NFL: Week 12 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble

Another week, another close win for the Falcons (+6).

ESPN somehow gives the Colts (+6) a 5-spot bump on their less-than-dominating win over the 4-7 Bills.

The Ravens (+6) have amassed a 9-2 record, but it's really not a good sign they played behind the 4-7 Chargers most of the game, and needed to convert 4th and 29 just to get to overtime.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-7)

The Panthers finally found another team they could beat. And some of their early-season based power is finally getting to the fall-off part of APR's weighting curve.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than the Broncos (-5).

NFL Week 12 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-4)

Right:

Texans @ Lions
Patriots @ Jets
Broncos @ Chiefs
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Ravens @ Chargers
49ers @ Saints
Vikings @ Bears
Raiders @ Bengals

Wrong:

Redskins @ Cowboys

The Cowboys followed what is getting to be a familiar script: turnovers and bad defense let their opponent sprint out to an early lead. Some late-game heroics made things interesting towards the end, but ultimately fell short.

Seahawks @ Dolphins

The Seahawks' defense gave up 435 yards to the Dolphins; only the Patriots gained more on them this season. Which is bad news for a team that's 2-5 when they give up 13 or more points.

Steelers @ Browns

The Steelers had 3 interceptions and 5 lost fumbles. Even the Browns can get a win when you spot them 8 turnovers.

Titans @ Jaguars

Chad Henne may not be a great quarterback, but it's starting to look like he's solidly better than Blaine Gabbert. Henne has led the Jaguars to their two highest-scoring results of the season, and their second win.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-1, SRS: 1-3, Line: 2-2)

Rams (APR) @ Cardinals (SRS, Line)

Ryan Lindley had some decent first-half drives, and actually managed a half-time lead. But four interceptions, including a couple of pick-6s, was way more than the Cardinals were able to overcome.

Panthers (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

I almost wonder if I misread the line when I was doing the picks last week. The Panthers aren't a very good team, but the Eagles (particularly their defense) are just awful.

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

The Packers continue to have many of the same issues that bounced them out of the playoffs last January: the offensive line barely slowed the Giants' pass rush, and the Packers' defense couldn't buy a stop. Even when they get all their playmakers back on the field and up to speed, the Packers' o-line issues may be a deal-breaker for another Super Bowl run.

Bills (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)

Like I said in the game picks, it would've been a shock for the Bills to win this. But they did manage to pull within a touchdown in the 4th quarter, and had a couple of chances to tie the game (and might have had a third, except their defense couldn't stop the Colts from running out the final 3:22 of the game).

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			97	-	62	-	1	60.9%
SRS	9	-	7			95	-	64	-	1	60.0%
Line	10	-	6			105	-	54	-	1	65.9%

NFL: Week 12 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Patriots	1.0561 (LW × 1.0195)	8-3	Won by 30 @ Jets
2 (↓1)	Broncos	1.0479 (LW × 0.9927)	8-3	Won by 8 @ Chiefs
3 (-)	49ers	1.0370 (LW × 1.0066)	8-2-1	Won by 10 @ Saints
4 (↑1)	Texans	1.0172 (LW × 0.9931)	10-1	Won by 3 @ Lions
5 (↑2)	Bears	0.9934 (LW × 1.0109)	8-3	Won by 18 vs Vikings
6 (↑4)	Giants	0.9855 (LW × 1.0394)	7-4	Won by 28 vs Packers
7 (↓3)	Packers	0.9854 (LW × 0.9616)	7-4	Lost by 28 @ Giants
8 (-)	Falcons	0.9684 (LW × 0.9921)	10-1	Won by 1 @ Buccaneers
9 (↓3)	Seahawks	0.9650 (LW × 0.9740)	6-5	Lost by 3 @ Dolphins
10 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9613 (LW × 1.0093)	9-2	Won by 3 @ Chargers
11 (-)	Buccaneers	0.9200 (LW × 0.9925)	6-5	Lost by 1 vs Falcons
12 (-)	Saints	0.9159 (LW × 0.9890)	5-6	Lost by 10 vs 49ers
13 (-)	Steelers	0.9132 (LW × 0.9939)	6-5	Lost by 6 @ Browns
14 (↑3)	Bengals	0.9100 (LW × 1.0285)	6-5	Won by 24 vs Raiders
15 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8817 (LW × 0.9654)	6-5	Lost by 18 @ Bears
16 (↑3)	Colts	0.8809 (LW × 1.0258)	7-4	Won by 7 vs Bills
17 (↓2)	Cowboys	0.8805 (LW × 0.9735)	5-6	Lost by 7 vs Redskins
18 (↑3)	Redskins	0.8793 (LW × 1.0295)	5-6	Won by 7 @ Cowboys
19 (↓3)	Lions	0.8761 (LW × 0.9882)	4-7	Lost by 3 vs Texans
20 (↑4)	Dolphins	0.8658 (LW × 1.0180)	5-6	Won by 3 vs Seahawks
21 (↓1)	Panthers	0.8650 (LW × 1.0109)	3-8	Won by 8 @ Eagles
22 (↓4)	Jets	0.8516 (LW × 0.9815)	4-7	Lost by 30 vs Patriots
23 (↑2)	Rams	0.8503 (LW × 1.0200)	4-6-1	Won by 14 @ Cardinals
24 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8471 (LW × 0.9934)	4-7	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
25 (↓2)	Bills	0.8429 (LW × 0.9903)	4-7	Lost by 7 @ Colts
26 (↑2)	Browns	0.8375 (LW × 1.0388)	3-8	Won by 6 vs Steelers
27 (↓1)	Titans	0.8222 (LW × 0.9914)	4-7	Lost by 5 @ Jaguars
28 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.7765 (LW × 0.9381)	4-7	Lost by 14 vs Rams
29 (-)	Raiders	0.7595 (LW × 0.9872)	3-8	Lost by 24 @ Bengals
30 (↑1)	Jaguars	0.7453 (LW × 1.0162)	2-9	Won by 5 vs Titans
31 (↓1)	Eagles	0.7376 (LW × 0.9705)	3-8	Lost by 8 vs Panthers
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7085 (LW × 1.0109)	1-10	Lost by 8 vs Broncos

