NFL: Week 14 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.0877 (LW × 1.0260)	11-2	Won by 29 @ Bears
2 (↑1)	Falcons	1.0159 (LW × 1.0034)	11-2	Won by 21 @ Panthers
3 (↑1)	Ravens	1.0087 (LW × 1.0019)	9-4	Won by 6 @ Texans
4 (↑1)	Steelers	1.0078 (LW × 1.0024)	10-3	Won by 16 vs Bengals
5 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9963 (LW × 1.0055)	9-4	Won by 3 @ Cowboys
6 (↓4)	Packers	0.9916 (LW × 0.9747)	8-5	Lost by 4 @ Lions
7 (↑2)	Giants	0.9814 (LW × 1.0285)	9-4	Won by 18 @ Vikings
8 (↑2)	Saints	0.9590 (LW × 1.0217)	10-3	Won by 18 vs Rams
9 (↑3)	Jaguars	0.9319 (LW × 1.0208)	8-5	Won by 7 vs Raiders
10 (↓2)	Bears	0.9307 (LW × 0.9732)	9-4	Lost by 29 vs Patriots
11 (↓4)	Jets	0.9278 (LW × 0.9604)	9-4	Lost by 4 vs Dolphins
12 (↑1)	Chargers	0.9245 (LW × 1.0205)	7-6	Won by 31 vs Chiefs
13 (↓2)	Browns	0.9095 (LW × 0.9856)	5-8	Lost by 7 @ Bills
14 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.9071 (LW × 1.0128)	7-6	Won by 4 @ Jets
15 (↑2)	Buccaneers	0.9046 (LW × 1.0198)	8-5	Won by 1 @ Redskins
16 (↓2)	Colts	0.9006 (LW × 1.0022)	7-6	Won by 2 @ Titans
17 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.8839 (LW × 1.0089)	4-9	Lost by 3 vs Eagles
18 (-)	Raiders	0.8695 (LW × 0.9908)	6-7	Lost by 7 @ Jaguars
19 (↑3)	Texans	0.8593 (LW × 0.9994)	5-8	Lost by 6 vs Ravens
20 (↑5)	Bills	0.8542 (LW × 1.0253)	3-10	Won by 7 vs Browns
21 (↓5)	Chiefs	0.8521 (LW × 0.9541)	8-5	Lost by 31 @ Chargers
22 (↓2)	Titans	0.8521 (LW × 0.9764)	5-8	Lost by 2 vs Colts
23 (↑3)	Lions	0.8418 (LW × 1.0178)	3-10	Won by 4 vs Packers
24 (↓3)	Vikings	0.8381 (LW × 0.9620)	5-8	Lost by 18 vs Giants
25 (↑2)	49ers	0.8353 (LW × 1.0110)	5-8	Won by 19 vs Seahawks
26 (↓3)	Rams	0.8236 (LW × 0.9796)	6-7	Lost by 18 @ Saints
27 (↓3)	Redskins	0.8198 (LW × 0.9806)	5-8	Lost by 1 vs Buccaneers
28 (↑1)	Bengals	0.7748 (LW × 0.9909)	2-11	Lost by 16 @ Steelers
29 (↑1)	Seahawks	0.7564 (LW × 0.9678)	6-7	Lost by 19 @ 49ers
30 (↓2)	Broncos	0.7391 (LW × 0.9415)	3-10	Lost by 30 @ Cardinals
31 (↑1)	Cardinals	0.7120 (LW × 1.0090)	4-9	Won by 30 vs Broncos
32 (↓1)	Panthers	0.7031 (LW × 0.9908)	1-12	Lost by 21 vs Falcons

Comments:

• You might be sick of hearing about how good the Patriots are, but even APR has them head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league right now. If you go by Power Index ratios, the Patriots are farther above the Falcons (ρ=1.0707) than the Falcons are above the Saints (ρ=1.0593).

• The Packers' loss to the Lions is pretty devastating. It swings the division tie-breakers the Bears way, and drops them a game back of all the wildcard contenders, including the Buccaneers.

• Tarvaris Jackson didn't look that great last week, and facing a real defense, he looked a lot worse. The Vikings didn't have a drive longer than 31 yards until deep into garbage time. You can add the Vikings to that growing list of teams that should be looking for free agent quarterback in the offseason.

• Perhaps even more troubling for the Vikings, their once-vaunted run defense was missing in action—Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw both rushed for over 100 yards.

• Once again, every team in the NFC West has a losing record. If Matt Cassel misses another week, the Rams might have a chance to get back to .500 this week, but the Seahawks are facing the Falcons, and seem doomed to fall to 6-8.

