NFL: Week 4 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
49ers @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.7346	Falcons δ=30.2	Falcons -7
Bears @ Giants	Bears ρ=1.5229	Bears δ=19.8	Giants -3½
Broncos @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.4966	Titans δ=18.3	Titans -6½
Panthers @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.4688	Saints δ=21.8	Saints -13½
Jets @ Bills	Jets ρ=1.3515	Jets δ=16.6	Jets -4½
Lions @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.3292	Packers δ=14.0	Packers -14½
Colts @ Jaguars	Colts ρ=1.2877	Colts δ=18.1	Colts -8½
Ravens @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.2305	Steelers δ=19.8	Steelers -1½
Cardinals @ Chargers	Cardinals ρ=1.2102	Chargers δ=8.4	Chargers -8
Redskins @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.2060	Eagles δ=10.0	Eagles -6
Seahawks @ Rams	Rams ρ=1.1091	Seahawks δ=3.6	Seahawks -1
Texans @ Raiders	Raiders ρ=1.0468	Texans δ=8.4	Texans -3
Bengals @ Browns	Bengals ρ=1.0457	Browns δ=1.0	Bengals -3
Patriots @ Dolphins	Patriots ρ=1.0161	Patriots δ=0.2	Patriots -1

Bye: Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, Buccaneers

Comments:

• 10 Unanimous picks this week—things are starting to settle down.

• The Line likes the Giants this week? Well, the Bears could be overrated, and they are traveling on a short week after a big divisional win. On the other hand, the Giants have given every indication that they're really bad this year.

• The Seahawks have a couple very questionable home wins, and a bad road loss to the not-very-good Broncos. I think the Rams' resurgent defense could be enough to give them an actual 2-game winning streak.

• Everybody likes the Patriots over the Dolphins. It will be something of a bellwether if the Pats do win—you have to go back to 2008 to find their last solid road win.

NFL: Week 3 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-4)

Right

Steelers @ Buccaneers
Bengals @ Panthers
Colts @ Broncos
Bills @ Patriots

Wrong

Cowboys @ Texans

The Cowboys looked much improved in this game, particularly their offensive line. Romo had good protection all game, and it showed: 23/30 for 284 yards, 2 TDs, and no sacks. Meanwhile, the Texans looked like the team in search of answers: 2 interceptions, 4 sacks, a lost fumble and 6 drives that didn't go 45 yards.

Redskins @ Rams

Do the Rams have a defense this year? So far they haven't given up more than 16 points in a game. Weird stat of the week: the Rams are 3-1 vs. the Redskins 2006-2010.

Chargers @ Seahawks

The Chargers give up two more long touchdowns on special teams. Which is really bad for an offense that (on the road, anyway) has yet to score 21 points.

Packers @ Bears

The Packers made a raft of mistakes in this game (penalties, kick return coverage, pass defense). The Bears made fewer mistakes, and were in a position to take advantage when the Packers made some of their biggest.

Split (APR: 4-4 SRS: 5-3 Line: 4-4)

Lions (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

Not what you'd call a perfect game for the Vikings (2 interceptions and a lost fumble), but the Lions (especially without Stafford) just aren't good enough to take advantage.

Raiders (SRS) @ Cardinals (APR, Line)

An ugly game that could've gone either way. As much as anything, Janikowski's three field goal misses (including what would've been the last-second game winner) are to blame for Oakland's loss.

Eagles (SRS, Line) @ Jaguars (APR)

How exactly did the Jaguars beat the Broncos in week 1? Since then, the Jags have given up 66 points, thrown 5 interceptions, lost two fumbles, and just looked bad generally.

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)

To be fair to the Browns, they were competitive in this game, and actually had the lead in the 4th quarter. But their defense gave up 10 points after that, and the offense just wasn't able to respond. They're going to need a better QB than Seneca Wallace (or, probably, Jake Delhomme) to get many wins.

49ers (Line) @ Chiefs (APR, SRS)

The Chiefs first solid win of the season makes them 3-0. It's hard to say how good they are, but clearly better than last year. And the 49ers... yikes. Whatever their protocol for game day is on the road, they need to change it. Now.

