NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑5)	Bears	1.1099 (LW × 1.0587)	4-1	Won by 38 @ Jaguars
2 (↓1)	Texans	1.0891 (LW × 0.9608)	5-0	Won by 6 @ Jets
3 (↑2)	49ers	1.0632 (LW × 1.0126)	4-1	Won by 42 vs Bills
4 (↑3)	Falcons	1.0509 (LW × 1.0229)	5-0	Won by 7 @ Redskins
5 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0231 (LW × 0.9703)	3-2	Won by 10 vs Broncos
6 (↓4)	Cardinals	1.0119 (LW × 0.9040)	4-1	Lost by 14 @ Rams
7 (↑1)	Seahawks	1.0016 (LW × 0.9996)	3-2	Won by 4 @ Panthers
8 (↑3)	Vikings	0.9978 (LW × 1.0089)	4-1	Won by 23 vs Titans
9 (↑8)	Rams	0.9774 (LW × 1.1053)	3-2	Won by 14 vs Cardinals
10 (↓1)	Broncos	0.9656 (LW × 0.9691)	2-3	Lost by 10 @ Patriots
11 (↓8)	Ravens	0.9540 (LW × 0.9027)	4-1	Won by 3 @ Chiefs
12 (↑1)	Packers	0.9303 (LW × 1.0206)	2-3	Lost by 3 @ Colts
13 (↓3)	Bengals	0.9065 (LW × 0.9140)	3-2	Lost by 4 vs Dolphins
14 (↑2)	Giants	0.9063 (LW × 1.0185)	3-2	Won by 14 vs Browns
15 (-)	Dolphins	0.9042 (LW × 1.0066)	2-3	Won by 4 @ Bengals
16 (↑2)	Steelers	0.8918 (LW × 1.0140)	2-2	Won by 2 vs Eagles
17 (↓5)	Eagles	0.8868 (LW × 0.9268)	3-2	Lost by 2 @ Steelers
18 (↑4)	Colts	0.8797 (LW × 1.0527)	2-2	Won by 3 vs Packers
19 (-)	Redskins	0.8646 (LW × 1.0135)	2-3	Lost by 7 vs Falcons
20 (-)	Cowboys	0.8636 (LW × 1.0254)	2-2	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8600 (LW × 1.0276)	2-3	Lost by 6 vs Texans
22 (↑1)	Lions	0.8503 (LW × 1.0231)	1-3	Bye
23 (↓9)	Chargers	0.8461 (LW × 0.9410)	3-2	Lost by 7 @ Saints
24 (↑4)	Panthers	0.8132 (LW × 1.0543)	1-4	Lost by 4 vs Seahawks
25 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.8077 (LW × 1.0269)	1-3	Bye
26 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.7905 (LW × 0.9570)	1-4	Lost by 38 vs Bears
27 (↓2)	Bills	0.7851 (LW × 0.9883)	2-3	Lost by 42 @ 49ers
28 (↑3)	Saints	0.7630 (LW × 1.1087)	1-4	Won by 7 vs Chargers
29 (-)	Titans	0.7492 (LW × 0.9734)	1-4	Lost by 23 @ Vikings
30 (-)	Raiders	0.7413 (LW × 0.9855)	1-3	Bye
31 (↓4)	Browns	0.7230 (LW × 0.9214)	0-5	Lost by 14 @ Giants
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7032 (LW × 1.0541)	1-4	Lost by 3 vs Ravens

Comments:

• The Bears are probably benefiting more than they should from their blow-out win over the hapless Jaguars. Still, 4 wins is more than a lot of the rest of the league can lay claim to.

• Every team the Packers have played this season won this weekend, so they rise in power and rank, in spite of a very ugly loss to the lowly Colts.

• What is the deal with the Ravens and road games at bad teams? 3 points over a pretty awful Chiefs squad is not impressive. At least they didn't lose.