NFL: Week 13 Strength of Schedule

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Bears	0.9761	23	0.8643
2	Bills	0.9592	1	0.9293
3	Bengals	0.9591	4	0.9233
4	Packers	0.9458	17	0.8946
5	Saints	0.9337	31	0.8345
6	Vikings	0.9299	10	0.9054
7	Giants	0.9256	26	0.8634
8	Panthers	0.9235	18	0.8907
9	Patriots	0.9231	12	0.9041
10	Jets	0.9204	11	0.9049
11	Dolphins	0.9166	2	0.9273
12	Lions	0.9160	3	0.9270
13	Redskins	0.9070	7	0.9109
14	Browns	0.9011	6	0.9171
15	Eagles	0.8937	15	0.8984
16	Texans	0.8908	9	0.9059
17	Seahawks	0.8887	30	0.8364
18	Titans	0.8874	14	0.8990
19	Colts	0.8838	19	0.8897
20	Chiefs	0.8739	29	0.8386
21	Ravens	0.8735	13	0.8990
22	Cowboys	0.8724	8	0.9066
23	Raiders	0.8708	28	0.8533
24	Jaguars	0.8677	21	0.8872
25	Rams	0.8577	32	0.8170
26	Buccaneers	0.8439	24	0.8642
27	Steelers	0.8386	5	0.9212
28	Broncos	0.8334	20	0.8878
29	Chargers	0.8203	27	0.8598
30	49ers	0.8051	25	0.8636
31	Cardinals	0.7969	22	0.8692
32	Falcons	0.7796	16	0.8956

Comments:

• This was computed using the Week 13 power rankings. As before, the "unplayed" strength is a combination of the powers of teams for unplayed games, and the "played" strength is from powers of teams for played games.

• In the Week 10 Strength of Schedule I posted, the strength of upcoming games was a lot more compressed (0.83 to 0.96).

• I've bolded all the likely playoff teams, along with those that seem like they have a chance to get in (obvioulsly not all of them will).

• The Bears' and Packers' remaining schedule is pretty tough—in both cases, 3 of their four remaining games are against teams contending for the playoffs (including each other in week 17).

• Even with a weaker schedule, the Chargers are in trouble. If they win out, they'll still need help to win the AFC West, or more help to qualify for a wildcard.

• The Colts' chances pretty much come down to beating the Jaguars week 15 (and taking care of business with the Titans). If they do that, they'll win the AFC South.

NFL: Week 14 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Falcons @ Panthers	Falcons ρ=1.4266	Falcons* δ=19.5	Falcons -7½
Bengals @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.2858	Steelers δ=12.1	Steelers -10
Packers @ Lions	Packers ρ=1.2300	Packers* δ=10.4	Packers -7
Ravens @ Texans	Ravens ρ=1.1709	Ravens* δ=6.7	Ravens -3
Eagles @ Cowboys	Eagles ρ=1.1309	Eagles* δ=8.0	Eagles -3½
Rams @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.1164	Saints δ=7.1	Saints -9½
Broncos @ Cardinals	Broncos ρ=1.1123	Broncos* δ=7.1	Broncos -3
Patriots @ Bears	Patriots ρ=1.1085	Patriots* δ=7.5	Patriots -3
Browns @ Bills	Browns ρ=1.1076	Browns* δ=4.7	Bills -1
Giants @ Vikings	Giants ρ=1.0953	Giants* δ=4.1	Giants -1½
Dolphins @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0786	Jets δ=3.6	Jets -5½
Buccaneers @ Redskins	Buccaneers ρ=1.0609	Buccaneers* δ=0.6	Buccaneers -2
Seahawks @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.0572	49ers δ=1.1	49ers -4½
Raiders @ Jaguars	Jaguars* ρ=1.0403	Raiders* δ=2.3	Jaguars -5
Colts @ Titans	Colts ρ=1.0297	Titans δ=0.1	Colts -3
Chiefs @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.0144	Chargers δ=2.8	Chargers -7

Comments:

• More agreement this week, only 3 split picks.

• Looks like 6th-round rookie John Skelton will be starting for the Cardinals this week (backed up by FA acquisition and erstwhile UFL backup Richard Bartel). So it looks like Eric Studesville will have an excellent chance to continue this season's trend of interim coaches winning out of the gate.

• Packers -7 seems like a lot of points to cover. Yeah, the Lions are 2-10, but they've only lost by more than 4 at home once this year. (The Packers have won by at least 7 points in their last 4 visits to Detroit, though...)

• Can the Dolphins extend their road record to 6-1? On the one hand, they won't have WR Brian Hartline (out with finger surgery). On the other hand, when the Dolphins have won, it's been mostly running the ball anyway.

• Browns @ Bills matches up two teams that have lost a lot of close games. Last year, Derek Anderson and the Browns managed to win this matchup in spite of only completing 2 passes for 17 yards. It probably won't be that awful this year. (Why the Cardinals thought Anderson was a worthwhile FA aquisition is far beyond my capacity.)

