NFL Week 2 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Chiefs @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=2.2324	Broncos δ=23.0	Broncos -13
Cardinals @ Giants	Cardinals ρ=1.7426	Cardinals δ=22.0	Cardinals -2½
Jets @ Packers	Jets ρ=1.7372	Jets δ=25.0	Packers -8
Cowboys @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.6326	Titans δ=27.0	Titans -3½
Rams @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.6037	Buccaneers δ=22.0	Buccaneers -5½
Steelers @ Ravens	Steelers ρ=1.6036	Steelers δ=10.0	Ravens -2½
Bears @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.4537	49ers δ=14.0	49ers -7
Patriots @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.3151	Vikings δ=41.0	Patriots -3
Jaguars @ R*dskins	R*dskins ρ=1.3104	R*dskins δ=6.0	R*dskins -6
Eagles @ Colts	Eagles ρ=1.3074	Eagles δ=24.0	Colts -3
Texans @ Raiders	Texans ρ=1.1747	Texans δ=16.0	Texans -3
Seahawks @ Chargers	Seahawks ρ=1.1116	Seahawks δ=21.0	Seahawks -5
Falcons @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.0629	Bengals δ=4.0	Bengals -5½
Dolphins @ Bills	Dolphins ρ=1.0515	Dolphins δ=10.0	Dolphins -1
Lions @ Panthers	Panthers ρ=1.0061	Lions δ=15.0	Panthers -2½
Saints @ Browns	Browns ρ=1.0000	Browns δ=0.0	Saints -7

Comments:

• A fair amount of agreement, given just one week's worth of data as input.

• The Jets won last week and the Packers didn't, so the algorithms are picking the Jets to win this week. But the Jets will certainly find beating the Packers on the road is a lot harder than beating the Raiders at home.

• The Steelers won last week and the Ravens didn't, so again the algorithms are picking them to win. In this case, it's maybe not so out of line. I don't have a good feel yet for how good either of these teams are, but I think maybe the whole Ray Rice fiasco could push this game in favor of the Steelers, especially on a short week.

• Likewise the Vikings and Patriots. The happy times in Minnesota will have a lot stronger foundation if they can send the Pats home 0-2 this week.

• I think Bears fans gotta have a very bad feeling about going into Levi Stadium on Monday night. After the way the 49ers demolished the Cowboys last week, this could be another easy win over a struggling team for them.

• Saints @ Browns is a tie, and as such, the pick goes to the home standing Browns. I'm not totally sure this is a bad pick. The Browns took the Steelers to the wire on the road last week, and (as noted in last week's pick results) the Saints can be notoriously weak on the road.

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:

49ers @ Cowboys
Vikings @ Rams
Packers @ Seahawks
Jaguars @ Eagles
Browns @ Steelers
Colts @ Broncos
Raiders @ Jets
Giants @ Lions
Chargers @ Cardinals

Wrong:

Titans @ Chiefs

Last year, the Chiefs made it to 11 wins by playing tough defense, running the ball, and taking advantage of opportunities on special teams. In what might be an ugly preview to how this season will go, they pretty much failed to do any of these. Jake Locker threw for 266 yards and a couple touchdowns, the Titans rushed for 162 yards, and it was the Titans' defense that looked dominant, intercepting Alex Smith 3 times, and holding the Chiefs to just 67 yards rushing.

Bills @ Bears

The good news for the Bears is, they held their opponent to 20 points in regulation, something they only did twice last year. The bad news is, they only scored 20 points themselves, and couldn't keep the Bills out of field goal range in overtime. An inauspicious start for a team expected to content for the NFC North this year.

Saints @ Falcons

You know how the Saints kinda sucked on the road last year? It doesn't seem like that's changed much. The offense had their problems (including that back breaking turnover in overtime), but it's hard to get past the fact their defense gave up 34 points to a Falcons team that only made it to 34 points once last year. No matter how good your offense is, it's tough to win games when you gotta score 5 touchdowns to do it.

Patriots @ Dolphins

You know how the Patriots kinda sucked on the road last year? Yeah, same deal. The Patriots sprinted out to a 20-10 halftime lead, and then pretty much didn't do anything on either side of the ball the second half, including giving up 23 points to the Dolphins. It's gonna be a long year for the Pats if they play like that, even if it is just in road games.

