NFL Wildcard Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Steelers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Broncos

The Steelers offense had their troubles in this game (5 sacks, 4 punts and a bad interception), but with their defense, 23 points should've been enough to beat the Broncos. But the Steelers defense suffered some critical injuries, and the rest looked (in the words of Warren Sapp), old and slow. The result was Tim Tebow having a career day passing (316 yards and 2 touchdowns). And now, for the Steelers, it is over.

Lions @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

The Lions made more of a game of this than I was expecting—leading at halftime, and only down 4 at the start of the 4th quarter. But their defense just couldn't stop the Saints. Other than two fumbles, every Saints drive (until the very end of the game) ended in a score, all touchdowns, except for one field goal.

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Last spring, the Falcons decided they needed a big upgrade in their offense, so they traded up to get wide receiver Julio Jones. The results of this game are a strong indication that 1) the Falcons were right in concluding they needed to improve their offense, and 2) one wide recever was not enough. The Falcons only had 4 drives longer than 25 yards, and they all ended with a failed 4th-down conversion attempt.

Bengals @ Texans (APR, SRS, Line)

The Texans played perfectly to their strengths—ran a lot (35 carries for 188 yard), played outstanding defense (Dalton was sacked 4 times, intercepted 3 times, and the Bengals were held to just 10 points), and kept as much pressure off of T.J. Yates as possible. Yates only completed 11 passes for 159 yards, but that was more than enough.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	2-2	2-2	50.0%
SRS	2-2	2-2	50.0%
Line	3-1	3-1	75.0%

NFL Wildcard Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Saints	1.0699 (LW × 1.0204)	14-3	Won by 17 vs Lions
2 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0543 (LW × 1.0026)	13-3	Bye
3 (-)	49ers	1.0241 (LW × 0.9841)	13-3	Bye
4 (-)	Packers	1.0151 (LW × 0.9984)	15-1	Bye
5 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9728 (LW × 0.9731)	12-4	Bye
6 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9685 (LW × 1.0036)	8-8	Bye
7 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9547 (LW × 0.9516)	12-5	Lost by 6 @ Broncos
8 (↑3)	Giants	0.9444 (LW × 1.0324)	10-7	Won by 22 vs Falcons
9 (↓1)	Seahawks	0.9361 (LW × 0.9878)	7-9	Bye
10 (-)	Dolphins	0.9247 (LW × 1.0049)	6-10	Bye
11 (↓2)	Falcons	0.9049 (LW × 0.9610)	10-7	Lost by 22 @ Giants
12 (↑1)	Lions	0.9024 (LW × 0.9891)	10-7	Lost by 17 @ Saints
13 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.8955 (LW × 0.9814)	8-8	Bye
14 (-)	Texans	0.8905 (LW × 0.9928)	11-6	Won by 21 vs Bengals
15 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.8805 (LW × 1.0052)	8-8	Bye
16 (-)	Chargers	0.8782 (LW × 0.9959)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Jets	0.8707 (LW × 1.0068)	8-8	Bye
18 (↑3)	Broncos	0.8543 (LW × 1.0120)	9-8	Won by 6 vs Steelers
19 (↑1)	Bears	0.8439 (LW × 0.9979)	8-8	Bye
20 (↓1)	Titans	0.8428 (LW × 0.9882)	9-7	Bye
21 (↓6)	Bengals	0.8393 (LW × 0.9397)	9-8	Lost by 21 @ Texans
22 (-)	Panthers	0.8372 (LW × 0.9919)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	Chiefs	0.8334 (LW × 0.9979)	7-9	Bye
24 (↑1)	Raiders	0.8065 (LW × 0.9979)	8-8	Bye
25 (↑1)	Vikings	0.7984 (LW × 0.9975)	3-13	Bye
26 (↓2)	Browns	0.7955 (LW × 0.9713)	4-12	Bye
27 (↑1)	Redskins	0.7879 (LW × 1.0037)	5-11	Bye
28 (↓1)	Jaguars	0.7838 (LW × 0.9840)	5-11	Bye
29 (↑1)	Bills	0.7732 (LW × 1.0036)	6-10	Bye
30 (↓1)	Rams	0.7574 (LW × 0.9786)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Colts	0.7557 (LW × 0.9867)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6882 (LW × 0.9926)	4-12	Bye

Comments:

• This is the first time all four home teams won in the wildcard round since 2006.