NFL: Week 13 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Seahawks (+10)

I'm not sure it's worth much to argue ranking the Seahawks #20 or #30 (though I think the Browns, Vikings, and Cowboys are all easily better teams). But I will point out the game vs. the Panthers would've been a lot closer without a pick-6 and a long punt return going the Seahawks' way.

In range:

Rams (+6). Last week I said maybe the Rams were ranked too low. But a good team would've come away with touchdowns where the Rams had to settle for field goals.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Browns (-10)

Unlike the Lions, the Browns keep winning just enough for APR to continue to rank them high. Certainly, they're not a team to overlook. And I think it's safe to say they're doing better than last year (they didn't get their second win in 2009 until week 14).

NFL: Week 13 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-4)

Right

Saints @ Bengals
Bears @ Lions
Rams @ Cardinals
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Texans @ Eagles
49ers @ Packers
Broncos @ Chiefs
Redskins @ Giants
Panthers @ Seahawks
Jets @ Patriots

Wrong

Jaguars @ Titans

The Titans face another easy-to-score-on defense, and can only put up 6 points (which, to be sure, is 6 more than last week). And for all the Titans' troubles at quarterback, it should be noted that Chris Johnson is struggling too—53 yards rushing is shockingly low for a guy who put up 2000 yards last year.

Browns @ Dolphins

Chad Henne had another bad game, and this time, the running game wasn't enough to bail him out. (But how on Earth are the Dolphins 1-5 at home, and yet 5-1 on the road? Sheesh.)

Raiders @ Chargers

When the Raiders running game works, it is brutal. In this game, six different players ran for a combined 251 yards. They converted 8/15 third-downs, and 2/2 fourth downs. And now the Chargers are finding out it's really not OK to start a season 2-5.

Cowboys @ Colts

Peyton Manning threw 4 more interceptions, including two that went for touchdowns. And whether it was Manning's fault or his receivers, that kind of performance makes it really hard to win games.

Split (APR: 0-2 SRS: 2-0 Line: 1-1)

Bills (APR) @ Vikings (SRS, Line)

The Vikings' defense had easily their best game of the year, generating 5 fumbles (4 recovered), an interception, a sack, and 6 punts. All those extra chances at the ball, along with a solid running game, helped the Vikings produce their 5th win of the season.

Steelers (SRS) @ Ravens (APR, Line)

A tough defensive game on both sides of the ball. And Troy Polamalu made the play of the game stripping Joe Flacco of the ball, and setting up the Steelers' offense for a chance at the game-winning score.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	10- 6	96-80-0	54.5%
APR VH	10- 6	92-84-0	52.3%
SRS	12- 4	101-75-0	57.4%
SRS VH	7- 9	93-82-1	53.1%
Line	11- 5	112-64-0	63.6%

NFL: Week 13 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.0601 (LW × 1.0178)	10-2	Won by 42 vs Jets
2 (↑2)	Packers	1.0173 (LW × 1.0133)	8-4	Won by 18 vs 49ers
3 (-)	Falcons	1.0124 (LW × 1.0061)	10-2	Won by 4 @ Buccaneers
4 (↓2)	Ravens	1.0068 (LW × 0.9776)	8-4	Lost by 3 vs Steelers
5 (↑1)	Steelers	1.0054 (LW × 1.0134)	9-3	Won by 3 @ Ravens
6 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9908 (LW × 1.0012)	8-4	Won by 10 vs Texans
7 (↓2)	Jets	0.9661 (LW × 0.9629)	9-3	Lost by 42 @ Patriots
8 (-)	Bears	0.9563 (LW × 1.0063)	9-3	Won by 4 @ Lions
9 (↑3)	Giants	0.9542 (LW × 1.0350)	8-4	Won by 24 vs Redskins
10 (↑1)	Saints	0.9386 (LW × 1.0113)	9-3	Won by 4 @ Bengals
11 (↑5)	Browns	0.9227 (LW × 1.0238)	5-7	Won by 3 @ Dolphins
12 (↑6)	Jaguars	0.9129 (LW × 1.0356)	7-5	Won by 11 @ Titans
13 (↓4)	Chargers	0.9060 (LW × 0.9548)	6-6	Lost by 15 vs Raiders
14 (↓4)	Colts	0.8986 (LW × 0.9633)	6-6	Lost by 3 vs Cowboys
15 (↓2)	Dolphins	0.8957 (LW × 0.9862)	6-6	Lost by 3 vs Browns
16 (↓1)	Chiefs	0.8931 (LW × 0.9861)	8-4	Won by 4 vs Broncos
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8870 (LW × 0.9981)	7-5	Lost by 4 vs Falcons
18 (↑7)	Raiders	0.8776 (LW × 1.0489)	6-6	Won by 15 @ Chargers
19 (↑4)	Cowboys	0.8761 (LW × 1.0396)	4-8	Won by 3 @ Colts
20 (↓6)	Titans	0.8727 (LW × 0.9626)	5-7	Lost by 11 vs Jaguars
21 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8712 (LW × 1.0238)	5-7	Won by 24 vs Bills
22 (↓3)	Texans	0.8598 (LW × 0.9922)	5-7	Lost by 10 @ Eagles
23 (↑1)	Rams	0.8407 (LW × 1.0033)	6-6	Won by 13 @ Cardinals
24 (↓4)	Redskins	0.8360 (LW × 0.9765)	5-7	Lost by 24 @ Giants
25 (↓4)	Bills	0.8331 (LW × 0.9762)	2-10	Lost by 24 @ Vikings
26 (↑1)	Lions	0.8271 (LW × 0.9982)	2-10	Lost by 4 vs Bears
27 (↓1)	49ers	0.8262 (LW × 0.9968)	4-8	Lost by 18 @ Packers
28 (↑1)	Broncos	0.7849 (LW × 0.9958)	3-9	Lost by 4 @ Chiefs
29 (↓1)	Bengals	0.7819 (LW × 0.9807)	2-10	Lost by 4 vs Saints
30 (-)	Seahawks	0.7815 (LW × 1.0149)	6-6	Won by 17 vs Panthers
31 (-)	Panthers	0.7097 (LW × 0.9798)	1-11	Lost by 17 @ Seahawks
32 (-)	Cardinals	0.7057 (LW × 0.9775)	3-9	Lost by 13 vs Rams

