NFL Week 16 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Patriots @ Jaguars	Patriots ρ=1.5267	Patriots* δ=26.6	Patriots -14½
Browns @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.3004	Broncos δ=13.3	Broncos -14
Colts @ Chiefs	Colts ρ=1.2690	Colts* δ=7.8	Colts -6½
Redskins @ Eagles	Redskins ρ=1.2582	Redskins* δ=11.0	Redskins -4½
Titans @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.2288	Packers δ=14.0	Packers -13
Raiders @ Panthers	Panthers ρ=1.2027	Panthers δ=11.8	Panthers -9½
Falcons @ Lions	Falcons ρ=1.1954	Falcons* δ=10.0	Falcons -4
Bears @ Cardinals	Bears ρ=1.1546	Bears* δ=9.7	Bears -5½
Vikings @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.0859	Texans δ=4.9	Texans -9
Giants @ Ravens	Giants ρ=1.0794	Giants* δ=4.5	Giants -1
49ers @ Seahawks	49ers ρ=1.0518	49ers* δ=1.1	49ers -1
Bills @ Dolphins	Dolphins* ρ=1.0501	Dolphins δ=4.8	Dolphins -4
Bengals @ Steelers	Bengals ρ=1.0499	Bengals* δ=2.8	Steelers -4
Rams @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers* ρ=1.0333	Buccaneers δ=1.3	Buccaneers -3
Chargers @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0306	Chargers* δ=1.4	Jets -1
Saints @ Cowboys	Saints ρ=1.0281	Saints* δ=0.9	Cowboys -2½

Comments:

• Adrian Peterson needs 294 yards in the Vikings' final two games to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing yards record. Vick Ballard (105) and Chris Johnson (141) are the only players to rush for more than 100 yards on the Texans this season.

• The Saints are 728 yards away from breaking the '81 Colts record for most yards allowed in a season. They've only held their opponent under 364 yards one time this season, in their week 13 loss to the Falcons.

• The '81 Colts record for most points allowed in a season should remain safe for another year. The Raiders or Bills would need to allow 132 points in their final two games to surpass 533 points allowed in a season.

• The Packers are just a half-game behind the 49ers, so the #2 seed in the playoffs will remain in play as long as Green Bay keeps winning.

• Giants @ Ravens should be a telling matchup. Either way it goes, the loser of that game will be in a serious tail-spin. If the Giants lose, it will drop them to 8-7, and could be the end of their playoff hopes. The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot, but a loss would put their hold on the AFC North in jeopardy, and mean virtually no momentum going into the final game of the season.

• Bengals @ Steelers is another do-or-die matchup this week, with the Steelers needing a win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. The Bengals haven't won in Pittsburgh since 2009.

NFL Week 15 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 15 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+8)

ESPN holds the Colts steady after their "expected" 2-score loss to the Texans, while APR drops them 3 spots. APR is probably also dropping them because their wins over the Vikings and Packers are getting less weight, and all the other Colts wins are over teams with losing records.

On the bubble

Nodbody closer than the Texans (+5)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-11)

Here we go again. The Panthers are 5-9, and well out of the playoffs. On the other hand, they are 3-1 in their last 4, including a solid win over the conference-leading Atlanta Falcons. (The Panthers also get a nice indirect boost because of how the Falcons dismantled the Giants this week.)

Saints (-8)

The Saints are another team benefitting from the Falcons rise in power, along with a dominating win over the Bucs.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than the Giants (-5)

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-2)

Right:

Bengals @ Eagles
Seahawks @ Bills
Broncos @ Ravens
Redskins @ Browns
Jaguars @ Dolphins
Colts @ Texans
Chiefs @ Raiders

Wrong:

Lions @ Cardinals

The Cardinals' offense was its usual, ineffective self: 196 total net yards and an interception. But the Lions were in full-on melt-down mode: 3 interceptions and a lost fumble gave the Cardinals 4 easy touchdowns, and when the Lions didn't turn the ball over, their drives usually ended with a punt.