Falcons(APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

The good news for the Saints is that they scored 24 points on the Falcons defense that had allowed 22 points total in its first two games. The bad news is that's well short of the 35+ points per game they averaged in their 13 regular season wins last year, and short of what their own defense needed this week.

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

I'm not really sure why the Line liked the Giants in this game. They struggled to beat a very weak Panthers team, and got demolished by the Colts. They're just not very good. The Titans may have their issues as well, but when you can't stop Chris Johnson (125 yards, 2TD) or score a lot of points on their defense, it's hard to take advantage.

Jets (SRS) @ Dolphins (APR, Line)

I had a feeling APR had the Dolphins overrated. And while the Jets had a horrible game against the Ravens in week 1, they've now put up a couple very solid divisional wins. They could very well be the team to beat in the AFC East, especially if the Patriots continue to struggle on the road.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	8-8	16-16	50.0%
SRS	9-7	16-16	50.0%
Line	8-8	27-21	56.3%

NFL: Week 3 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑2)	Steelers	1.2902 (LW × 1.0672)	3-0	Won by 25 @ Buccaneers
2 (↑2)	Falcons	1.1912 (LW × 1.0514)	2-1	Won by 3 @ Saints
3 (↓1)	Packers	1.1145 (LW × 0.9035)	2-1	Lost by 3 @ Bears
4 (↑10)	Jets	1.1115 (LW × 1.1760)	2-1	Won by 8 @ Dolphins
5 (↑4)	Bears	1.0696 (LW × 1.0876)	3-0	Won by 3 vs Packers
6 (↑7)	Ravens	1.0485 (LW × 1.0992)	2-1	Won by 7 vs Browns
7 (↑8)	Titans	1.0481 (LW × 1.1154)	2-1	Won by 19 @ Giants
8 (↑11)	Patriots	0.9884 (LW × 1.1127)	2-1	Won by 8 vs Bills
9 (↓2)	Dolphins	0.9728 (LW × 0.9318)	2-1	Lost by 8 vs Jets
10 (↓9)	Chiefs	0.9677 (LW × 0.7509)	3-0	Won by 21 vs 49ers
11 (↑10)	Saints	0.9484 (LW × 1.1176)	2-1	Lost by 3 vs Falcons
12 (↑10)	Cardinals	0.9437 (LW × 1.1420)	2-1	Won by 1 vs Raiders
13 (↑3)	Eagles	0.9279 (LW × 0.9914)	2-1	Won by 25 @ Jaguars
14 (↑13)	Vikings	0.9235 (LW × 1.1956)	1-2	Won by 14 vs Lions
15 (↑9)	Cowboys	0.9008 (LW × 1.1103)	1-2	Won by 14 @ Texans
16 (↓6)	Colts	0.8868 (LW × 0.9112)	2-1	Won by 14 @ Broncos
17 (↑9)	Bengals	0.8774 (LW × 1.0876)	2-1	Won by 13 @ Panthers
18 (↑12)	Rams	0.8758 (LW × 1.2416)	1-2	Won by 14 vs Redskins
19 (↓11)	Buccaneers	0.8722 (LW × 0.8539)	2-1	Lost by 25 vs Steelers
20 (↑9)	Raiders	0.8674 (LW × 1.2015)	1-2	Lost by 1 @ Cardinals
21 (↓9)	Browns	0.8390 (LW × 0.8669)	0-3	Lost by 7 @ Ravens
22 (↓4)	Lions	0.8385 (LW × 0.9373)	0-3	Lost by 14 @ Vikings
23 (↓18)	Texans	0.8287 (LW × 0.7343)	2-1	Lost by 14 vs Cowboys
24 (↓1)	Bills	0.8224 (LW × 1.0033)	0-3	Lost by 8 @ Patriots
25 (↑3)	Seahawks	0.7897 (LW × 1.0243)	2-1	Won by 7 vs Chargers
26 (↓20)	Chargers	0.7798 (LW × 0.6994)	1-2	Lost by 7 @ Seahawks
27 (↓10)	Redskins	0.7694 (LW × 0.8525)	1-2	Lost by 14 @ Rams
28 (↓3)	Giants	0.7024 (LW × 0.8702)	1-2	Lost by 19 vs Titans
29 (↓9)	Broncos	0.7003 (LW × 0.8100)	1-2	Lost by 14 vs Colts
30 (↓19)	Jaguars	0.6887 (LW × 0.7105)	1-2	Lost by 25 vs Eagles
31 (↑1)	49ers	0.6867 (LW × 1.1446)	0-3	Lost by 21 @ Chiefs
32 (↓1)	Panthers	0.6457 (LW × 0.9430)	0-3	Lost by 13 vs Bengals

Comments:

• Yeah, that's starting to feel more like how things are.

