NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-3)

Right:

Falcons @ Chiefs
Eagles @ Browns
Patriots @ Titans
Chargers @ Raiders
Rams @ Lions
Colts @ Bears
Dolphins @ Texans
Bills @ Jets
Jaguars @ Vikings
Bengals @ Ravens

Wrong:

Redskins @ Saints

Even for what has been a pretty unremarkable Saints' defense, this was a bad game, giving up 464 yards and 8 scores. But probably the Saints' biggest problem was their offensive line. Every time I looked at the game, it seemed like Drew Brees was running away from the Redskins' pass rush, and (usually) throwing the ball away. As a result, Brees had 28 incompletions (including 2 interceptions), and the Saints posted a measly 32 yards rushing.

Panthers @ Buccaneers

In 2010, the Buccaneers made it to 10 wins, largely on the strength of their defense (and an easy schedule). Sunday, it sure looked like they were back. The Buccaneers' defense had 3 sacks, two interceptions, and held Cam Newton and the rest of the Panthers to an astonishing 10 yards rushing.

Seahawks @ Cardinals

As I speculated in my preseason notes post, Russel Wilson looked a lot more like a rookie quarterback facing a regular-season NFL defense. And this game was like a lot of last year's games for the Cardinals. The defense played well, and left the door open for the offense to secure a win with some late-game heroics.

Split Picks: (Pythag: 2-1, Line: 1-2)

Steelers (Pythag) @ Broncos (Line)

Hard to call this anything except Manning being Manning. After 3 unproductive drives, the Broncos' offense scored on their next 4 drives (not counting a 1-play kneel-down at the end of the first half). And the Broncos' defense found out how much easier it is to play with a lead, and be able to assume their offense is probably going to score the next time they have the ball.

Cowboys (Pythag) @ Giants (Line)

This was really not a good game for the Giants on either side of the ball. They haven't had a game with fewer than 270 yards of offense since 2010 (and not at home since 2008). They weren't good on defense, either. The Giants' defense has allowed their share of 433+ yard games (again mostly on the road). But besides the Packers @ Giants game last year, you have to go back to 2005 to find the last time the Giants allowed that many yards at home.

Unless this game was a major fluke on the part of the Giants, they're going to need a big-time turnaround to avoid the mother of all Super Bowl hang-overs.

49ers (Pythag) @ Packers (Line)

As noted in the power rankings, this was just a terrible day for the Packers' defense. They didn't force the 49ers to punt for a second time until the end of the 3rd quarter. In the mean time, the 49ers scored on 5 consecutive drives. The Packers' defense seemed to get some traction late in the game, but by then it was too little, too late.

Totals

	R	W
Pythagorean	12	4
Line	11	5

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
T 1	49ers	1.1448	1-0	Won by 8 @ Packers
T 1	Redskins	1.1448	1-0	Won by 8 @ Saints
3	Cowboys	1.1447	1-0	Won by 7 @ Giants
4	Broncos	1.1386	1-0	Won by 12 vs Steelers
5	Falcons	1.0877	1-0	Won by 16 @ Chiefs
6	Eagles	1.0828	1-0	Won by 1 @ Browns
7	Patriots	1.0822	1-0	Won by 21 @ Titans
T 8	Bears	1.0774	1-0	Won by 20 vs Colts
T 8	Jets	1.0774	1-0	Won by 20 vs Bills
T 8	Texans	1.0774	1-0	Won by 20 vs Dolphins
T11	Cardinals	1.0770	1-0	Won by 4 vs Seahawks
T11	Buccaneers	1.0770	1-0	Won by 6 vs Panthers
T11	Lions	1.0770	1-0	Won by 4 vs Rams
T11	Vikings	1.0770	1-0	Won by 3 vs Jaguars
T11	Raiders	1.0770	1-0	Won by 2 vs Chargers
16	Ravens	1.0646	1-0	Won by 31 vs Bengals
T17	Jaguars	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 3 @ Vikings
T17	Chargers	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 2 @ Raiders
T17	Rams	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 4 @ Lions
T17	Seahawks	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 4 @ Cardinals
T17	Panthers	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 6 @ Buccaneers
22	Steelers	0.8183	0-1	Lost by 12 @ Broncos
23	Browns	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 1 vs Eagles
24	Giants	0.6716	0-1	Lost by 7 vs Cowboys
T25	Saints	0.6703	0-1	Lost by 8 vs Redskins
T25	Packers	0.6703	0-1	Lost by 8 vs 49ers
T27	Colts	0.6200	0-1	Lost by 20 @ Bears
T27	Bills	0.6200	0-1	Lost by 20 @ Jets
T27	Dolphins	0.6200	0-1	Lost by 20 @ Texans
30	Bengals	0.5986	0-1	Lost by 31 @ Ravens
31	Chiefs	0.5100	0-1	Lost by 16 vs Falcons
32	Titans	0.5021	0-1	Lost by 21 vs Patriots