49ers @ Patriots

For about 40 minutes of game time, the Patriots played really poorly. They gave up 4 turnovers, and got outscored 41-6. What's astonishing is that for 20 minutes of game time, the Patriots played extraordinarily well, outscoring the 49ers 28-0, tying the game. If they had just been able to hang onto the ball, they probably would've won.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-4, SRS: 3-4, Line: 4-3)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)

Mark Sanchez threw 4 interceptions to a Titans defense that had 12 interceptions all season prior to this game. The Jets join the Dolphins as the only teams this season not to score at least 19 points on the Titans.

Packers (APR, Line) @ Bears (SRS)

I've said this before, but it's worth repeating: the Bears offense is not very good, and they struggle when they don't get scores on defense or special teams. They only had three drives go longer than 19 yards. This game wouldn't have been even this close if the Packers had taken better care of the ball.

Vikings (SRS) @ Rams (APR, Line)

Didn't the Rams used to have a defense? Adrian Peterson (212 yards on 24 runs) ran all over them, and Christian Ponder only threw incomplete 7 times. A lot of the Vikings' drives ended in field goals, but three touchdowns, including a long AP run and a pick 6 put the game out of reach.

Panthers (APR) @ Chargers (SRS, Line)

The Chargers are a really bad team. They have to fire Norv Turner now, right?

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

Eli Manning had a poor game (barely a 50% completion rate, 161 yards and 2 interceptions), but perhaps more importantly, the Giants' defense just couldn't stop the Falcons, who got 10 points off the turnovers, and had 3 drives of 69+ yards end in touchdowns, and in the process, had nearly a 2-to-1 advantage in time of possession.

Steelers (APR, Line) @ Cowboys (SRS)

It's tempting to blame this loss on Roethlisberger's health, and certainly that interception in overtime is on him. But the fact is, the Steelers have scored more than 24 points just twice all season. The real problem is their defense: they are 2-6 when they give up 20 or more points. They're also one of the worst defenses in the league at generating turnovers, and the Cowboys are 7-2 when they don't turn the ball over more than once.

Buccaneers (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)

The Buccaneers just couldn't do anything on offense in this game. Josh Freeman threw 4 interceptions and lost a fumble. They did manage to get into the red zone a couple times, but turned the ball over on downs both times, never reaching a goal-to-go situation.

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	10	-	6			128	-	79	-	1	61.8%
SRS	10	-	6			124	-	83	-	1	60.0%
Line	10	-	6			134	-	73	-	1	64.7%