• The Steelers are really good: the three teams they've beaten have (so far) only lost to the Steelers.

• And who would've guessed that the Bears and Chiefs would be the only other teams to make it to 3-0? Good news for all those teams struggling out of the gate—there's plenty of time to get things turned around.

• Given the lack of quality in the Colts upcoming opponents (Jaguars, Chiefs, and Redskins), they might have trouble breaking into the top 10 even if they make it to 5-1.

• Big movers: Chargers (-20), Jaguars (-19), Texans (-18), Vikings (+13).

NFL: Week 3 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
49ers @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=2.1479	Chiefs δ=42.6	49ers -1
Chargers @ Seahawks	Chargers ρ=1.4462	Chargers δ=21.9	Chargers -5½
Cowboys @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.3908	Texans δ=14.4	Texans -2½
Falcons @ Saints	Falcons ρ=1.3350	Falcons δ=33.1	Saints -4½
Redskins @ Rams	Redskins ρ=1.2794	Redskins δ=25.2	Redskins -3
Packers @ Bears	Packers ρ=1.2543	Packers δ=8.0	Packers -3
Steelers @ Buccaneers	Steelers ρ=1.1836	Steelers δ=14.4	Steelers -2½
Bengals @ Panthers	Bengals ρ=1.1781	Bengals δ=12.1	Bengals -3
Titans @ Giants	Titans ρ=1.1642	Titans δ=23.1	Giants -3
Lions @ Vikings	Lions ρ=1.1583	Lions δ=22.5	Vikings -10½
Raiders @ Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.1447	Raiders δ=1.0	Cardinals -4
Colts @ Broncos	Colts ρ=1.1258	Colts δ=9.0	Colts -6
Jets @ Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.1047	Jets δ=14.0	Dolphins -1½
Bills @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0838	Patriots δ=16.9	Patriots -13½
Eagles @ Jaguars	Jaguars ρ=1.0357	Eagles δ=2.5	Eagles -3
Browns @ Ravens	Browns ρ=1.0147	Browns δ=8.1	Ravens -10½

Comments:

• Mike Singletary will be real danger of losing his team if the 49ers can't get a road win against an opponent that they should handle easily.

• Packers @ Bears is just about as big a game as you could ask for in week 3: first place, an undefeated record, and a solid lead in the division all on the line.

• The Bears' season could be on the line, too. The last thing they need is a big loss at home just as they are starting to gain confidence in Martz' system.

• Lions @ Vikings is an interesting game, too, from a "how low can they go" point of view. The Lions have been competitive in both their games, and the Vikings—the way their offense has been playing, they could need a shut-out to win by 11 points.

NFL: Week 2 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (3-2)

Right

Bills @ Packers
Saints @ 49ers
Texans @ Redskins

Wrong

Ravens @ Bengals

Joe Flacco: 44% completion rate, 4 interceptions, and a sack. That's pretty much it, right there.

Patriots @ Jets

This is how the Jets were supposed to be this year: dominating on defense, with Sanchez efficient and more confident on the offensive side. The Patriots are looking very similar to last year: good at home; can't buy a win on the road.

Split (APR: 5-6 SRS: 4-7 Line: 6-5)

Eagles (Line) @ Lions (APR, SRS)

It's not surprising that the Eagles leave Detroit with a win. But it can't be good news for their defense that they've given up 59 points in their first two games.

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

Whatever the Texans did to the Colts last week, the Giants just couldn't make it a repeat performance. 4 sacks, 3 fumbles, and just one drive longer than 35 yards made it a tough day for the younger Manning.

