NFL Week 2 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-3)

Right:

Cheifs @ Lions
Jaguars @ Jets (APR deferred)
Texans @ Dolphins
Packers @ Panthers
Browns @ Colts
Rams @ Giants

Wrong:

Buccaneers @ Vikings (SRS deferred)

The Vikings have been a great first-half team so far, outscoring their opponents a combined 34-7. The bad news is, the NFL insists that games be played for four quarters. And the Vikings have been a different, far worse team in the second half, giving up a total of 41 points, and scoring none.

Eagles @ Falcons

The way this game went, you'd think that Michael Vick was the Eagles' most important player on defense. When he was in the game, the Falcons' offense was mostly stopped cold by the Eagles defense. When Vick got knocked out late in the 3rd quarter, all the Eagles' D needed to do was protect their 10 point lead for just less than 17 minutes of football time. But somehow that never happened. The Falcons' offense was able to move the ball down the field for two 80-yard touchdown plays. Vick's loss was a blow to the offense, but the Eagles defensive collapse was at least as big an issue.

Ravens @ Titans

We saw this last year in the playoff game against the Saints, and now again in this game: Matt Hasselbeck can still throw the ball. And when he has a good game, he can throw well on even a good defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens discover that playing on emotion can only get you so far.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-7, SRS 3-4, Line 7-0)

Ouch. Easily APRs' worst week to date.

Bengals (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)

So, it's no surprise that the Bengals, with their rookie quarterback, went to Denver and came away with a loss, right? What is a surprise is that Andy Dalton looked pretty good: 332 yards and 2 touchdowns passing, with no interceptions. Dalton still has a ways to go, but somehow I think Bengals' fans may actually have reason to be optimistic about the future.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

In week 1, the Bears won because of 3 big plays, and a smothering defense that Matt Ryan just couldn't get started against. In week 2, they faced a quarterback who did get going against their defense. And while the Bears did have a few big plays, it wasn't nearly enough to keep up.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

So, the rumors of the Steelers' demise turn out to be greatly exaggerated. And with the Ravens' face-plant against the Titans, the AFC North is still very much in play.

Cardinals (APR) @ Redskins (SRS, Line)

Sometimes, a game is a battle between two teams to see which one is best. And sometimes, it's a battle to see which one is worst. In spite of two interceptions, 3 sacks, and 97 penalty yards, the Cardinals led for most of this game. But the defense let the Redskins drive for a couple late scores that gave them the lead. The Cardinals' last chance was snuffed out on a final, lost fumble. Both of these teams are better than they were last year, but that's a low bar to clear, and they've both got a long way to go to contend at the highest levels of the league.

Raiders (APR) @ Bills (SRS, Line)

I could've used that "sometimes it's a battle to see which one is worst" bit for this game, too. Instead, I will just say that it's really not a good thing when your opponent scores 35 points, even if you do win the game.

Chargers (APR) @ Patriots (SRS, Line)

What's wrong with the Patriots offense? Yeah, Brady put up impressive passing numbers. But their defense turned the Chargers away from the endzone time after time, had 4 take-aways, and somehow this game was within 7 points until very late in the 4th quarter. It seems to me with an advantage like that, the Patriots should've put this game away much earlier.

Cowboys (Line) @ 49ers (APR, SRS)

I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. Last week, they took the Jets to the wire, and except for a couple of mistakes, could've easily won. This week, they need a late comeback and overtime to get by the 49ers. On second thought, maybe that says exactly where the Cowboys are right now: inconsistent.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	6-10	6-10	37.5%
SRS	9- 7	9- 7	56.3%
Line	13- 3	13- 3	81.3%

