NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.1139 (LW × 1.0250)	10-3	Won by 28 vs Texans
2 (-)	Broncos	1.0611 (LW × 0.9950)	10-3	Won by 13 @ Raiders
3 (↑1)	49ers	1.0253 (LW × 1.0095)	9-3-1	Won by 14 vs Dolphins
4 (↑3)	Giants	1.0022 (LW × 1.0249)	8-5	Won by 25 vs Saints
5 (↑1)	Seahawks	0.9873 (LW × 1.0074)	8-5	Won by 58 vs Cardinals
6 (↓3)	Texans	0.9862 (LW × 0.9647)	11-2	Lost by 28 @ Patriots
7 (↓2)	Packers	0.9860 (LW × 0.9968)	9-4	Won by 7 vs Lions
8 (↑2)	Ravens	0.9421 (LW × 0.9873)	9-4	Lost by 3 @ Redskins
9 (↓1)	Falcons	0.9388 (LW × 0.9643)	11-2	Lost by 10 @ Panthers
10 (↓1)	Bears	0.9262 (LW × 0.9652)	8-5	Lost by 7 @ Vikings
11 (↑1)	Bengals	0.9212 (LW × 0.9808)	7-6	Lost by 1 vs Cowboys
12 (↑4)	Redskins	0.9173 (LW × 1.0235)	7-6	Won by 3 vs Ravens
13 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9132 (LW × 0.9659)	7-6	Lost by 10 vs Chargers
14 (↑1)	Colts	0.9080 (LW × 1.0021)	9-4	Won by 4 vs Titans
15 (↑4)	Cowboys	0.8999 (LW × 1.0354)	7-6	Won by 1 @ Bengals
16 (↓2)	Saints	0.8982 (LW × 0.9780)	5-8	Lost by 25 @ Giants
17 (↓4)	Buccaneers	0.8954 (LW × 0.9691)	6-7	Lost by 2 vs Eagles
18 (-)	Rams	0.8846 (LW × 1.0142)	6-6-1	Won by 3 @ Bills
19 (↑5)	Browns	0.8731 (LW × 1.0177)	5-8	Won by 23 vs Chiefs
20 (↑5)	Panthers	0.8719 (LW × 1.0297)	4-9	Won by 10 vs Falcons
21 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8714 (LW × 1.0077)	7-6	Won by 7 vs Bears
22 (↑1)	Jets	0.8675 (LW × 1.0085)	6-7	Won by 7 @ Jaguars
23 (↓6)	Dolphins	0.8619 (LW × 0.9869)	5-8	Lost by 14 @ 49ers
24 (↑2)	Chargers	0.8604 (LW × 1.0256)	5-8	Won by 10 @ Steelers
25 (↓3)	Lions	0.8587 (LW × 0.9964)	4-9	Lost by 7 @ Packers
26 (↓5)	Bills	0.8487 (LW × 0.9836)	5-8	Lost by 3 vs Rams
27 (-)	Titans	0.8082 (LW × 0.9948)	4-9	Lost by 4 @ Colts
28 (↑2)	Eagles	0.7635 (LW × 1.0344)	4-9	Won by 2 @ Buccaneers
29 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.7571 (LW × 0.9785)	4-9	Lost by 58 @ Seahawks
30 (↓1)	Raiders	0.7485 (LW × 0.9849)	3-10	Lost by 13 vs Broncos
31 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.7208 (LW × 0.9839)	2-11	Lost by 23 @ Browns
32 (↓1)	Jaguars	0.7167 (LW × 0.9766)	2-11	Lost by 7 vs Jets

Comments:

• The Ravens lose power on their loss to the Redskins, but the Falcons' and Bears' losses cost them more, pushing the Ravens up in the rankings.

• Adrian Peterson is your come-back player of the year. After a devistating knee injury less than a year ago, he's on pace to rush for the most yards in his career, and also has a career-best yards per carry. If the Vikings manage to sneak into the playoffs (unlikely but not impossible), he should be MVP as well. Just a remarkable recovery, and an extraordinary player.