Comments:

It's just one game into the season, with 16 more weeks to play, but I think we do have the start to some answers that I asked in the game picks:

• The Giants looked a lot more like the regular season version than their playoff version Wednesday night.

• The Saints look like they are in a lot of trouble. Their defense gave up 464 yards on Sunday, which gives them (at least for the week, but against some stiff competition) the worst defense of the 2012 season so far.

• The five rookie quarterbacks starting Sunday were a combined 1-4 this week. Robert Griffin III (2 tds 0 ints) and Russell Wilson (1 td 1 int) were the only ones not to throw at least 3 interceptions. We'll see how this plays out over the season, but it's hardly a resounding recommendation for starting a rookie QB right from day 1.

• Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, and MJD all seemed to be back to their old selves. Brian Urlacher was a non-factor in the Bears' game, but at least for one week, that didn't matter.

• As for the Packers defense... oh, brother. Is it possible it's gotten worse? Yet another game they gave up over 350 yards, and that to a 49ers team that has just a handful of 350+ yard games on the road outside the division in the last decade.

One other item of note: this is the first time since 1990 that the 49ers have beat the Packers in the regular season.

NFL Week 1 Picks

Game	Pythag	Pythag RH	Line
Rams @ Lions	Lions 0.4721	Lions 0.6523	Lions -8½
Redskins @ Saints	Saints 0.3964	Saints 0.5669	Saints -9½
Steelers @ Broncos	Steelers 0.3352	Steelers 0.1009	Broncos -1
Falcons @ Chiefs	Falcons 0.3326	Falcons 0.1970	Falcons -2
Colts @ Bears	Bears 0.3150	Bears 0.5308	Bears -9½
Eagles @ Browns	Eagles 0.3022	Eagles 0.3044	Eagles -8
Panthers @ Buccaneers	Panthers 0.2510	Panthers 0.1243	Panthers -2½
Patriots @ Titans	Patriots 0.2085	Patriots 0.2004	Patriots -6½
Bengals @ Ravens	Ravens 0.1597	Ravens 0.2465	Ravens -6
Chargers @ Raiders	Chargers 0.1530	Chargers 0.0701	Chargers -1½
Dolphins @ Texans	Texans 0.1490	Texans 0.1828	Texans -10
Bills @ Jets	Jets 0.1127	Jets 0.4197	Jets -3
Seahawks @ Cardinals	Seahawks 0.0755	Cardinals* 0.0534	Seahawks -2½
Cowboys @ Giants	Cowboys 0.0453	Giants* 0.1189	Giants -4
49ers @ Packers	49ers 0.0271	Packers* 0.2499	Packers -5½
Jaguars @ Vikings	Vikings 0.0131	Vikings 0.2167	Vikings -4½

Comments:

Maybe it's because I didn't watch as much preseason football this year as compared to last, but mostly what I see in these games is a lot of unanswered questions:

• Are the Giants going to take up where they left off in the playoffs, or how they played in the regular season?

• Can the Saints overcome all the offseason drama to take care of RG3 and the Redskins? (The last time the Redskins and Saints played was in 2009, and the Saints needed a 10-point comeback and overtime to secure a win.)