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Broncos	1.0773 (LW × 1.0153)	11-3	Won by 17 @ Ravens
2 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0596 (LW × 0.9513)	10-4	Lost by 7 vs 49ers
3 (-)	49ers	1.0515 (LW × 1.0255)	10-3-1	Won by 7 @ Patriots
4 (↑1)	Seahawks	0.9997 (LW × 1.0125)	9-5	Won by 33 @ Bills
5 (↑2)	Packers	0.9843 (LW × 0.9983)	10-4	Won by 8 @ Bears
6 (↑3)	Falcons	0.9755 (LW × 1.0391)	12-2	Won by 34 vs Giants
7 (↓3)	Giants	0.9668 (LW × 0.9648)	8-6	Lost by 34 @ Falcons
8 (↓2)	Texans	0.9642 (LW × 0.9776)	12-2	Won by 12 vs Colts
9 (↑3)	Redskins	0.9387 (LW × 1.0233)	8-6	Won by 17 @ Browns
10 (↑6)	Saints	0.9267 (LW × 1.0317)	6-8	Won by 41 vs Buccaneers
11 (-)	Bengals	0.9255 (LW × 1.0046)	8-6	Won by 21 @ Eagles
12 (↑8)	Panthers	0.9029 (LW × 1.0356)	5-9	Won by 24 @ Chargers
13 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.9013 (LW × 1.0016)	8-6	Won by 3 vs Steelers
14 (↓4)	Bears	0.8978 (LW × 0.9694)	8-6	Lost by 8 vs Packers
15 (↓7)	Ravens	0.8958 (LW × 0.9508)	9-5	Lost by 17 vs Broncos
16 (↑5)	Vikings	0.8879 (LW × 1.0189)	8-6	Won by 14 @ Rams
17 (↓3)	Colts	0.8825 (LW × 0.9720)	9-5	Lost by 12 @ Texans
18 (↓5)	Steelers	0.8815 (LW × 0.9653)	7-7	Lost by 3 @ Cowboys
19 (↓2)	Buccaneers	0.8739 (LW × 0.9759)	6-8	Lost by 41 @ Saints
20 (↑3)	Dolphins	0.8515 (LW × 0.9880)	6-8	Won by 21 vs Jaguars
21 (↓3)	Rams	0.8457 (LW × 0.9560)	6-7-1	Lost by 14 vs Vikings
22 (-)	Jets	0.8415 (LW × 0.9700)	6-8	Lost by 4 @ Titans
23 (↓4)	Browns	0.8285 (LW × 0.9489)	5-9	Lost by 17 vs Redskins
24 (-)	Chargers	0.8165 (LW × 0.9490)	5-9	Lost by 24 vs Panthers
25 (-)	Lions	0.8161 (LW × 0.9503)	4-10	Lost by 28 @ Cardinals
26 (-)	Bills	0.8109 (LW × 0.9555)	5-9	Lost by 33 vs Seahawks
27 (-)	Titans	0.8011 (LW × 0.9911)	5-9	Won by 4 vs Jets
28 (↑1)	Cardinals	0.7776 (LW × 1.0271)	5-9	Won by 28 vs Lions
29 (↑1)	Raiders	0.7507 (LW × 1.0030)	4-10	Won by 15 vs Chiefs
30 (↓2)	Eagles	0.7461 (LW × 0.9771)	4-10	Lost by 21 vs Bengals
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.6955 (LW × 0.9649)	2-12	Lost by 15 @ Raiders
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6941 (LW × 0.9684)	2-12	Lost by 21 @ Dolphins

Comments:

• When the Giants are at the top of their game, they can play with anybody in the league. But boy, when they play poorly, they can really stink up the joint.

• The Redskins have the longest winning streak in the NFC (5 games), second overall only to the Broncos (9 games).

• The Seahawks are now 5-1 in their last 6, including a couple high-margin wins in their last two. But the Vikings and Bears are the only opponents they've faced in that run that still have a chance at the playoffs.

• The 49ers get a big win over one of the best teams in the league. But they also gave up the most points and yards of any game they've played this year, including a stunning stretch of 28 unanswered points. They could be in trouble if other teams can use that as a blueprint to move the ball on their defense.

• The Browns clinch their 5th straight losing season. They've only had 2 winning seasons in the 14 years since their 1999 reboot.

NFL Week 15 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Bengals @ Eagles	Bengals ρ=1.2065	Bengals* δ=8.3	Bengals -3
Jaguars @ Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.2025	Dolphins δ=9.1	Dolphins -7
Seahawks @ Bills	Seahawks ρ=1.1634	Seahawks* δ=14.4	Seahawks -5
Lions @ Cardinals	Lions ρ=1.1343	Lions* δ=4.8	Lions -6
Broncos @ Ravens	Broncos ρ=1.1264	Broncos* δ=4.6	Broncos -3
49ers @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0863	Patriots δ=3.3	Patriots -6
Colts @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.0862	Texans δ=11.7	Texans -9
Jets @ Titans	Jets ρ=1.0733	Jets* δ=5.5	Titans -1
Giants @ Falcons	Giants ρ=1.0675	Giants* δ=5.3	Falcons -1
Packers @ Bears	Packers ρ=1.0646	Bears δ=2.6	Packers -3
Redskins @ Browns	Redskins ρ=1.0507	Redskins* δ=5.5	Redskins -1
Chiefs @ Raiders	Raiders ρ=1.0385	Raiders δ=0.3	Raiders -2½
Vikings @ Rams	Rams* ρ=1.0152	Vikings* δ=1.2	Rams -2½
Steelers @ Cowboys	Steelers ρ=1.0148	Cowboys δ=1.7	Steelers -2
Panthers @ Chargers	Panthers ρ=1.0134	Chargers δ=0.4	Chargers -3
Buccaneers @ Saints	Saints* ρ=1.0031	Buccaneers* δ=4.2	Saints -3½

Comments:

• No line for Redskins @ Browns while RG3's status is up in the air. I will update when something is announced. Update: RG3 will be a game-time decision; a couple lines are saying Redskins -1, so I'm going with that.