• That was the Cardinals franchise-worst loss, beating out an 0-49 loss to the Chiefs in 2002. Hard to believe that team was ever 4-0.

• That was a pretty ugly loss by the Steelers, and no blaming Charlie Batch this time. After this (and the Steelers' loss to the Browns two weeks ago), I think the Bengals have to be the favorite to clinch the last wildcard spot.

• The Steelers and Bengals both losing gives the Jets a faint glimmer of hope to get into the playoffs. But the Jets tie-breaker situation is not good, including a head-to-head loss to the Steelers, so the glimmer is faint indeed.

• The Bears are now 1-4 in their last 5 games. Their last win over a team that (currently) has a winning record was their week4 win over the Cowboys.

NFL Week 14 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Broncos @ Raiders	Broncos ρ=1.4033	Broncos* δ=21.4	Broncos -10½
Cardinals @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.2667	Seahawks δ=7.8	Seahawks -10½
Eagles @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.2517	Buccaneers δ=11.3	Buccaneers -7½
Jets @ Jaguars	Jets ρ=1.1720	Jets* δ=8.9	Jets -2½
Chiefs @ Browns	Browns ρ=1.1710	Browns δ=7.0	Browns -6½
Dolphins @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.1630	49ers δ=13.8	49ers -10
Falcons @ Panthers	Falcons ρ=1.1498	Falcons* δ=8.1	Falcons -3½
Lions @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1477	Packers δ=5.7	Packers -6½
Chargers @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.1270	Steelers δ=1.5	Steelers -7
Titans @ Colts	Colts ρ=1.1152	Colts δ=3.0	Colts -5½
Bears @ Vikings	Bears ρ=1.1096	Bears* δ=8.5	Bears -3
Cowboys @ Bengals	Bengals* ρ=1.0807	Bengals δ=0.9	Bengals -6½
Saints @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.0647	Giants δ=7.5	Giants -5
Ravens @ Redskins	Ravens ρ=1.0646	Ravens* δ=1.5	Redskins -2½
Texans @ Patriots	Patriots* ρ=1.0630	Patriots δ=4.1	Patriots -3½
Rams @ Bills	Rams ρ=1.0110	Rams* δ=5.1	Bills -3

Comments:

• Almost all unanimous picks again this week.

• Wow, the Line is picking the Redskins over the Ravens? I'm not saying it's wrong, but it is surprising.

• It sure seems like the Bills are a team the Rams should be able to beat. But the Rams are 1-3-1 on the road, and 0-3 against the other AFC East teams.

• I mentioned in the week 13 pick results that the Lions have been in nearly every game they've played this season. so a 6½ point line isn't unreasonable. But I have a feeling that in prime time, at Lambeau, facing their 9th loss of the season this could be the game where the wheels really come off for them.

• On the other hand, with reports that James Starks is hurt, and possibly out for the rest of the season, the Packers weak running game just got worse. Ryan Grant has been re-signed in response, and it sounds like he'll get at least a few carries on Sunday, but it's hard to imagine that he'll be much of a difference-maker at least in his first game back.

NFL Week 13 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 13 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble

ESPN and APR both hold the Falcons (+6) steady on their first 2-score win since late October.

ESPN and APR both move the Colts (+6) up one spot on their last-second win over the free-falling Lions.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble

APR gives the Seahawks (+6) a 3-spot bump for their road win over the Bears. They might not be worth a #6 spot, but they'll be a dangerous team if they can win more often away from Seattle.

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-5)

Right:

Texans @ Titans
Patriots @ Dolphins
Bengals @ Chargers
Saints @ Falcons
Jaguars @ Bills
Vikings @ Packers
Buccaneers @ Broncos
Eagles @ Cowboys

Wrong:

Seahawks @ Bears

Injuries are piling up on the Bears' defense, and it certainly showed on Sunday. The Seahawks have been notoriously bad on the road this year, but the Bears gave up more yards to the Seahawks than any other game this season. This was also the most yards gained by the Seahawks' offense, home or away.