• The Saints are still on pace to break the 1981 Colts' record of 6793 yards allowed on defense. They need to average at least 425 yards per game, and have only been below that level once so far.

• The Titans and Bills are on pace to break the 1981 Colts' record of 533 points allowed (and the Saints are close). An average of 34 points per game will break the record. The Titans held their opponent under 34 points for the first time on Sunday.

NFL Q1 Strength of Schedule

This table is APR's first quarter strength of schedule results. Each team's "unplayed" strength of schedule was computed by combining the power index value of every team remaining on the schedule (using the week 4 power index values of each team). Similarly, the "played" strength of schedule was computed using the power index of teams already played.

A higher value indicates tougher opponents, and therefore a harder schedule. Teams are ranked from hardest schedule (#1) to easiest (#32).

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Lions	0.9797	17	0.9138
2	Rams	0.9658	13	0.9270
3	Bills	0.9422	29	0.8227
4	49ers	0.9418	19	0.8934
5	Seahawks	0.9404	10	0.9344
6	Cardinals	0.9378	2	0.9833
7	Vikings	0.9330	20	0.8816
8	Jets	0.9285	16	0.9194
9	Bears	0.9268	23	0.8670
10	Patriots	0.9225	15	0.9195
11	Packers	0.9214	11	0.9317
12	Titans	0.9048	5	0.9575
13	Redskins	0.9040	27	0.8267
14	Giants	0.9021	25	0.8333
15	Dolphins	0.9012	3	0.9784
16	Saints	0.8935	32	0.7879
17	Texans	0.8930	21	0.8802
18	Jaguars	0.8872	1	0.9851
19	Cowboys	0.8860	14	0.9241
20	Chiefs	0.8854	28	0.8232
21	Ravens	0.8832	9	0.9400
22	Browns	0.8817	8	0.9436
23	Bengals	0.8808	22	0.8735
24	Steelers	0.8723	18	0.8999
25	Colts	0.8682	7	0.9503
26	Panthers	0.8673	26	0.8319
27	Chargers	0.8543	31	0.8017
28	Buccaneers	0.8498	24	0.8345
29	Eagles	0.8497	6	0.9539
30	Raiders	0.8275	12	0.9282
31	Falcons	0.8270	30	0.8107
32	Broncos	0.8162	4	0.9705

Comments:

• More bad news for the Lions. Their schedule doesn't look that bad. I think it's just more there really aren't many easy opponents on it (and given the way the Lions lost to the Titans and Vikings, I'm not sure what would qualify as an easy opponent for them).

• It won't be getting easier for the Jets, either. They still have 3 more games against the NFC West, none of which look like push-overs anymore.

• The Bills have the biggest swing from easiest to hardest. Which is not good news for a team that's only beaten the Chiefs and Browns so far.

• Are the Eagles the best team in the NFC East? They're the only team (so far) to have a win outside the division and bad NFC South teams. If they can stop the turnovers, they could have an easy path to winning the NFC East.

• The Falcons are benefitting from a (so far) pretty weak division. APR has the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Saints all in the bottom 5 teams, and the Falcons sill have 5 divisional games left to play.

• The Broncos have the biggest swing from hardest to easiest. They have yet to play the Saints, Panthers, Chiefs (twice), Buccaneers, and Browns. So, yeah. Peyton Manning should have a chance to make another playoff run this year.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Ravens @ Chiefs	Ravens ρ=1.6204	Ravens* δ=26.1	Ravens -4½
Texans @ Jets	Texans ρ=1.3446	Texans* δ=23.0	Texans -9
Bills @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.3297	49ers δ=17.0	49ers -9½
Seahawks @ Panthers	Seahawks ρ=1.3102	Seahawks* δ=15.0	Panthers -2½
Titans @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.3059	Vikings δ=15.1	Vikings -5½
Cardinals @ Rams	Cardinals ρ=1.2782	Cardinals* δ=14.1	Cardinals -1½
Bears @ Jaguars	Bears ρ=1.2639	Bears* δ=14.4	Bears -5½
Chargers @ Saints	Chargers ρ=1.2339	Chargers* δ=8.7	Saints -3½
Falcons @ Redskins	Falcons ρ=1.1895	Falcons* δ=13.4	Falcons -2½
Browns @ Giants	Giants* ρ=1.1319	Giants δ=8.6	Giants -10
Packers @ Colts	Packers ρ=1.0884	Packers* δ=9.4	Packers -7
Dolphins @ Bengals	Bengals* ρ=1.0680	Dolphins* δ=3.7	Bengals -4
Eagles @ Steelers	Eagles* ρ=1.0367	Eagles* δ=1.6	Steelers -3
Broncos @ Patriots	Patriots* ρ=1.0195	Broncos* δ=0.1	Patriots -7

