.5776 (LW × 1.1325)	0-2	Lost by 18 @ Bills

Comments:

• 2-0 teams: 49ers, Texans, Cardinals(!), Falcons, Eagles.

• 0-2 teams: Browns, Jaguars, Saints, Titans, Chiefs

• And yeah, that's 3 NFC West teams in the top 5, and all 4 in the top 10. There's still a lot of football left to play, but that's not even close to the worst division in the NFL anymore.

• The Eagles could very well be the worst 2-0 team we've seen in a long time. Through 2 games, they've given up 6 interceptions, 3 lost fumbles, and 4 sacks. The worst of that was in week 1, but it's certainly been a couple very ugly wins for the Eagles.

• In spite of a sloppy game in week 1, there are some signs the Packers' defense has made some significant improvements over last year. They've had 4+ sacks in both games (only one such game in 2011), and thanks to a 7-sack performance this week, are already more than a third of the way toward matching their sack total of 2011.

  Given that the Packers' defense has a significant population of rookies and free agents, it seems likely there will be at least a few more rough games defensively this year. But if they can pull things together by the second half of the season, the Packers should have a chance to make a solid playoff run this year.

• Through 2 games, the Titans have the worst point differential (-49), the fewest total points scored (23), and the fewest rushing yards (58) of any team in the league. And only the Chiefs and Saints have given up more points. Unless things turn around fast, it's going to be a long, disappointing season in Tennessee this year.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Titans @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.9304	Chargers δ=19.0	Chargers -6
Vikings @ Colts	Vikings ρ=1.7372	Vikings δ=23.0	Vikings -1
Raiders @ Dolphins	Raiders ρ=1.7372	Raiders δ=22.0	Raiders -2½
Bears @ Packers	Bears ρ=1.6075	Bears δ=28.0	Packers -6
Buccaneers @ Giants	Buccaneers ρ=1.6036	Buccaneers δ=13.0	Giants -7½
Saints @ Panthers	Panthers ρ=1.4461	Panthers δ=2.0	Saints -2½
Jets @ Steelers	Jets ρ=1.3166	Jets δ=32.0	Steelers -6
Browns @ Bengals	Browns ρ=1.3157	Browns δ=30.0	Bengals -7
Chiefs @ Bills	Bills ρ=1.2156	Chiefs δ=4.0	Bills -3
Redskins @ Rams	Redskins ρ=1.1811	Redskins δ=12.0	Redskins -3
Cowboys @ Seahawks	Cowboys ρ=1.1810	Cowboys δ=11.0	Cowboys -3
Texans @ Jaguars	Texans ρ=1.1116	Texans δ=23.0	Texans -7½
Lions @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.0629	49ers δ=4.0	49ers -7
Broncos @ Falcons	Broncos ρ=1.0469	Falcons δ=4.0	Falcons -3
Ravens @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.0171	Ravens δ=30.0	Eagles -2½
Cardinals @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0048	Patriots δ=17.0	Patriots -14

Comments:

• The Giants, Packers, Saints, Bengals, and Steelers are all playoff teams from last year in danger of falling to 0-2. Long-time readers will know an 0-2 start is almost always a very bad sign.

• The Giants could be in particular trouble. Their game against the Buccaneers appeared to be one of the few soft spots in an otherwise very tough schedule. But the Buccaneers' resurgent defense might make this a very tough battle. No Super Bowl-winning team has started the following season 0-2 since the Elway-less Broncos in 1999.

• The Lions and Eagles both needed late scores against (presumably) weak opponents to come away with a win last week. They're both facing much tougher opponents this time around, so we'll see how much of Stafford's and Vick's troubles were just early season jitters, and how much they the sign of things to come.

• The Browns' 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden had the toughest outing of all the rookie quarterbacks last Sunday, and there's already been calls to switch back to Colt McCoy. Given that Weeden was a first round draft pick, the Browns have to give him a chance to succeed. But if he doesn't do better than a 34% completion rate and 4 interceptions a game, that chance can't last very long.

• The good news for Kevin Kolb is he looked very good in relief of John Skelton, and will have at least one game to re-establish himself as the permanent starter. The bad news is the Cardinals haven't beat the Patriots since 1991, and I don't see any reason to think that streak will end Sunday. Still, as long as Kolb stays healthy and doesn't look completely awful, he should have a good chance at a second start in week 3.