• The Falcons @ Giants game is the first time since 1993 a team has scored exactly 2 points in a game, and the first time ever in the playoffs.

• The Broncos winning continues the streak of APR's lowest-ranked playoff team winning at least once in the playoffs (although this is the first time that it hasn't been the NFC West division winner).

• We also had the first playoff overtime game under the new rules designed to allow both teams at least one possession. Somewhat ironically featuring a game-winning touchdown on the first OT play from scrimmage, one of the few exceptions to the "at least one possession" rule.

• The Steelers loss also means the Super Bowl "losers curse" continues—going back to 1997, the Cardinals and Seahawks remain the only Super Bowl losers to win a playoff game the following season.

NFL Wrapup: APR's Biggest Upsets of 2011

How Upsets Were Determined

Using all game scores through week 16, the power index values for all teams were computed, using a non-weighted version of the APR ranking algorithm. (The final week of games is left out to avoid skewing the rankings with the results of games where teams are resting their starters, or otherwise not trying).

For the weekly power rankings, APR uses method that gives less weight to older games, emphasising each teams more recent perormances. This means that the matchup ratios (ρ) listed below will not correspond to the matchup ratios listed in the weekly game pick posts.

Once the power indexes are computed for each team, every game of the season (including week 17) is picked using the unweighted rankings. The wrong picks are sorted by matchup ratio, with the games having the largest ratios featured below.

Any game that I regard as not a "real" upset (because a team is resting its starters, or is indirectly affected by such) is not included in this list.

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

• Week 15: The Ravens have one of the top-ranked defenses this season, but when they traveled to San Diego, the Chargers moved the ball up and down the field all game long and made the Ravens look like they were a long ways from deserving the AFC's #2 seed.

• Week 7: The Seahawks traveled to Cleveland, but couldn't leave with a win because they couldn't score 7 points on the Browns.

• Week 2: The Cowboys come back from a 10-point 4th-quarter deficit and steal an overtime win from the 49ers.

• Week 15: The Texans defense didn't show up, T.J. Yates looked like an inexperienced rookie, and the Panthers left Houston with a convincing win over the AFC South division champions.

• Week 2: Early signs of the Ravens road troubles when they travel to Nashville and give up two touchdowns and 4 field goals to the Titans (who only scored 26+ points four times all season).

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2011 Season

10. Week 9: Giants 24, Patriots 20 (ρ=1.1663)
    Two sacks and 21 incompletions (including a couple interceptions) add up to probably Tom Brady's worst game of the season. Factor in 2 lost fumbles, and the Patriots just gave the Giants too many chances to win this game.

9. Week 15: Titans 13, Colts 27 (ρ=1.1742)
   An injured Matt Hasselbeck, an ineffective Jake Locker, and a Colts defense that finally put a whole game together finally got the Colts a win, and cost the Titans a playoff spot.

8. Week 14: 49ers 19, Cardinals 21 (ρ=1.1930)
   The 49ers have had trouble scoring points, especially on the road. Which means that (as with this game) it may only take a handful of big plays to beat them. Losing this game meant the 49ers had to win out to clinch the #2 seed over the Saints.

7. Week 3: Falcons 13, Buccaneers 16 (ρ=1.2068)
   The Buccaneers were actually a unanimous pick to win this game, but in hindsight, it has to be counted as a pretty embarrassing loss for the Falcons. This is the only game of the season the Buccaneers' opponent didn't score at least 17 points.

6. Week 7: Ravens 7, Jaguars 12 (ρ=1.2167)
   Unlike the Ravens' other road losses this season, their defense did a fine job in this game. But their offense didn't even generate 150 yards and couldn't put up enough points to out-score the Jaguars four field goals.