Steelers @ Ravens

The Ravens really need to hold their opponents under 21 points or so. All 3 of their losses have come when their opponents scored 23+ points (they had a similar stat last year as well). But Charlie Batch had a pretty decent game against them, and the Steelers were able to take advantage of a critical late turnover to tie the game, and then use the final 6:14 of game time to drive for the game-winning field goal.

Giants @ Redskins

I've written before about the Giants' vulnerability to good running teams, and the Redskins did a good job of exploiting it. In racking up over 200 yards of rushing, the kept Manning, Bradshaw, and Cruz off the field and away from opportunities to score points. The result was, even though they only punted 3 times, the Giants (thanks in part to a missed field goal) only managed to score 16 points, which wasn't enough to beat the Redskins.

Panthers @ Chiefs

Three weeks ago, I said the Chiefs would be a better team if they could stop turning the ball over. In their last 4 games, they've only turned the ball over 3 times, and this week, for the first time all season, they didn't turn the ball over at all. Turnovers haven't been the Chiefs only problem, but as long as they have them under control, they should be able to beat some of their lesser opponents.

49ers @ Rams

It shouldn't be too much of a surprise that Colin Kaepernick looked a lot like a 2nd-year player on his 3rd start. The 49ers had just 3 drives go longer than 19 yards. Even without the safety and lost fumble, it's really hard to win in the NFL when your offense only scores 13 points.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-0, SRS: 1-2, Line: 1-2)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)

This game is the perfect example of why yards gained is a lousy measure of how good an offense is. The Raiders gained 429 yards in this game, But for all those yards gained, they only managed to score 17 points, including a late, garbage-time touchdown.

Cardinals (SRS) @ Jets (APR, Line)

This was certainly a highly winnable game for the Cardinals. But their offense just wasn't able to move the ball, going 0-15 on 3rd down conversions. Play calling was also an issue for the Cardinals. Early in the game, they elected to go for a 4th down conversion (which failed) rather than taking a chip-shot field goal. A decision that must loom large in a game decided by 1 point.

Colts (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)

The Lions have been in pretty much every game they've played this year, and only lost by more than 8 points one time. But like the Panthers, they are just not able to establish and hang on to a 4th-quarter lead.

Totals

A nice week for APR would've been nicer if so many unanimous picks hadn't gone wrong.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			108	-	67	-	1	61.6%
SRS	9	-	7			104	-	71	-	1	59.4%
Line	9	-	7			114	-	61	-	1	65.1%