Comments:

• The Texans need another 4th-quarter come-back and overtime to beat a lesser team. The Lions are better than the Jaguars, but still, it's really not a good trend for the supposedly-best team in the AFC.

• The Ravens are another AFC team with a record that seems a lot better than how they're playing. They only managed a win this week because the Chargers are really, really bad.

• My usual rule of thumb is that once it gets to be Thanksgiving, any team that is two or more games out of a playoff spot is done. That eliminates half the field on the AFC side.

• As long as Ben Roethlisberger can't play, the Steelers seem almost certain to drop out of contention. And even if he does come back, I wonder how effective he can be if he's not 100%.

• So, apparently the Seahawks are upset about a bad call that cost them a game. But, as they say, in the long run these things even out.

NFL Week 12 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Broncos @ Chiefs	Broncos ρ=1.5063	Broncos δ=24.0	Broncos -10½
Patriots @ Jets	Patriots ρ=1.1938	Patriots* δ=14.4	Patriots -7
Seahawks @ Dolphins	Seahawks ρ=1.1649	Seahawks* δ=11.4	Seahawks -3
Texans @ Lions	Texans ρ=1.1554	Texans* δ=10.1	Texans -3
Raiders @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.1499	Bengals δ=11.3	Bengals -8
Steelers @ Browns	Steelers ρ=1.1396	Steelers* δ=5.6	Steelers -1
Titans @ Jaguars	Titans ρ=1.1307	Titans* δ=3.6	Titans -2½
Panthers @ Eagles	Panthers ρ=1.1259	Panthers* δ=6.6	Eagles -2
Ravens @ Chargers	Ravens ρ=1.1168	Ravens* δ=5.2	Ravens -1½
49ers @ Saints	49ers ρ=1.1124	49ers* δ=12.6	49ers -1½
Packers @ Giants	Packers ρ=1.0808	Packers* δ=1.9	Giants -2½
Vikings @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0760	Bears δ=7.2	Bears -2½
Redskins @ Cowboys	Cowboys* ρ=1.0589	Cowboys δ=0.4	Cowboys -3
Falcons @ Buccaneers	Falcons ρ=1.0530	Falcons* δ=1.6	Falcons -1
Bills @ Colts	Colts* ρ=1.0088	Bills* δ=0.7	Colts -3
Rams @ Cardinals	Rams ρ=1.0071	Cardinals δ=1.4	Cardinals -1

Comments:

• A lot of really close lines this week. Even SRS is making a rogue pick (though even I would be shocked to see the Colts lose to the Bills).

• The lines for the Bears and Steelers may move around some this week, depending on how their respective quarterback situations develop.

• The Giants are 1-4 this season when the defense doesn't get at least 3 turnovers. If the Packers can hang onto the ball (and the receivers catch it when it comes their way), they could have a decent chance for an upset.

• The way the Falcons have been playing lately, I'm not sure why they aren't flat-out underdogs going to Tampa Bay to face the surging Buccaneers (5-1 in their last 6). This will be just the 2nd time this season the Falcons have faced a team that (currently) has a winning record.

NFL Week 11 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 11 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

ESPN drops the Colts back to Earth after they got dismantled by the Patriots, which just leaves:

On the bubble

The Falcons (+6) continue to rack up close wins against lesser opponents. I've been watching APR long enough to know that's not a good sign for a happy ending to the season.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-9)

The Panthers are, in some sense, a cautionary tale of what the Falcons could be, with only a few missed plays. They've both played a lot of games that were close in the 4th quarter. But unlike the Falcons, the Panthers just can't find a way to hold onto a 4th-quarter lead.