5. Week 2: Patriots 31, Bills 34 (ρ=1.2179)
   The Patriots established an early 21-0 lead in this game, but Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions, and that let the Bills back in the game, and gave them a chance to win on a last-second field goal.

4. Week 16: Texans 16, Colts 19 (ρ=1.2831)
   The Texans had too many sacks, too many penalties, and not enough touchdowns in this game. That left the door open for the Colts to take the lead on a late touchdown, and clinch their second win of the season.

3. Week 6: Saints 20, Buccaneers 26 (ρ=1.3163)
   Sean Payton got his knee busted up, Drew Brees threw 3 interceptions, and the Saints gave the Buccaneers their last win of the season.

2. Week 15: Packers 14, Chiefs 19 (ρ=1.3215)
   It's tempting to blame the Packers' defense for this loss, but their play here is comparable to the way they've played all season—they gave up a lot of yards, but not many points. The real problem was on the other side of the ball. The Packers' patchwork offensive line gave up 4 sacks, and their receivers dropped too many passes. The result was Aaron Rodgers posting a comletion ratio under 50% for just the 3rd start of his career, and the only game this season the Packers didn't score at least 24 points.

1. Week 8: Saints 21, Rams 31 (ρ=1.3721)
   Drew Brees got sacked a season-record 6 times in this game, threw 2 interceptions, and generally made the Rams' defense look like world-beaters. This makes 3 seasons in a row (2010, 2009) that the Saints are on the losing end of the season's biggest upset.

Eliminated Games

Most teams had something to play for right down to the end of the season, so no games were eliminated from the rankings this year.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were 34-3-0 this year.

Week	Game	Line
8	Saints 21, Rams 31	Saints -15½
10	Cardinals 21, Eagles 17	Eagles -14
15	Packers 14, Chiefs 19	Packers -14
5	Seahawks 36, Giants 25	Giants -9½
3	Patriots 31, Bills 34	Patriots -9
9	Giants 24, Patriots 20	Patriots -8½
13	Chiefs 10, Bears 3	Bears -8
7	Ravens 7, Jaguars 12	Ravens -8
9	Bears 30, Eagles 24	Eagles -8
4	49ers 24, Eagles 23	Eagles -7½
9	Broncos 38, Raiders 24	Raiders -7½

NFL Wildcard Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Steelers @ Broncos	Steelers ρ=1.1885	Steelers* δ=10.6	Steelers -8
Lions @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.1492	Saints δ=5.3	Saints -10½
Falcons @ Giants	Falcons ρ=1.0293	Falcons* δ=1.9	Giants -3
Bengals @ Texans	Texans* ρ=1.0041	Texans δ=4.1	Texans -3

Comments:

• The Steelers and Broncos have (by a pretty good margin) the two lowest-scoring offenses of any of the playoff teams. This could easily be another 7-3 or 13-9 game. That also means, unless the Steelers get a shut-out, 8 points seems like a lot to give.

• The Lions playoff game will be 20 years, almost to the day, since their last playoff win. The Bengals are the only team with a longer time since their last playoff win, 21 years ago

• That means the result of the Bengals @ Texans game will be notable no matter what—either the Bengals will end the NFL's longest active streak without a playoff win, or the Texans will get their first playoff win in franchise history.

• In the regular season meeting between the Lions and Saints, Matt Stafford was able to pass for more than 400 yards against the Saints defense, so the Lions aren't completely doomed. This time, though, they have to get touchdowns. Given the way the Saints score points, especially in the Super Dome, the Lions will get in trouble very quickly settling for field goals.

• The Giants are just 3-5 in their last 8 games, with two of those wins coming in games against the Cowboys. The Falcons haven't been much of a juggernaut either, but at least they've beaten more than two teams since the first week of November.

• I've made this point before, but it bears repeating: the Texans are 10-1 when they hold their opponent under 20 points. The performance of the Texans' defense is made even more critical by the fact that the Texans haven't scored more than 22 points since Matt Schaub got hurt.