Jaguars (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)

David Garrard was so bad in this game (15/23, 173 yards, 4 interceptions) he was pulled for Luke McCown. In related news, Luke McCown is still in the NFL.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)

Nothing went right for the Seahawks in this game. When they had the ball, they couldn't keep it (3 interceptions, 1 lost fumble). When they were playing defense, they couldn't get a stop (the Broncos had 5 scoring drives and a 37:27 edge in time of posession).

Rams (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)

The Raiders search for a quarterback continues. And two losses by a combined 6 points for Sam Bradford and the Rams.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

I thought the Cardinals' defense would keep them in this a lot more than they did. But maybe they just gave up when they saw how awful the offense was: only one drive longer than 40 yards (and that was a single 80 yard run). This is starting to look like a very long season for the Cardinals.

Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

APR and SRS picked the Bucs because they won last week, and the Panthers didn't. Why the line liked the Panthers, I cannot say. Matt Moore was terrible last week, and worse this week. He was finally pulled in the 4th quarter after getting sacked for the fourth time.

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)

Again, the Chiefs find a way to win on two critical plays: a recovered fumble and an interception return put 10 points on the scoreboard for the Chiefs, and the Browns just don't have enough to overcome.

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

That is what is known, technically, as "Bad Favre". 3 interceptions, a fumble lost in the end zone, and only 3 drives that went more than 45 yards. The Vikings are starting to look like they might not get to 8 wins this year.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

Is the Martz system working for the Bears? Cutler was a very efficient 21/29, 227 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. The Cowboys offense did better than last week, but not enough to keep up with the Bears.

Steelers (APR) @ Titans (SRS, Line)

Make no mistake—this win belongs to the Steelers' defense. Batch and Dixon were a combined 9/17 for 43 yards. If Rothelisberger can put some life in that offense when he comes back, the Steelers will be really hard to beat.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	8-8	8- 8	50.0%
SRS	7-9	7- 9	43.8%
Line	9-7	19-13	59.4%

NFL: Week 2 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑3)	Chiefs	1.2886 (LW × 1.1318)	2-0	Won by 2 @ Browns
2 (↓1)	Packers	1.2336 (LW × 1.0776)	2-0	Won by 27 vs Bills
3 (↑7)	Steelers	1.2089 (LW × 1.1225)	2-0	Won by 8 @ Titans
4 (↑13)	Falcons	1.1330 (LW × 1.1689)	1-1	Won by 34 vs Cardinals
5 (↓3)	Texans	1.1284 (LW × 0.9910)	2-0	Won by 3 @ Redskins
6 (↑16)	Chargers	1.1149 (LW × 1.3487)	1-1	Won by 25 vs Jaguars
7 (-)	Dolphins	1.0440 (LW × 0.9642)	2-0	Won by 4 @ Vikings
8 (↑2)	Buccaneers	1.0214 (LW × 0.9484)	2-0	Won by 13 @ Panthers
9 (↑1)	Bears	0.9835 (LW × 0.9132)	2-0	Won by 7 @ Cowboys
10 (↑14)	Colts	0.9732 (LW × 1.1845)	1-1	Won by 24 vs Giants
11 (↓7)	Jaguars	0.9693 (LW × 0.8513)	1-1	Lost by 25 @ Chargers
12 (↑5)	Browns	0.9679 (LW × 0.9985)	0-2	Lost by 2 vs Chiefs
13 (↓6)	Ravens	0.9538 (LW × 0.8809)	1-1	Lost by 5 @ Bengals
14 (↑12)	Jets	0.9451 (LW × 1.2001)	1-1	Won by 14 vs Patriots
15 (-)	Titans	0.9396 (LW × 0.8767)	1-1	Lost by 8 vs Steelers
16 (↑13)	Eagles	0.9359 (LW × 1.3935)	1-1	Won by 3 @ Lions
17 (↓7)	Redskins	0.9024 (LW × 0.8379)	1-1	Lost by 3 vs Texans
18 (↓1)	Lions	0.8946 (LW × 0.9230)	0-2	Lost by 3 vs Eagles
19 (↓13)	Patriots	0.8884 (LW × 0.8196)	1-1	Lost by 14 @ Jets
20 (↑2)	Broncos	0.8645 (LW × 1.0458)	1-1	Won by 17 vs Seahawks
21 (↓11)	Saints	0.8487 (LW × 0.7880)	2-0	Won by 3 @ 49ers
22 (↓15)	Cardinals	0.8264 (LW × 0.7631)	1-1	Lost by 34 @ Falcons
23 (↑3)	Bills	0.8197 (LW × 1.0408)	0-2	Lost by 27 @ Packers
24 (↓7)	Cowboys	0.8113 (LW × 0.8370)	0-2	Lost by 7 vs Bears
25 (↓22)	Giants	0.8071 (LW × 0.7088)	1-1	Lost by 24 @ Colts
26 (↑4)	Bengals	0.8067 (LW × 1.2772)	1-1	Won by 5 vs Ravens
27 (↓10)	Vikings	0.7724 (LW × 0.7968)	0-2	Lost by 4 vs Dolphins
28 (↓13)	Seahawks	0.7709 (LW × 0.7193)	1-1	Lost by 17 @ Broncos
29 (↑2)	Raiders	0.7219 (LW × 1.1830)	1-1	Won by 2 vs Rams
30 (↓4)	Rams	0.7053 (LW × 0.8957)	0-2	Lost by 2 @ Raiders
31 (↓6)	Panthers	0.6847 (LW × 0.8384)	0-2	Lost by 13 vs Buccaneers
32 (↓1)	49ers	0.5999 (LW × 0.9831)	0-2	Lost by 3 vs Saints