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑2)	Packers	1.3014 (LW × 1.1430)	2-0	Won by 7 @ Panthers
2 (↑10)	Jets	1.2525 (LW × 1.1630)	2-0	Won by 29 vs Jaguars
3 (↑13)	Bills	1.1994 (LW × 1.1244)	2-0	Won by 3 vs Raiders
4 (↑2)	Patriots	1.1074 (LW × 1.0161)	2-0	Won by 14 vs Chargers
5 (↑16)	Saints	1.0872 (LW × 1.3179)	1-1	Won by 17 vs Bears
6 (↑3)	Raiders	1.0860 (LW × 1.0029)	1-1	Lost by 3 @ Bills
7 (↓5)	Lions	1.0782 (LW × 0.9419)	2-0	Won by 45 vs Chiefs
8 (↑14)	Broncos	1.0757 (LW × 1.3659)	1-1	Won by 2 vs Bengals
9 (↓5)	Cardinals	1.0712 (LW × 0.9408)	1-1	Lost by 1 @ Redskins
10 (↑7)	Titans	1.0397 (LW × 1.0726)	1-1	Won by 13 vs Ravens
11 (↑6)	Cowboys	1.0303 (LW × 1.0629)	1-1	Won by 3 @ 49ers
12 (↓4)	Redskins	0.9977 (LW × 0.9205)	2-0	Won by 1 vs Cardinals
13 (↓12)	Bengals	0.9650 (LW × 0.8429)	1-1	Lost by 2 @ Broncos
14 (↓3)	Bears	0.9634 (LW × 0.8923)	1-1	Lost by 17 @ Saints
15 (↓3)	Jaguars	0.9453 (LW × 0.8777)	1-1	Lost by 29 @ Jets
16 (↓2)	Texans	0.9382 (LW × 0.8773)	2-0	Won by 10 @ Dolphins
17 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8821 (LW × 1.0672)	0-2	Lost by 7 vs Packers
18 (↓3)	Ravens	0.8707 (LW × 0.8150)	1-1	Lost by 13 @ Titans
19 (↓9)	49ers	0.8648 (LW × 0.7994)	1-1	Lost by 3 vs Cowboys
20 (↑4)	Browns	0.8503 (LW × 1.2737)	1-1	Won by 8 @ Colts
21 (↓14)	Eagles	0.8288 (LW × 0.7635)	1-1	Lost by 3 @ Falcons
22 (↑3)	Giants	0.7703 (LW × 1.2196)	1-1	Won by 12 vs Rams
23 (↓19)	Chargers	0.7467 (LW × 0.6558)	1-1	Lost by 14 @ Patriots
24 (↓5)	Vikings	0.7462 (LW × 0.9027)	0-2	Lost by 4 vs Buccaneers
25 (↓2)	Buccaneers	0.7447 (LW × 1.1088)	1-1	Won by 4 @ Vikings
26 (↑3)	Steelers	0.7434 (LW × 1.2300)	1-1	Won by 24 vs Seahawks
27 (-)	Falcons	0.7428 (LW × 1.1907)	1-1	Won by 3 vs Eagles
28 (↑4)	Chiefs	0.6954 (LW × 1.4441)	0-2	Lost by 45 @ Lions
29 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.6335 (LW × 1.2346)	0-2	Lost by 10 vs Texans
30 (↓2)	Colts	0.5950 (LW × 0.9812)	0-2	Lost by 8 vs Browns
31 (-)	Rams	0.5649 (LW × 1.1146)	0-2	Lost by 12 @ Giants
32 (↓6)	Seahawks	0.5632 (LW × 0.8973)	0-2	Lost by 24 @ Steelers

Comments:

• Big movers: Saints ↑16, Broncos ↑14, Bills ↑13, Bengals ↓12, Eagles ↓14, Chargers ↓19.

• The Packers are 2-0, but after giving up nearly 400 passing yards twice in a row, there has to be some real concern that their defense has had a major drop-off.

• On the other hand, every other NFC playoff team is 1-1(*), and each appears to have troubles of their own. Could the Lions be the Packers biggest threat to a repeat Super Bowl appearance?

• The Bills, Raiders, and Broncos appear to be holding each other up in the rankings without much actual support. I expect most if not all will all fall back at least to the middle of the rankings in the next week or two.

• I figured the Chiefs would struggle this season, but with Jamaal Charles out for the season, there has to be a real question if they can even win 4 games this year.

• Jay Cutler has been sacked 11 times in two games. The Bears O-line needs to get a lot better, really fast, if they want Cutler to stay healthy down the stretch.

(*) ETA: Except, I guess, the Seahawks. They still count as a playoff team, right?

NFL Week 2 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Chiefs @ Lions	Lions ρ=2.3771	Lions δ=41.0	Lions -9
Texans @ Dolphins	Texans ρ=2.0840	Texans δ=41.0	Texans -3
Eagles @ Falcons	Eagles ρ=1.7400	Eagles δ=36.0	Eagles -2½
Bengals @ Broncos	Bengals ρ=1.4537	Bengals δ=13.0	Broncos -4½
Packers @ Panthers	Packers ρ=1.3774	Packers δ=15.0	Packers -10½
Bears @ Saints	Bears ρ=1.3087	Bears δ=26.0	Saints -7
Rams @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.2461	Giants δ=4.0	Giants -4½
Buccaneers @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.2308	push δ=0.0	Vikings -3
Cowboys @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.1161	49ers δ=19.0	Cowboys -3
Ravens @ Titans	Ravens ρ=1.1021	Ravens δ=30.0	Ravens -6½
Browns @ Colts	Browns ρ=1.1010	Browns δ=17.0	Browns -2
Cardinals @ Redskins	Cardinals ρ=1.0504	Redskins δ=7.0	Redskins -4
Chargers @ Patriots	Chargers ρ=1.0447	Patriots δ=7.0	Patriots -7
Seahawks @ Steelers	Seahawks ρ=1.0386	Seahawks δ=12.0	Steelers -15
Raiders @ Bills	Raiders ρ=1.0151	Bills δ=31.0	Bills -4
Jaguars @ Jets	push ρ=1.0000	Jets δ=1.0	Jets -10