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.0867 (LW × 1.0290)	9-3	Won by 7 @ Dolphins
2 (-)	Broncos	1.0665 (LW × 1.0178)	9-3	Won by 8 vs Buccaneers
3 (↑1)	Texans	1.0224 (LW × 1.0050)	11-1	Won by 14 @ Titans
4 (↓1)	49ers	1.0157 (LW × 0.9794)	8-3-1	Lost by 3 @ Rams
5 (↑2)	Packers	0.9891 (LW × 1.0038)	8-4	Won by 9 vs Vikings
6 (↑3)	Seahawks	0.9801 (LW × 1.0156)	7-5	Won by 6 @ Bears
7 (↓1)	Giants	0.9778 (LW × 0.9921)	7-5	Lost by 1 @ Redskins
8 (-)	Falcons	0.9736 (LW × 1.0053)	11-1	Won by 10 vs Saints
9 (↓4)	Bears	0.9596 (LW × 0.9659)	8-4	Lost by 6 vs Seahawks
10 (-)	Ravens	0.9541 (LW × 0.9926)	9-3	Lost by 3 vs Steelers
11 (↑2)	Steelers	0.9455 (LW × 1.0354)	7-5	Won by 3 @ Ravens
12 (↑2)	Bengals	0.9393 (LW × 1.0322)	7-5	Won by 7 @ Chargers
13 (↓2)	Buccaneers	0.9240 (LW × 1.0043)	6-6	Lost by 8 @ Broncos
14 (↓2)	Saints	0.9184 (LW × 1.0027)	5-7	Lost by 10 @ Falcons
15 (↑1)	Colts	0.9061 (LW × 1.0286)	8-4	Won by 2 @ Lions
16 (↑2)	Redskins	0.8963 (LW × 1.0193)	6-6	Won by 1 vs Giants
17 (↑3)	Dolphins	0.8733 (LW × 1.0086)	5-7	Lost by 7 vs Patriots
18 (↑5)	Rams	0.8723 (LW × 1.0259)	5-6-1	Won by 3 vs 49ers
19 (↓2)	Cowboys	0.8692 (LW × 0.9872)	6-6	Won by 5 vs Eagles
20 (↓5)	Vikings	0.8648 (LW × 0.9808)	6-6	Lost by 9 @ Packers
21 (↑4)	Bills	0.8628 (LW × 1.0236)	5-7	Won by 16 vs Jaguars
22 (↓3)	Lions	0.8618 (LW × 0.9837)	4-8	Lost by 2 vs Colts
23 (↓1)	Jets	0.8602 (LW × 1.0100)	5-7	Won by 1 vs Cardinals
24 (↑2)	Browns	0.8579 (LW × 1.0244)	4-8	Won by 3 @ Raiders
25 (↓4)	Panthers	0.8467 (LW × 0.9789)	3-9	Lost by 6 @ Chiefs
26 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8389 (LW × 0.9903)	4-8	Lost by 7 vs Bengals
27 (-)	Titans	0.8125 (LW × 0.9881)	4-8	Lost by 14 vs Texans
28 (-)	Cardinals	0.7737 (LW × 0.9964)	4-8	Lost by 1 @ Jets
29 (-)	Raiders	0.7600 (LW × 1.0006)	3-9	Lost by 3 vs Browns
30 (↑1)	Eagles	0.7382 (LW × 1.0008)	3-9	Lost by 5 @ Cowboys
31 (↓1)	Jaguars	0.7339 (LW × 0.9847)	2-10	Lost by 16 @ Bills
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.7326 (LW × 1.0341)	2-10	Won by 6 vs Panthers

Comments:

• Statistically, the Patriots look very similar to last year's team. They again have the #1 offense (both by yards gained and points scored), and a middle-of-the-pack defense. With Belichick as head coach and Tom Brady as quarterback, it's hard to pick against them going deep into the playoffs again this year.

• The Saints continue to rise and fall on the performance of Drew Brees. They are 5-0 when his passer rating is over 110, and 0-7 when it is under 110.

• The Chiefs' second win brings them up nearly even with the Jaguars. A decent showing next week (or a bad loss by the Jaguars) could lift them out of last place.

• Some of the playoff picture is starting to shape up. The Texans, Patriots, Broncos, and Falcons have all clinched playoff spots.

• It looks like the AFC playoff teams are mostly set, with the last wildcard spot probably coming down to the week 16 matchup between the Bengals and Steelers.

• The NFC side of the playoffs is still pretty wide open, with 4 teams a game back of the final wildcard spot. The bad news for all those teams on the outside looking in is that the Packers, Bears, and Seahawks all have pretty easy remaining schedules, and so don't seem likely to slip out of the playoffs.

• There are a couple of exceptions. With the Giants losing to the Redskins, the East is still wide open, and with the 49ers losing to the Rams, the Seahawks still have a chance to win the NFC West.