• The Packers will clinch the NFC North with a win over the Bears. If the Packers do clinch the division, it will be the first time as back-to-back division champions since 2003-2004.

• The Colts can also clinch a playoff spot with a win, but with the Texans smarting from a prime-time embarrassment in Foxborough, that would be a pretty major upset.

• I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Broncos over the Ravens. In spite of their troubles, the Ravens are 5-1 at home. On the other hand, the Ravens are starting to show signs of fading down the stretch—they are 1-2 in their last 3, including that skin-of-their-teeth overtime win at the Chargers.

• SRS is really feeling its oats this week, with 4 rogue picks. SRS is 1-7 when picking against APR and the Line this season. (The lone success was a week 5 pick of the Dolphins over the Bengals.)

NFL Week 14 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 14 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the bubble

Nodbody closer than the Colts (+5) who needed yet another come-back win over weak sister opponent, and

The Vikings (+5) who are managing to hang around with the playoff contenders in spite of the almost total lack of a passing game.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble

APR gives the Panthers (-6) a 5-spot bump after their convincing win over the conference-leading Falcons.

ESPN has the Saints (-6) below the Jets, Browns, Dolphins, Rams, and Vikings. At least the Saints still have Drew Brees, and a reasonable hope of putting a contending team back together next year.

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-5)

Right:

Broncos @ Raiders
Jets @ Jaguars
Chiefs @ Browns
Titans @ Colts
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Saints @ Giants
Dolphins @ 49ers
Lions @ Packers
Texans @ Patriots

Wrong:

Eagles @ Buccaneers

The Eagles discovered a defense, at least for this game. This is the first time a team hasn't scored more than 21 points on the Eagles since early October (before the firing of DC Juan Castillo).

Cowboys @ Bengals

For all the hype on Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, the Bengals' offense isn't that good. They are 2-6 when they give up more than 13 points on defense. And they couldn't score 20 points on the Cowboys, who have given up at least that much in 8 games this year.

Chargers @ Steelers

The Steelers had breakdowns in pretty much all phases in this game. The offense couldn't move the ball. The defense couldn't get a stop. The punting unit couldn't flip field position. The Steelers only had one interception, but it was a doozy. Roethlisberger was intercepted deep on the Steelers' side of the field. The resulting Chargers' touchdown ended any hope of a Steeler come-back.

Falcons @ Panthers

The Falcons lack of a quick-strike offense continues to be a major vulnerability for them. Their longest first-half drive was just 31 yards. And meanwhile the Panthers had managed to score 16 points. Usually not an insurmountable lead, except when the offense can only manage two drives a quarter, and the defense gives up a couple more touchdowns.

Bears @ Vikings

After their first two touchdowns, the Vikings' day on offense: punt, punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, punt. If Cutler had not thrown those two inteceptions, the Bears win this game.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-1, SRS: 1-1, Line: 1-1)

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Redskins (Line)

The Ravens' defense has been suspect all season, and this is another prime example of why. This is the 5th game they've given up at least 28 points in regulation this season, and their offense mostly isn't able to keep up when the defense gives up that many points.

Rams (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)

When the Rams lose, it's mostly because they struggle on defense: they are 1-4-1 when they give up more than 17 points. So the Bills were in trouble when they got to the 4th quarter with just a 5-point lead. And sure enough, the Rams managed one last, late game-winning touchdown drive.

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	10	-	6			118	-	73	-	1	61.7%
SRS	10	-	6			114	-	77	-	1	60.0%
Line	10	-	6			124	-	67	-	1	64.8%