Comments:

• For the first time, there are a couple of matchups of teams tied in the rankings. One each for APR (Jaguars @ Jets) and SRS (Buccaneers @ Vikings). These will be counted as ties in the result tallies.

• Bears @ Saints will be a marquee matchup of the afternoon, and a game that the Saints will need to win to avoid falling to 0-2. It will definitely be interesting to see how Brees does against the Bears pass rush, especially Julius Peppers.

• APR's pick of the Raiders seems pretty flukey to me. In the 8 seasons since their Super Bowl run, the Raiders have won just 6 road games outside the AFC West.

• Speaking of flukey, the Seahawks over the Steelers? Even a struggling Steelers team should be able to handle the Seahawks, especially in Pittsburgh.

• Is the Rams' season already over? They'll be on the road facing a Giants' squad stinging from a 14-point loss to the Redskins. After that, they've got the Ravens, Packers, Cowboys, and Saints coming up. Especially without Steven Jackson, they could easily have 5 or 6 losses before they play their first division game week 9.

• The Cardinals haven't won at the Redskins since 2000. Kevin Kolb still looked pretty green last Sunday, so it seems likely the Cardinals RFK/Landover losing streak will extend past next week.

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-5)

Right:

Vikings @ Chargers
Cowboys @ Jets
Eagles @ Rams
Saints @ Packers
Panthers @ Cardinals
Seahawks @ 49ers
Patriots @ Dolphins

Wrong:

Bills @ Chiefs

During the preseason, I mentioned that I thought the Chiefs had regressed from last year. Their offensive struggles continue (the Chiefs had two drives longer than 20 yards), and turnovers gave the Bills a bunch of short fields that they turned into scores.

Falcons @ Bears

The Falcons made a handful of costly mistakes in this game: letting a screen pass go 56 yards for a touchdown, letting Devon Hester get 53 yards on another short pass, and giving up another touchdown to Brian Urlacher on a fumble-sack. Take away even two of those mistakes, and this is a much closer game, and one that the Falcons could have easily won.

Lions @ Buccaneers

Another game that tends to confirm my preseason evaluations. The Lions can't be real happy about nearly letting this one slip away, but it's a good sign that they were able to hold on to a win on the road.

Giants @ Redskins

The Giants plain got out-played in this game. Rex Grossman had a career day against their defense, and their offense couldn't move the ball—just 3 drives longer than 19 yards.

Bengals @ Browns

The Browns just aren't good enough to win when they only score 17 points. Especially when the defense lets Cedric Benson run up and down the field.

Split Picks: (Pythag: 1-3, Line: 3-1)

Raiders (Pythag) @ Broncos (Line)

The Broncos lack of rushing defense strikes again: 190 yards allowed, including 150 by Darren McFadden. An interception and two lost fumbles ended drives that could have given the Broncos the points they needed to win.

Titans (Pythag) @ Jaguars (Line)

The two things that stand out to me in this game is the lack of production from Chris Johnson (9 carries for 24 yards), and the Titans 3rd down conversion rate (4 of 11). On the other side, Luke McCown didn't do anything disastrous, the Jaguars rushed for 163 yards, and converted 9 of 18 3rd downs. Not the most amazing performance this week, but it was enough to get the Jaguars by the Titans.

Colts (Pythag) @ Titans (Line)

No prizes for guessing that the Colts would struggle without Peyton Manning, or that Kerry Collins would look very rusty after missing almost the whole preseason. Still, that was even worse than I was expecting. If Collins had not fumbled twice, and the Colts special teams had not given up a touchdown... well, at least the Texans would've had to play into the second half to win the game.