NFL Q3 Strength of Schedule

Rank	Team	SOS unplayed	Rank	SOS played
1	Vikings	0.9644	21	0.8843
2	Ravens	0.9452	30	0.8579
3	Cardinals	0.9420	6	0.9080
4	Dolphins	0.9381	28	0.8632
5	Rams	0.9269	4	0.9100
6	Saints	0.9227	23	0.8796
7	Lions	0.9170	12	0.8957
8	Eagles	0.9143	13	0.8943
9	Falcons	0.9115	32	0.8438
10	Texans	0.9011	22	0.8801
11	Patriots	0.8997	24	0.8782
12	Buccaneers	0.8977	27	0.8653
13	49ers	0.8976	9	0.8996
14	Seahawks	0.8947	10	0.8988
15	Bears	0.8938	18	0.8909
16	Titans	0.8907	11	0.8978
17	Packers	0.8893	5	0.9082
18	Giants	0.8883	15	0.8920
19	Steelers	0.8861	31	0.8577
20	Jaguars	0.8840	7	0.9078
21	Colts	0.8801	26	0.8702
22	Redskins	0.8758	16	0.8911
23	Chiefs	0.8733	8	0.9000
24	Cowboys	0.8683	3	0.9146
25	Bengals	0.8645	29	0.8616
26	Chargers	0.8580	25	0.8736
27	Raiders	0.8545	19	0.8861
28	Browns	0.8534	17	0.8911
29	Bills	0.8528	14	0.8934
30	Panthers	0.8343	2	0.9251
31	Broncos	0.8319	20	0.8861
32	Jets	0.8058	1	0.9373

Comments:

• As usual, these numbers don't include the result of Thursday night's game.

• The surging Redskins are the only team left on the Ravens' schedule with a losing record. If they're anywhere as good as their 9-2 record, the Ravens will have plenty of chances to prove it.

• The Vikings are another team with a brutal remaining schedule. They may not make it to 8 wins this year.

• The Jets finally overtake the Broncos for easiest remaining schedule, which means they have at least a shot of getting to 9-7. The bad news is it'll probably take at least 10 wins to get a wildcard spot in the AFC this year.

• The Packers and Bears both have relatively easy remaining schedules; the NFC North is probably going to come down to their second match-up in week 15.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Texans @ Titans	Texans ρ=1.2372	Texans* δ=17.5	Texans -5½
Panthers @ Chiefs	Panthers ρ=1.2210	Panthers* δ=11.6	Panthers -2½
Patriots @ Dolphins	Patriots ρ=1.2197	Patriots* δ=17.1	Patriots -9
49ers @ Rams	49ers ρ=1.2196	49ers* δ=13.7	49ers -7
Eagles @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.1937	Cowboys δ=8.9	Cowboys -9½
Buccaneers @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.1390	Broncos δ=4.7	Broncos -7
Jaguars @ Bills	Bills* ρ=1.1309	Bills δ=4.6	Bills -6
Giants @ Redskins	Giants ρ=1.1208	Giants* δ=6.6	Giants -2½
Vikings @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1176	Packers δ=4.4	Packers -9
Browns @ Raiders	Browns ρ=1.1026	Browns* δ=9.4	Raiders -1½
Cardinals @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0967	Cardinals* δ=1.0	Jets -4½
Bengals @ Chargers	Bengals ρ=1.0742	Bengals* δ=1.9	Bengals -1
Saints @ Falcons	Falcons* ρ=1.0573	Falcons δ=4.7	Falcons -3½
Steelers @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0527	Ravens δ=4.6	Ravens -9
Seahawks @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0294	Bears δ=4.4	Bears -4½
Colts @ Lions	Colts* ρ=1.0055	Lions δ=5.7	Lions -4½

Comments:

• No line for Steelers @ Ravens at the moment; I'll update later in the week. Update: football locks is saying Ravens -9. Sounds good to me.

• It seems like there's a lot of match-ups this week to determine draft position. Does anyone really want to watch Browns @ Raiders?

• At least the Panthers should get their 4th win, and maybe even finally drop of the "Teams APR likes more than ESPN" list.

• SRS makes another rogue pick. This time I'm not sure that's totally wrong. Certainly, I think the Cardinals would have a decent chance to beat the Jets if the game was in Arizona instead of New Jersey.

• Should the Falcons be on upset alert again? My comments from week 10 still apply. And the Saints are 5-1 in their last 6 trips to Atlanta...