On the bubble

Patriots, Seahawks, Broncos (-6)

NFL Week 11 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (11-1)

Right:

Bengals @ Chiefs
Packers @ Lions
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Saints @ Raiders
Ravens @ Steelers
Jaguars @ Texans
Cardinals @ Falcons
Browns @ Cowboys
Eagles @ Redskins
Colts @ Patriots
Chargers @ Broncos

Wrong:

Jets @ Rams

This is actually how things were supposed to go for the Jets—a dominating defense producing turnovers, a productive running game, and an environment where Sanchez only needs to throw 20 times a game.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-2, SRS: 0-2, Line: 2-0)

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)

This was a combination of Ryan Tannehill looking very much a rookie (50% completion rate, 2 interceptions, and barely 5 yards per attempt) along with a no-show from the running game.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

Perhaps the biggest problem for the Bears in this game was bad defense—they allowed the 49ers to score 20 first-half points (mostly on long drives, too). Add in 6 sacks, 2 interceptions, and an ineffective running game, and it's a recipe for disaster.

Totals

A decent week for everybody, but a remarkable week for the Line.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	3			86	-	57	-	1	60.1%
SRS	11	-	3			86	-	57	-	1	60.1%
Line	13	-	1			95	-	48	-	1	66.3%

NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Broncos	1.0556 (LW × 0.9945)	7-3	Won by 7 vs Chargers
2 (↑3)	Patriots	1.0359 (LW × 1.0178)	7-3	Won by 35 vs Colts
3 (↑3)	49ers	1.0302 (LW × 1.0246)	7-2-1	Won by 25 vs Bears
4 (-)	Packers	1.0247 (LW × 0.9994)	7-3	Won by 4 @ Lions
5 (↓4)	Texans	1.0244 (LW × 0.9643)	9-1	Won by 6 vs Jaguars
6 (↑2)	Seahawks	0.9908 (LW × 1.0004)	6-4	Bye
7 (↓4)	Bears	0.9827 (LW × 0.9521)	7-3	Lost by 25 @ 49ers
8 (↓1)	Falcons	0.9761 (LW × 0.9718)	9-1	Won by 4 vs Cardinals
9 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9524 (LW × 1.0080)	8-2	Won by 3 @ Steelers
10 (↓1)	Giants	0.9481 (LW × 0.9992)	6-4	Bye
11 (↑2)	Buccaneers	0.9270 (LW × 1.0110)	6-4	Won by 6 @ Panthers
12 (↑3)	Saints	0.9261 (LW × 1.0284)	5-5	Won by 21 @ Raiders
13 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9188 (LW × 0.9813)	6-4	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
14 (-)	Vikings	0.9133 (LW × 1.0027)	6-4	Bye
15 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.9044 (LW × 0.9792)	5-5	Won by 3 vs Browns
16 (-)	Lions	0.8866 (LW × 0.9927)	4-6	Lost by 4 vs Packers
17 (↑2)	Bengals	0.8848 (LW × 1.0228)	5-5	Won by 22 @ Chiefs
18 (↑8)	Jets	0.8677 (LW × 1.0373)	4-6	Won by 14 @ Rams
19 (↑1)	Colts	0.8587 (LW × 0.9965)	6-4	Lost by 35 @ Patriots
20 (↓2)	Panthers	0.8557 (LW × 0.9810)	2-8	Lost by 6 vs Buccaneers
21 (↑2)	Redskins	0.8541 (LW × 1.0081)	4-6	Won by 25 vs Eagles
22 (-)	Chargers	0.8528 (LW × 0.9981)	4-6	Lost by 7 @ Broncos
23 (↑2)	Bills	0.8512 (LW × 1.0167)	4-6	Won by 5 vs Dolphins
24 (↓3)	Dolphins	0.8506 (LW × 0.9938)	4-6	Lost by 5 @ Bills
25 (↓8)	Rams	0.8336 (LW × 0.9529)	3-6-1	Lost by 14 vs Jets
26 (↓2)	Titans	0.8293 (LW × 0.9902)	4-6	Bye
27 (-)	Cardinals	0.8277 (LW × 0.9984)	4-6	Lost by 4 @ Falcons
28 (↑2)	Browns	0.8062 (LW × 1.0243)	2-8	Lost by 3 @ Cowboys
29 (↓1)	Raiders	0.7694 (LW × 0.9717)	3-7	Lost by 21 vs Saints
30 (↓1)	Eagles	0.7600 (LW × 0.9651)	3-7	Lost by 25 @ Redskins
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7335 (LW × 1.0210)	1-9	Lost by 6 @ Texans
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7008 (LW × 0.9763)	1-9	Lost by 22 vs Bengals

Comments:

• So remember how I was saying that ESPN had the Colts overrated at #11? Yeah, that's pretty much what I was talking about, right there.

• On the other hand, that prediction that the Raiders could upset the Saints? Let us never speak of it again.

• On the gripping hand, the Saints still have the 49ers, and road games at the Falcons and Giants. Barring a miraculous turn-around on their defense, it will be a major accomplishment for them to make it to 9 wins this year.

• The Falcons get to 9 wins, but they can't be real happy about Matt Ryan's 5 interceptions, or needing a 4th-quarter come-back to beat the Cardinals. They may clinch a bye in the playoffs, but it's real easy to see them having another 1-and-done playoffs, too.