NFL Week 17 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:

ESPN drops the Raiders (+8) 3 spots now that they are no longer playoff contenders.

ESPN gives the Titans (+7) a 3-spot bump for a 1-point victory over the nothing-to-play-for, Jake Delhomme-lead Titans.

However you feel about Tim Tebow, it's not a good sign that the Broncos (+7) have backed into the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak. They've only beaten one team (the Bengals in week 2) with a winning record.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-14)

No question that APR has the Fins ranked too high at #10. But (as noted by ESPN), they finished the season 6-3. They don't belong in the bottom 10, either.

Seahawks (-13)

Another over-rank by APR (#8). But they finished 5-3, including close losses to the 49ers (13-3 and the NFC's #2 seed), and the Cardinals (8-8).

On the bubble

A tough season for the Eagles (-8). Their early 4-game losing streak included last-second losses to the Falcons and 49ers, and left them one win and the right tie-breakers away from winning the division. They're probably the most dangerous team out of the playoffs.

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-1)

Right:

49ers @ Rams
Steelers @ Browns
Ravens @ Bengals
Bills @ Patriots
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Panthers @ Saints
Redskins @ Eagles
Colts @ Jaguars

Wrong:

Chiefs @ Broncos

This was a game of (mostly) offensive futility. The Broncos only had one drive longer than 36 yards, which ended with a field goal. The Chiefs only had one drive go more than 35 yards. But it ended in a touchdown, which was good enough to win this game.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-3, SRS 3-4, Line 4-3)

Lions (Line) @ Packers (APR, SRS)

In spite of some bad calls by the referees, the Lions had an extraordinary day offensively, including a 5-touchdown performance by Matt Stafford. But their defense just couldn't stop backup Matt Flynn. In spite of missing key starters Greg Jennings, James Starks, Randal Cobb, and Brian Bulaga, the Packers offense put up a franchise record 480 yards passing and 6 touchdowns.

Jets (SRS) @ Dolphins (APR, Line)

This one's pretty simple: Mark Sanchez threw 3 interceptions, which was just more than this team could overcome. The Jets were 0-5 this season when they had 3 or more turnovers.

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)

The Raiders had 6 scoring drives in this game, but 4 of them were for field goals. That turned out to be a problem, as their defense allowed the Chargers 4 touchdown drives, and thier special teams gave up another.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Vikings

As advertised, the "Battle of the backups" was a close game. Neither team lit things up, but the Vikings managed to be worst of a bad lot: 9 drives that ended with a punt or turnover meant that the Bears' 17 points was enough to win the game.

Titans (Line) @ Texans (APR, SRS)

The Texans are 10-1 when they hold their opponent under 20 points. Their offense (whether lead by Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, or Jake Delhomme) mostly hasn't put up a lot of points. This leads to a pretty simple formula for the Texans: when the defense struggles, they lose.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

Another close game, as expected. Perhaps the biggest factor in this game was Larry Fitzgerald (9 catches for 149 yards) who pretty much put this team on his back and carried them to the win.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Tony Romo didn't appear to be slowed down by his bruised hand, putting up 289 yards and 2 touchdowns passing, with a 78% completion rate. But 6 sacks, 7 penalties, and 2 turnovers meant that most of those yards did not culminate in scoring drives. And Eli Manning had a very good game (346 yards, 3 touchdowns passing, 73% completion rate), which allowed the Giants to build an early lead that the Cowboys never were able to overcome.