Comments:

• The Jets sure looked awful on MNF this week. Looking back on their record so far, apart from their week 2 victory over the Patriots, they really don't have any impressive wins this year.

• The Packers continue to climb up the rankings, aided in part by their victories over the Cowboys and Vikings looking better as those teams start to pick up some late-season wins.

• Congradulations to the Saints, who have 9 wins on the season, and have therefore clinched back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since '91-'92.

• The Titans tumble down to #20, which is probably still too high. But still a remarkable fall for a team that APR had ranked #3 after week 7.

• Thanks to the Rams and Seahawks winning this week, the NFC West champion will have at least 7 wins (barring a tie when they play again week 17).

NFL: Week 13 Game Picks

All Line values are from yahoo.com, except Jaguars @ Titans, which is from footballlocks.com.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
49ers @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.2113	Packers δ=17.5	Packers -10
Saints @ Bengals	Saints ρ=1.1641	Saints* δ=5.3	Saints -7
Rams @ Cardinals	Rams ρ=1.1607	Rams* δ=7.7	Rams -3
Broncos @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.1490	Chiefs δ=8.2	Chiefs -9
Bears @ Lions	Bears ρ=1.1469	Bears* δ=3.6	Bears -3
Texans @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.1421	Eagles δ=6.7	Eagles -8½
Raiders @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.1342	Chargers δ=7.6	Chargers -13
Falcons @ Buccaneers	Falcons ρ=1.1324	Falcons* δ=9.5	Falcons -3
Cowboys @ Colts	Colts* ρ=1.1069	Colts δ=6.1	Colts -5½
Redskins @ Giants	Giants* ρ=1.0769	Giants δ=4.2	Giants -7
Panthers @ Seahawks	Seahawks* ρ=1.0631	Seahawks δ=4.0	Seahawks -6
Jets @ Patriots	Patriots* ρ=1.0382	Patriots δ=0.4	Patriots -3½
Steelers @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0379	Steelers* δ=2.2	Ravens -3
Jaguars @ Titans	Titans* ρ=1.0285	Titans δ=8.1	Titans -2
Browns @ Dolphins	Dolphins* ρ=1.0077	Dolphins δ=1.4	Dolphins -4½
Bills @ Vikings	Bills ρ=1.0030	Vikings δ=0.1	Vikings -6½

Comments:

• No word as I write this if Kerry Collins will be able to start Sunday for the Titans. I guess footballlocks thinks he will, as that's pretty much the only chance they have to get a win.

• Lots of agreement again this week—only two split picks.

• The Packers haven't lost to the 49ers in the regular season since 1990. Troy Smith will have to do a very good job at quarterback for that streak to end this year.

• The Seahawks and Rams both have a good chance to win this week. After Sunday there should be at least one team in the NFC West that doesn't have a losing record.

• APR and SRS both have Bills @ Vikings a very close game. The Vikings have been beating bad teams that can't get out of their own way. Getting a win in the Metrodome can be a tall order, but if the Bills are really improving, they'll have a chance.