Bye: Buccaneers, Lions, Cowboys, Raiders

Comments:

• Ravens -4½ sure doesn't seem like much of a line. Except for their OT win at the Saints, the Chiefs have been losing by at least 16 points.

• The Jets need to come out fighting if they want to save their season. But the Texans are so much better right now, I'm not sure how much difference they can make.

• Why is the Line taking the Saints? Sure, they looked at least a little better last Sunday, but their defense is still awful.

• The Jets are the only team the Steelers have held under 30 points so far. I think the Eagles will be able to keep that streak going.

• SRS makes an interesting rogue pick of the Dolphins over the Bengals. The Dolphins did take the Jets and Cardinals to overtime; they could easily be 3-1 right now...

NFL Week 4 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 4 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble

The Giants (+6) don't have a win outside a couple weak NFC South teams. On the other hand, they started out struggling last year, too. So... repeat?

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-11)

The Dolphins did take the 4-0 Cardinals to overtime this week. And their overtime loss to the Jets looked a lot better before the Jets got pummeled by the 49ers last Sunday.

Colts (-9)

The Colts are certainly better than the #31 spot ESPN has them in. The Chiefs, Titans, and yeah, the Saints should all be below the Colts.

Seahawks (-9)

Russell Wilson still hasn't passed for more than 160 yards in a game (140 if you subtract out sack yardage). Their close loss to the Cardinals in week 1 is probably holding them up, but APR has them way overrated at #9

On the bubble

The Jaguars' (-6) Blane Gabbert is playing noticably better than last year (a low bar to clear, to be sure).

NFL Week 4 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-2)

Right:

Patriots @ Bills
Chargers @ Chiefs
Browns @ Ravens
Titans @ Texans
Panthers @ Falcons
Saints @ Packers
Dolphins @ Cardinals
Raiders @ Broncos

Wrong:

Seahawks @ Rams

The Rams' offense still isn't very good, but they're good enough to get a win when their defense gets 3 interceptions and holds their opponent to 13 points. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have only scored more than 16 points in one game, and Pete Carroll sounds like he is wishing he had made a different choice for his starting quarterback.

Redskins @ Buccaneers

The Buccaneers' defense really broke down in this game, allowing the Redskins to sprint out to a 21-3 lead. Then, when the Bucs managed to claw their way back to a 1-point lead, their defense couldn't get one more stop to secure the win.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-2, SRS: 2-3, Line: 3-2)

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)

The Lions gave up two more touchdowns on special teams. Their offense only managed 55 yards rushing. Matt Stafford threw incomplete 21 times, and was sacked 5 times. The Lions are just not a good team right now.

Giants (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)

The Giants' defense only forced 2 sacks, gave up nearly 200 rushing yards, and didn't get a turnover from an Eagles' squad that lost 15 turnovers in its first 3 games. That's a problem for games like this one, where the Giants' offense only puts up 17 points.

Bengals (Line) @ Jaguars (APR, SRS)

I'm willing to stipulate that APR had the Bengals under-rated at #21 in the week 3 power rankings. And the Jaguars aren't a very good team, especially when Maurice Jones-Drew only has 38 yards rushing.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

So remember how I said the Bears' defense thrives on turnovers in the game picks? Yeah, that.