Steelers (Pythag) @ Ravens (Line)

An ugly game for the defending AFC Champions. The headline has been the Steelers' seven turnovers, but their defense wasn't stopping the Ravens' offense even when they needed to drive the field. The good news for the Steelers is they now have a pretty soft stretch in their schedule, and will have every chance to get things fixed before the rematch in week 9.

Totals

Pythagorean	8	8
Line	10	6

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1	Bengals	1.1448	1-0	Won by 10 @ Browns
2	Lions	1.1447	1-0	Won by 7 @ Buccaneers
3	Packers	1.1386	1-0	Won by 8 vs Saints
T 4	Cardinals	1.1386	1-0	Won by 7 vs Panthers
T 4	Chargers	1.1386	1-0	Won by 7 vs Vikings
6	Patriots	1.0898	1-0	Won by 14 @ Dolphins
7	Eagles	1.0855	1-0	Won by 18 @ Rams
8	Redskins	1.0839	1-0	Won by 14 vs Giants
9	Raiders	1.0828	1-0	Won by 3 @ Broncos
10	49ers	1.0818	1-0	Won by 16 vs Seahawks
11	Bears	1.0796	1-0	Won by 18 vs Falcons
T12	Jaguars	1.0770	1-0	Won by 2 vs Titans
T12	Jets	1.0770	1-0	Won by 3 vs Cowboys
14	Texans	1.0694	1-0	Won by 27 vs Colts
15	Ravens	1.0682	1-0	Won by 28 vs Steelers
16	Bills	1.0667	1-0	Won by 34 @ Chiefs
T17	Titans	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 2 @ Jaguars
T17	Cowboys	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 3 @ Jets
T19	Vikings	0.8266	0-1	Lost by 7 @ Chargers
T19	Panthers	0.8266	0-1	Lost by 7 @ Cardinals
21	Saints	0.8250	0-1	Lost by 8 @ Packers
22	Broncos	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 3 vs Raiders
23	Buccaneers	0.6716	0-1	Lost by 7 vs Lions
24	Browns	0.6676	0-1	Lost by 10 vs Bengals
25	Giants	0.6316	0-1	Lost by 14 @ Redskins
26	Seahawks	0.6277	0-1	Lost by 16 @ 49ers
27	Falcons	0.6238	0-1	Lost by 18 @ Bears
28	Colts	0.6064	0-1	Lost by 27 @ Texans
29	Steelers	0.6044	0-1	Lost by 28 @ Ravens
30	Dolphins	0.5132	0-1	Lost by 14 vs Patriots
31	Rams	0.5069	0-1	Lost by 18 vs Eagles
32	Chiefs	0.4816	0-1	Lost by 34 vs Bills

Comments:

• As usual, don't read too much into these rankings. Things will be a lot more settled in a couple more weeks.

• The good news for the Packers is they score 42 points on the Saints. The bad news is they pretty much needed all of them to win. I know Drew Brees is a very good quarterback, but the Packers defense missed a lot of tackles they really should have made.

• That was a really bad loss for the Steelers. This is only the second loss by 28+ points in more than 20 years.

• McNabb and the Vikings offense were pretty bad: 39 total yards passing. And yet, somehow they had the lead going into the 4th quarter. The Vikings will have to do a lot better to avoid a last-place finish in the NFC North.

• Cam Newton looked good (especially for a rookie), and seemed to pick up Cardinals' blitz well. We'll see how it goes once teams start to get more game footage of Newton to study, but it sure looks like the Panthers picked the right quarterback this time.

• Tarvaris Jackson actually had an OK game for the Seahawks, but a slow start let the 49ers build a lead, and a couple of special-teams breakdowns put the game out of reach before the Seahawks could catch up.

• The Cowboys' O-line doesn't look much better than it did last year: Romo was sacked 4 times. He'll have a tough time finishing the year (again) at that rate.

NFL Week 1 Picks

The lines for the Monday night games are finally up, so it's time for week 1 picks! All line values are from yahoo.

See last year's week 1 picks for an explanation of how this table was generated.