Totals

A good week all around, and (for APR and SRS) much better season season tallies than last year.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	12-4	153-86-1	64.0%
SRS	11-5	157-82-1	65.6%
Line	12-4	159-81-0	66.2%

Week 17 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.0515 (LW × 1.0084)	13-3	Won by 28 vs Bills
2 (↑2)	Saints	1.0485 (LW × 1.0248)	13-3	Won by 28 vs Panthers
3 (↓1)	49ers	1.0407 (LW × 1.0062)	13-3	Won by 7 @ Rams
4 (↓1)	Packers	1.0167 (LW × 0.9917)	15-1	Won by 4 vs Lions
5 (-)	Steelers	1.0033 (LW × 0.9942)	12-4	Won by 4 @ Browns
6 (-)	Ravens	0.9997 (LW × 1.0204)	12-4	Won by 8 @ Bengals
7 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9650 (LW × 1.0186)	8-8	Won by 24 vs Redskins
8 (↑1)	Seahawks	0.9476 (LW × 1.0056)	7-9	Lost by 3 @ Cardinals
9 (↓2)	Falcons	0.9416 (LW × 0.9913)	10-6	Won by 21 vs Buccaneers
10 (↑2)	Dolphins	0.9202 (LW × 1.0070)	6-10	Won by 2 vs Jets
11 (↑5)	Giants	0.9148 (LW × 1.0257)	9-7	Won by 17 vs Cowboys
12 (↑3)	Cardinals	0.9125 (LW × 1.0191)	8-8	Won by 3 vs Seahawks
13 (-)	Lions	0.9123 (LW × 1.0069)	10-6	Lost by 4 @ Packers
14 (↓4)	Texans	0.8969 (LW × 0.9665)	10-6	Lost by 1 vs Titans
15 (↓4)	Bengals	0.8932 (LW × 0.9741)	9-7	Lost by 8 vs Ravens
16 (↑3)	Chargers	0.8818 (LW × 1.0263)	8-8	Won by 12 @ Raiders
17 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.8760 (LW × 0.9731)	8-8	Lost by 17 @ Giants
18 (↓1)	Jets	0.8648 (LW × 1.0010)	8-8	Lost by 2 @ Dolphins
19 (↑3)	Titans	0.8528 (LW × 1.0219)	9-7	Won by 1 @ Texans
20 (↑1)	Bears	0.8457 (LW × 0.9997)	8-8	Won by 4 @ Vikings
21 (↓3)	Broncos	0.8442 (LW × 0.9792)	8-8	Lost by 4 vs Chiefs
22 (↓2)	Panthers	0.8440 (LW × 0.9946)	6-10	Lost by 28 @ Saints
23 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.8352 (LW × 1.0168)	7-9	Won by 4 @ Broncos
24 (↑2)	Browns	0.8190 (LW × 1.0091)	4-12	Lost by 4 vs Steelers
25 (↓2)	Raiders	0.8081 (LW × 0.9820)	8-8	Lost by 12 vs Chargers
26 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8004 (LW × 0.9827)	3-13	Lost by 4 vs Bears
27 (-)	Jaguars	0.7965 (LW × 0.9929)	5-11	Won by 6 vs Colts
28 (-)	Redskins	0.7850 (LW × 0.9955)	5-11	Lost by 24 @ Eagles
29 (-)	Rams	0.7739 (LW × 0.9990)	2-14	Lost by 7 vs 49ers
30 (-)	Bills	0.7704 (LW × 0.9965)	6-10	Lost by 28 @ Patriots
31 (-)	Colts	0.7659 (LW × 1.0139)	2-14	Lost by 6 @ Jaguars
32 (-)	Buccaneers	0.6933 (LW × 0.9804)	4-12	Lost by 21 @ Falcons

Comments:

• The Patriots, Saints, and 49ers are all pretty close together, with a pretty significant gap down to the Packers. APR doesn't take into account resting starters, and so the Packers slip down a bit more on their 3-point home victory.

• The Patriots get a blow-out win over the Bills, but it can't be a good sign they fell behind 21-0 before they got started scoring. Even early in the game, 21-point deficit is not easy to overcome in the playoffs, even playing at home.

• The Eagles are the highest-ranked non-playoff team, followed up closely by the Seahawks as the highest ranked team with a losing record.

• The Broncos are the lowest-ranked playoff team, a position that had been held by the NFC West champion the previous 3 seasons.

• The Raiders are the lowest-ranked 8-8 team, and the Titans are the lowest-ranked team with a winning record. But with the seasons those teams had, their ranking seems pretty reasonable.