Split Picks: (Pythag 2-1, Line 1-2)

Panthers (Pythag) @ Buccaneers (Line)

Looking at the boxscore for this game, I'm not seeing a lot of noticeable differences in how these two teams played. Both teams struggled offensively (unsurprising given Derek Anderson and Josh McCown were the quarterbacks on the field). Probably the key difference was Josh McCown threw a couple interceptions, and Derek Anderson did not.

Bengals (Pythag) @ Ravens (Line)

Maybe the Line picked the Ravens on their reputation (they won the Super Bowl a year and a half ago, remember?) But they weren't a very good team last year, and the Ray Rice situation had to be an ugly distraction (even before it went nuclear yesterday).

As I indicated in the power rankings, I wasn't real impressed with the Bengals' performance in this game, especially in the second half, but at least it was enough to get them a road win in the division.

R*dskins (Pythag) @ Texans (Line)

The good news for Washington is they held their opponent to 17 points, something they only did once all last year. The bad news is their offense was pretty bad, and the two times they got sustained drives going, they fumbled the ball away.

If their defense can get keep playing well, they may actually not be that far from being in contention, but you really need to hang onto the ball, and you really need to be able to sustain more than a couple drives a game.

I thought these picks seemed kind of conservative in the game picks, but an 11-5 record for Pythag, and 10-6 for the Line bear out that was not out of line.

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1	49ers	1.1448	1-0	Won by 11 @ Cowboys
2	Bengals	1.1447	1-0	Won by 7 @ Ravens
3	Texans	1.1386	1-0	Won by 11 vs R*dskins
4	Dolphins	1.1386	1-0	Won by 13 vs Patriots
5	Broncos	1.1386	1-0	Won by 7 vs Colts
6	Titans	1.0877	1-0	Won by 16 @ Chiefs
T 7	Bills	1.0828	1-0	Won by 3 @ Bears
T 7	Panthers	1.0828	1-0	Won by 6 @ Buccaneers
9	Eagles	1.0807	1-0	Won by 17 vs Jaguars
10	Seahawks	1.0774	1-0	Won by 20 vs Packers
T11	Steelers	1.0770	1-0	Won by 3 vs Browns
T11	Cardinals	1.0770	1-0	Won by 1 vs Chargers
T11	Falcons	1.0770	1-0	Won by 3 vs Saints
T11	Jets	1.0770	1-0	Won by 5 vs Raiders
15	Lions	1.0763	1-0	Won by 21 vs Giants
16	Vikings	1.0741	1-0	Won by 28 @ Rams
T17	Saints	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 3 @ Falcons
T17	Browns	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 3 @ Steelers
T17	Chargers	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 1 @ Cardinals
T17	Raiders	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 5 @ Jets
21	Colts	0.8266	0-1	Lost by 7 @ Broncos
22	R*dskins	0.8200	0-1	Lost by 11 @ Texans
23	Patriots	0.8167	0-1	Lost by 13 @ Dolphins
T24	Buccaneers	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 6 vs Panthers
T24	Bears	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 3 vs Bills
26	Ravens	0.6716	0-1	Lost by 7 vs Bengals
27	Cowboys	0.6662	0-1	Lost by 11 vs 49ers
28	Jaguars	0.6258	0-1	Lost by 17 @ Eagles
29	Packers	0.6200	0-1	Lost by 20 @ Seahawks
30	Giants	0.6180	0-1	Lost by 21 @ Lions
31	Chiefs	0.5100	0-1	Lost by 16 vs Titans
32	Rams	0.4911	0-1	Lost by 28 vs Vikings

Comments:

• As usual, don't take this too seriously. Note that winning teams are ranked 1-16, and losing teams are ranked 17-32.

• Well, the Packers managed to make things interesting for at least a little while, but the defense doesn't seem like it's any better than last year, and losing OT Bulaga was a huge blow.

  The good news is, Bulaga's injury isn't that bad, the Seahawks are probably the toughest opponent the Packers will face in the regular season, and there's lots of time to fix what's wrong.

• I'm not sure how much to read into the Vikings and Lions respective victories this week. Their opponents looked pretty overmatched. And in the Rams were playing their 3rd string QB by the second half.

• As a conference, the AFC looked pretty bad last year, and are not off to a good start this year. None of the AFC playoff teams looked dominant. The Broncos, Patriots, and Bengals all got outscored in the second halves of their respective games, and the Colts, Chargers and Cheifs all lost.