Comments:

• Chiefs at #1? Well, they are 2-0, which is about all APR sees right now. And helped by the Chargers win today.

• And the 2-0 Saints drop to #21! Well, close wins over a couple 0-2 opponents doesn't look very good (especially squeaking out a last-second 3-point win on the 49ers, after they got pasted 6-31 last week).

• And the 0-2 Browns at #12... but they do have close wins against a couple 2-0 opponents. That's how this is supposed to work. But wow, this has been a wacky couple weeks of football.

• No surprise, all the big movers are 1-1 teams: Giants (22), Chargers (16), Cardinals (14), Seahawks, Falcons, Eagles, Patriots (13).

• Pick results coming sometime Tuesday, followed by picks for next week.

NFL: Week 2 Game Picks

All line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Saints @ 49ers	Saints ρ=1.7648	Saints δ=30	Saints -5
Ravens @ Bengals	Ravens ρ=1.7144	Ravens δ=15	Ravens -1½
Bills @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.4536	Packers δ=12	Packers -13½
Eagles @ Lions	Lions ρ=1.4433	Lions δ=2	Eagles -4½
Giants @ Colts	Giants ρ=1.3858	Giants δ=23	Colts -5½
Jaguars @ Chargers	Jaguars ρ=1.3774	Jaguars δ=14	Chargers -8½
Patriots @ Jets	Patriots ρ=1.3764	Patriots δ=15	Patriots -2
Buccaneers @ Panthers	Buccaneers ρ=1.3187	Buccaneers δ=16	Panthers -3
Seahawks @ Broncos	Seahawks ρ=1.2966	Seahawks δ=32	Broncos -3½
Rams @ Raiders	Rams ρ=1.2905	Rams δ=21	Raiders -3½
Chiefs @ Browns	Chiefs ρ=1.1746	Chiefs δ=10	Browns -2
Dolphins @ Vikings	Dolphins ρ=1.1171	Dolphins δ=10	Vikings -5½
Cardinals @ Falcons	Cardinals ρ=1.1171	Cardinals δ=10	Falcons -6½
Bears @ Cowboys	Bears ρ=1.1111	Bears δ=11	Cowboys -8½
Texans @ Redskins	Texans ρ=1.0572	Texans δ=4	Texans -3
Steelers @ Titans	Steelers ρ=1.0049	Titans δ=19	Titans -5

Comments:

• Picks are based on the Week 1 power rankings.

• All 1-0 teams are ranked above all 0-1 teams, so there are some... odd picks, like the Dolphins over the Vikings.

• APR and SRS are agreed on all games except Steelers @ Titans.

• After the way the 49ers got clobbered on Sunday, I'm really surprised the Saints are only favored by 5.

• On the other hand, it says something about how bad the Bills looked that even after the Packers lost Ryan Grant, they're still favored by 13½.