49ers (Line) @ Jets (APR, SRS)

The Jets' day on offense: 2 lost fumbles, an interception, and 8 punts. Their longest drive was just 30 yards. They never attempted a 4th-down conversion. The Jets could be looking at a long, ugly season this year.

Totals

A much better week all around.

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	11	-	4	25	-	22	53.2%
SRS	10	-	5	24	-	23	51.2%
Line	11	-	4	28	-	19	59.6%

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

Update: I just discovered another error in my recorded scores, for the Chargers @ Raiders game in week 1. I'm not going to correct the previous power rankings (or picks), but the corrected power rankings for week 4 appears below.

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Texans	1.1335 (LW × 0.8902)	4-0	Won by 24 vs Titans
2 (-)	Cardinals	1.1194 (LW × 0.9079)	4-0	Won by 3 vs Dolphins
3 (↑3)	Ravens	1.0568 (LW × 1.0108)	3-1	Won by 7 vs Browns
4 (↑3)	Patriots	1.0544 (LW × 1.0100)	2-2	Won by 24 @ Bills
5 (↑3)	49ers	1.0500 (LW × 1.0543)	3-1	Won by 34 @ Jets
6 (↑7)	Bears	1.0484 (LW × 1.0853)	3-1	Won by 16 @ Cowboys
7 (↓3)	Falcons	1.0275 (LW × 0.8798)	4-0	Won by 2 vs Panthers
8 (↓5)	Seahawks	1.0021 (LW × 0.8552)	2-2	Lost by 6 @ Rams
9 (↓4)	Broncos	0.9963 (LW × 0.9029)	2-2	Won by 31 vs Raiders
10 (↑11)	Bengals	0.9918 (LW × 1.1462)	3-1	Won by 17 @ Jaguars
11 (↓1)	Vikings	0.9890 (LW × 1.0142)	3-1	Won by 7 @ Lions
12 (↓1)	Eagles	0.9568 (LW × 0.9820)	3-1	Won by 2 vs Giants
13 (↓4)	Packers	0.9115 (LW × 0.9211)	2-2	Won by 1 vs Saints
14 (↑4)	Chargers	0.8991 (LW × 0.9894)	3-1	Won by 17 @ Chiefs
15 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.8983 (LW × 0.9690)	1-3	Lost by 3 @ Cardinals
16 (↑3)	Giants	0.8899 (LW × 0.9927)	2-2	Lost by 2 @ Eagles
17 (↑9)	Rams	0.8843 (LW × 1.1818)	2-2	Won by 6 vs Seahawks
18 (↓6)	Steelers	0.8794 (LW × 0.9101)	1-2	Bye
19 (↑10)	Redskins	0.8531 (LW × 1.1994)	2-2	Won by 2 @ Buccaneers
20 (↓6)	Cowboys	0.8423 (LW × 0.8766)	2-2	Lost by 16 vs Bears
21 (↓6)	Jets	0.8369 (LW × 0.8800)	2-2	Lost by 34 vs 49ers
22 (-)	Colts	0.8357 (LW × 1.0007)	1-2	Bye
23 (↑2)	Lions	0.8311 (LW × 1.0593)	1-3	Lost by 7 vs Vikings
24 (↓7)	Jaguars	0.8261 (LW × 0.9032)	1-3	Lost by 17 vs Bengals
25 (↓5)	Bills	0.7944 (LW × 0.9165)	2-2	Lost by 24 vs Patriots
26 (↓3)	Buccaneers	0.7865 (LW × 0.9675)	1-3	Lost by 2 vs Redskins
27 (-)	Browns	0.7847 (LW × 1.0729)	0-4	Lost by 7 @ Ravens
28 (↑3)	Panthers	0.7713 (LW × 1.1261)	1-3	Lost by 2 @ Falcons
29 (↓1)	Titans	0.7697 (LW × 1.0564)	1-3	Lost by 24 @ Texans
30 (↓6)	Raiders	0.7522 (LW × 0.9574)	1-3	Lost by 31 @ Broncos
31 (↑1)	Saints	0.6882 (LW × 1.1764)	0-4	Lost by 1 @ Packers
32 (↓2)	Chiefs	0.6671 (LW × 0.9562)	1-3	Lost by 17 vs Chargers