• Along with the Redskins and RG3, there's a lot of teams starting rookie quarterbacks. With guys like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton starting and succeeding from year one, the old conventional wisdom of letting a rookie QB sit on the bench for a year or two could be over.

• Can Peyton Manning perform as well with his new team as he did with the Colts? How well will his surgically repaired neck (not to mention his 36 year-old body) hold up to another season of hits?

• How much is it going to affect MJD to have missed the entire preseason? (Of course, given how bad the Jaguars are likely to be, it may not matter much.)

• How effective is Adrian Peterson going to be? Stories like this one sure make it sound like he's not anywhere near 100% recovered from his injury yet.

• Similarly, how effective is Brian Urlacher going to be? He's a big part of the Bears' defense, and that defense is a big part of how they win games.

• How much better is the Packers' defense going to be this year? Can they hold the 49ers offense under 350 yards? (A mark the Packers' D only made 3 times last year). Can the Packers' offense continue to shred opposing defenses like they (mostly) did last year?

The good news is, we start getting answers Wednesday night.

NFL Preseason Notes

Here's a few stats I thought were interesting on the preseason results:

The Seahawks and Eagles were undefeated. The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets went winless (and the AFC East was 1-15 as a group).

Most points scored		Fewest points scored
Seahawks	122	Jets	31
Ravens	108	Dolphins	43
Eagles	106	Patriots	55
Steelers	104	Bills	59
Lions	102	Buccaneers	60
Texans	101	Chiefs	61
Jaguars	100	Raiders	61

Most points allowed		Fewest points allowed
Bills	119	Seahawks	44
Cardinals(*)	119	49ers	53
Chiefs	116	Giants	58
Jaguars	117	Redskins	59
Bears	99	Eagles	60
Dolphins	96	Cowboys	60

(*)Through 5 games

Highest net points		Lowest net points
Seahawks	78	Bills	-60
Eagles	46	Jets	-57
Redskins	39	Chiefs	-55
49ers	37	Dolphins	-53
Steelers	33	Buccaneers	-35

Comments:

• Are the Seahawks a breakout team this year? Most points scored and fewest points allowed can't be a total coincidence. On the other hand, rookie QB Russell Wilson will almost certainly struggle when he starts to face defenses that are actually game planning for him, and not holding back on their playbook.

• It's hard to come to any conclusion except that the Jets are in big trouble going into this season. If they average 8 points a game starting next week, Rex Ryan will be fired by November.

• I wonder how much teams really hold back on what they can do in the preseason, just so it can be a "surprise" in the regular season. It seems to me this kind of tactic gets you one game (at best), and denies you opportunity to practice at full speed against a motivated opponent.

• This sort of thing is particularly unconvincing in the case of teams like the 49ers, who struggled offensively last year. If they're struggling offensively in the preseason, my first thought is not "oh, they must be holding back".

• Also, Joe Buck? Whoever told you that beard looks good on you was lying.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: Index

This is just an index post for the "25 Biggest Upsets" series. It's primarily for my own reference, but as with the season indexes, you are welcome to use it as you find it convenient.

In Upset Order

#1	1972 Redskins @ Patriots		#14	1979 Falcons @ Chargers
#2	1973 Dolphins @ Colts		#15	2009 Eagles @ Raiders
#3	2011 Saints @ Rams		#16	1976 Cowboys @ Falcons
#4	1970 Lions @ Saints		#17	2000 Broncos @ Bengals
#5	2004 Patriots @ Dolphins		#18	2011 Texans @ Colts
#6	2011 Packers @ Chiefs		#19	1997 Packers @ Colts
#7	1970 Vikings @ Jets		#20	1996 Panthers @ Falcons
#8	2009 Buccaneers @ Saints		#21	1985 Dolphins @ Oilers
#9	2011 Saints @ Buccaneers		#22	2000 Steelers @ Browns
#10	1977 Rams @ Saints		#23	2005 Saints @ Panthers
#11	2008 Cowboys @ Rams		#24	1975 Bengals @ Browns
#12	1983 Redskins @ Packers		#25	1980 Jets @ Falcons
#13	2003 Packers @ Cardinals