Game	Pythag (std)	Pythag (R/H)		Line
Patriots @ Dolphins	Patriots (0.3830)	Patriots (0.4290)		Patriots -7
Vikings @ Chargers	Chargers (0.3022)	Chargers (0.4753)		Chargers -9
Bills @ Chiefs	Chiefs (0.2920)	Chiefs (0.4659)		Chiefs -6½
Raiders @ Broncos	Raiders (0.2370)	Raiders (0.1094)		Broncos -3
Giants @ Redskins	Giants (0.2032)	Giants (0.1952)		Giants -3
Cowboys @ Jets	Jets (0.1710)	Jets (0.2943)		Jets -4
Eagles @ Rams	Eagles (0.1637)	Eagles (0.0532)		Eagles -4½
Titans @ Jaguars	Titans (0.1309)	Titans (0.0553)		Jaguars -3
Saints @ Packers	Packers (0.1278)	Packers (0.1736)		Packers -4
Panthers @ Cardinals	Cardinals (0.1265)	Cardinals (0.2909)		Cardinals -7
Colts @ Texans	Colts (0.1208)	Colts (0.0134)		Texans -8
Falcons @ Bears	Falcons (0.1118)	Falcons (0.1810)		Falcons -3
Steelers @ Ravens	Steelers (0.0976)	Steelers (0.0427)		Ravens -2½
Seahawks @ 49ers	49ers (0.0818)	49ers (0.4349)		49ers -5½
Lions @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers (0.0526)	Buccaneers (0.0714)		Buccaneers -1½
Bengals @ Browns	Browns (0.0007)	Browns (0.0607)		Browns -6½

Comments:

• As usual, week 1 picks are based on each team's Pythagorean projection. This year, the standard and Road/Home versions are in unanimous agreement.

• The NFL started opening the regular season with a game on Thursday night in 2002. Since then, the home team is 8-1 in these games.

• Most of these games have finished relatively close. The Colts are the only team that won by more than 11 points, ironically beating the Saints 41-10 to open the 2007 season.

• Speaking of the Colts, Peyton Manning's health has been a big issue. In 2008, when Manning missed the preseason with a knee issue, the Colts started out 3-4 in their first 7 games, so it's no stretch to predict the Colts will struggle again this year. But the Colts finished 2008 with 9 wins and a 12-4 record, so it's too early to call them out of it as long as Manning can eventually get back under center.

• The one pick that seems most likely to be wrong is for Lions @ Buccaneers. The Lions (especially on defense) look a lot better than they were last year, while the Bucs look more-or-less the same as last year (an OK team that took full advantage of a very soft schedule). This will definitely be a game to keep an eye on Sunday afternoon.

• Update: wow! Reports are coming in Tuesday afternoon that the Jaguars have cut their erstwhile starting quarterback (and one of the few bright spots on offense last year) David Garrard. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

1961 + 50

The 1958 season is probably the lowest point in the history of the Green Bay Packers franchise. In 12 games played, they managed only one win and one tie. To date, it's the only season the Packers didn't manage at least two wins. But if you look at the roster for that 1958 team, there are a lot of familiar names, including some Hall-of-Fame players: Bart Starr, Paul Hornung, Max McGee, Jim Ringo, Ray Nitschke, Forrest Gregg, Jim Taylor. All of these guys played important roles in the Packers' championship runs of the 1960s.

But one of the key pieces for the Packers didn't arrive until 1959: Coach Vince Lombardi. When he took over, he had an immediate impact: in Lombardi's first season, the Packers had a winning record for the first time since 1947. In Lombardi's second season, the Packers returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1944.

50 years ago this month, the Packers began their third season under Coach Lombardi, and he took the first step from local hero to all-time NFL great. In 1961, the Packers won the NFL Western division, advancing to the Championship game, where they beat the New York Giants in convincing fashion.

The 1961 season was the start of a (so far) unprecedented streak of 5 NFL Championships (and victories in the first two Super Bowls), accomplished in just 7 years. No other team, no other coach has matched that level of dominance. The Browns played in 6 straight NFL championship games from 1950-1955 (winning 3). The Steelers with coach Chuck Noll won 4 Super Bowls in 6 years in the 1970s. The 49ers won 4 Super Bowls in the 1980s, and another after the 1994 season under coaches Bill Walsh and George Seifert. Those are the only cases where any teams have even come close to matching what Coach Lombardi and the Green Bay Packers accomplished in the 1960s.

Vince Lombardi stepped down as head coach of the Packers after the 1967 season, and it quickly became apparent that he was a keystone of those championship teams. In the 24 seasons following Coach Lombardi's resignation, the Packers had just 4 winning seasons and two playoff appearances. This streak of futility didn't end until 1992, when newly-hired General Manager Ron Wolf brought in Mike Holmgren to be head coach, along with players like Brett Favre and Reggie White to be the core of a new championship run.

When Coach Lombardi arrived in Green Bay, the Packers could already lay claim to 6 NFL Championship titles. When he left, that total had been raised to 11, and Green Bay had an indisputable claim to the nickname "Titletown". And since his name was given to the Super Bowl trophy, the name "Lombardi" has become justifiably associated with success at the highest level of professional football.