Comments:

• The Falcons are going to have to do better than a 2-point come-back win over a (so far) pretty bad Panthers team to get into the top 10, even if they are undefeated. But it's going to be the last weekend in October before they play a team currently ranked higher than #19.

• #11 seems pretty high for the Vikings. 49ers are the only team they've played with more than one win. Still, they've already matched last years' win total, so it's safe to say they're a better team this year.

• A bad challenge, bad coaching, and some really bad non-calls by the officials made it another long day for the Packers. At least they managed to escape with a win this time.

• The good news for the Lions is they have a bye next week. The bad news is, they've already lost 2 games they should've won easily, their special teams unit is a disaster, and they've got a 5 game stretch after the bye with only one home game.

• The 1981 Baltimore Colts hold the record for the most yards allowed by a defense at 6,973. Through 4 games, the Saints' defense is on pace to allow 7,412 yards.

• The 1981 Baltimore Colts also hold the record for most points allowed, at 533. The Titans and Chiefs are both on pace to allow more, and the Bills and Saints are close.

NFL Week 4 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Titans @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.8668	Texans δ=39.6	Texans -12½
Saints @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.6927	Packers δ=29.4	Packers -7½
Panthers @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.6694	Falcons δ=33.1	Falcons -7½
Seahawks @ Rams	Seahawks ρ=1.5696	Seahawks* δ=28.6	Seahawks -1
Browns @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.4176	Ravens δ=20.7	Ravens -13
Vikings @ Lions	Vikings ρ=1.2684	Vikings* δ=14.5	Lions -4½
Raiders @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.2600	Broncos δ=15.5	Broncos -6½
Dolphins @ Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.2464	Cardinals δ=7.7	Cardinals -6½
Chargers @ Chiefs	Chargers ρ=1.2048	Chargers* δ=13.7	Chargers -1
Patriots @ Bills	Patriots ρ=1.1701	Patriots* δ=12.8	Patriots -4
Redskins @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.1474	Buccaneers δ=9.9	Buccaneers -2½
Giants @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.0821	Giants* δ=4.4	Eagles -1
Bengals @ Jaguars	Jaguars ρ=1.0706	Jaguars δ=12.5	Bengals -2
Bears @ Cowboys	Bears* ρ=1.0036	Bears* δ=2.9	Cowboys -4
49ers @ Jets	Jets ρ=1.0034	Jets δ=4.7	49ers -4½

Bye: Steelers, Colts

Comments:

• Do the Texans have the AFC South won already? If the first three games are any indication, it may take the Jaguars, Colts and Titans combined to match the Texans' win total.

• The Falcons are another team that seem to be well on their way to clinching their division. They've already got a 2-game lead in their division, and it might be November before they play another team with a winning record.

• Given what happened Monday night, and given how bad the Saints defense has been, this has to be the week the Packers' offense finally has a good game, if it's ever going to happen this season.

• Can the Vikings beat the Lions this week? If the Lions allows 44 points again, they can.

• I think I like the APR/SRS pick of the Bears over the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys have turned the ball over 6 times so far, and that's the kind of thing the Bears thrive on.

• SRS makes an intriguing rogue pick of the Giants over the Eagles. I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Eagles too, especially given how convincingly the Eagles got beat down by the Cardinals last Sunday.

• I'd be a lot more inclined to consider the Jets over the 49ers if Darrelle Revis wasn't done for the season. Still, it's not like the Vikings have a shut-down corner anything like Revis, and they got the job done...