In Chronological Order

#4	1970 Lions @ Saints		#22	2000 Steelers @ Browns
#7	1970 Vikings @ Jets		#17	2000 Broncos @ Bengals
#1	1972 Redskins @ Patriots		#13	2003 Packers @ Cardinals
#2	1973 Dolphins @ Colts		#5	2004 Patriots @ Dolphins
#24	1975 Bengals @ Browns		#23	2005 Saints @ Panthers
#16	1976 Cowboys @ Falcons		#11	2008 Cowboys @ Rams
#10	1977 Rams @ Saints		#15	2009 Eagles @ Raiders
#14	1979 Falcons @ Chargers		#8	2009 Buccaneers @ Saints
#25	1980 Jets @ Falcons		#9	2011 Saints @ Buccaneers
#12	1983 Redskins @ Packers		#3	2011 Saints @ Rams
#21	1985 Dolphins @ Oilers		#6	2011 Packers @ Chiefs
#20	1996 Panthers @ Falcons		#18	2011 Texans @ Colts
#19	1997 Packers @ Colts

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #1

# 1: 1972 Week 3: Redskins 23, Patriots 24 (ρ=1.4479)

Redskins' season: finished 11-3, won the NFC East, lost Super Bowl VII (thus becoming the final notch in the Dolphins perfect 17-0 season).

Patriots' season: Finished 3-11. Head coach John Mazur resigned 9 games into the season.

What happened: the good news for the 1972 Patriots was, any time they held their opponent under 24 points, they won. The bad news was, they only did that 3 times. The '72 Patriots were bad on both sides of the ball, including a last-place defense (points allowed), and an offense that mostly couldn't even score 21 points.

The same rule held for the '72 Redskins: they won almost every time they held their opponent under 24 points. The difference, of course, is that the Redskins had the #4 defense (points allowed), and only 3 teams managed to get to that 24-point threshold.

Somehow, the Patriots offense managed to shred the Redskins defense, passing for 253 yards (more than any other Redskins' opponent), and scoring 24 points (a season high for the Patriots).

Also of note: the Patriots' starting quarterback in 1972 was Jim Plunkett, much better known for his late-career success with the Oakland Raiders, which included two Super Bowl victories.

That's it. Thanks for hanging around this off-season to read the series. (And if you didn't, you can certainly go back and read them now.) Coming up next: new football!

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #2

# 2: 1973 Week 13: Dolphins 3, Colts 16 (ρ=1.3806)

Dolphins' season: finished 12-2, won the AFC East, and defeated the Vikings in Super Bowl VIII.

Colts' season: finished 4-10. Head coach Howard Schnellenberger was fired 3 games into the 1974 season.

Was this really an upset? On first glance, this game has the hallmarks of a contest where the better team isn't trying. The Dolphins had lost early in the season, and so didn't have a perfect season to play for. They had already clinched the AFC East, and didn't have anything else to play for in the pre-seeding playoff era. They also played back-up quarterback Earl Morrall in place of starter Bob Griese.

But Earl Morrall wasn't just any backup—he had 9 starts in relief of the injured Bob Griese during the Dolphins perfect season of 1972. He also lead the Colts' to the 1968 NFL championshp (in relief of the injured Johnny Unitas), ultimately losing to the Jets in Super Bowl III. The Dolphins had good reason to think that Morrall could handle a weak team like the Colts.

What happened: the Dolphins' defense did their job, holding the Colts to 16 points. It wasn't the shut-out they had against the Colts in week 9, but for an offense that scored at least 17 points in all but 3 games that season, it should've been enough.

The problem was definitely with the Dolphins' offense. Earl Morrall had a 47.8% completion rate, only managed 153 yards passing and threw two interceptions. The running game wasn't able to bail things out either; the Dolphins 93 yards rushing was their lowest production of the season.

Also of note: I was ready to leave this game off the list until I found that article in the St. Petersburg Times. It just didn't sound like comments of a team playing out the season.

Next week: APR's biggest upset since 1970.