  Like I said above, there's still a lot of football left to play, but I'm not sure I'd pick any AFC team to win the Super Bowl right now.

NFL Week 1 Game Picks

Game	Pythag	Pythag RH	Line
Panthers @ Buccaneers	Panthers 0.3926	Panthers 0.1103	Buccaneers -1
Jaguars @ Eagles	Eagles 0.3904	Eagles 0.3343	Eagles -10.5
Packers @ Seahawks	Seahawks 0.3176	Seahawks 0.4397	Seahawks -5
Saints @ Falcons	Saints 0.3066	Falcons* 0.0698	Saints -2.5
Bengals @ Ravens	Bengals 0.2492	Ravens* 0.1250	Ravens -1.5
Titans @ Chiefs	Chiefs 0.2232	Chiefs 0.1512	Chiefs -4.5
49ers @ Cowboys	49ers 0.2115	49ers 0.1449	49ers -5
Patriots @ Dolphins	Patriots 0.1889	Patriots 0.1168	Patriots -4.5
Giants @ Lions	Lions 0.1809	Lions 0.3540	Lions -4
Browns @ Steelers	Steelers 0.1723	Steelers 0.3029	Steelers -6
Colts @ Broncos	Broncos 0.1403	Broncos 0.2164	Broncos -7
Vikings @ Rams	Rams 0.0926	Rams 0.2938	Rams -4
R*dskins @ Texans	R*dskins 0.0383	Texans* 0.0319	Texans -2.5
Bills @ Bears	Bears 0.0370	Bears 0.2735	Bears -6.5
Raiders @ Jets	Jets 0.0273	Jets 0.2143	Jets -4.5
Chargers @ Cardinals	Cardinals 0.0159	Cardinals 0.1990	Cardinals -3

Comments:

• So the big question (for me, anyway): can the Packers beat the Seahawks? I think they've got at least a chance, and the new emphasis on hands to the face might help. But they'll be playing with at least one backup guy on the o-line, and who knows what the defense is gonna be like.

  The Seahawks schedule looks pretty easy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get to 12 or 13 wins again. Which means winning this game might be the Packers only real chance of getting a higher playoff seed than the Seahawks.

• Cam Newton has a broken rib, which is presumably at least part of why the Bucs are favored to win. But the Bucs have a new head coach, and Josh McCown (reportedly) as their starting quarterback. Seems like a game that says "stay away".

• So, R*dskins or Texans? Both had disasterous seasons last year, and both have new head coaches. But the Texans also have Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback, now starting for his fifth team. Maybe home field tilts this the Texans' way, but I think the R*dskins have a solid chance to come away with the upset here.

• Can the Rams win without Sam Bradford? They reportedly have a pretty good defense, and Matt Cassel is not the most amazing quarterback in the league, so I think if they can stop Adrian Peterson on defense, they may not need to score a huge number of points to beat the Vikings.

• Other than that, it seems like the line is pretty much assuming things will take up more or less where they left off last year. As usual, it's gonna take a couple of games to have an idea of where things really stand.

Pythagorean projection 2013->2014

Well, the Hall of Fame preseason game is now less than two weeks away, so I suppose it's time to get the new season going on fspi. Here we go!

As usual, this isn't a prediction of how many games teams are gonna win. It's more an indication of what they might be expected to do, and to create some commentary fodder for the teams that miss the mark.

Team	Projected Wins	Note
Jaguars	3.1	New QB
Texans	4.2	New HC, QB
Redskins	4.8	New HC
Raiders	4.9	New QB
Buccaneers	5.3	New HC
Jets	5.4
Browns	5.5	New HC, QB
Giants	5.6
Falcons	5.9
Vikings	6.1	New HC, QB
Bills	6.7
Ravens	7.1
Bears	7.3
Dolphins	7.5	New OC
Titans	7.5	New HC
Rams	7.6	New DC
Packers	7.8
Cowboys	8.2
Steelers	8.2
Lions	8.5	New HC
Chargers	9.2
Eagles	9.4
Colts	9.4
Cardinals	9.5
Patriots	10.5
Saints	10.8
Chiefs	11.1
Bengals	11.1
49ers	11.5
Panthers	11.6
Broncos	11.7
Seahawks	12.8

Comments:

• If you've been following fspi for very long, you'll know it's been a while since the last time a defending Super Bowl champion won a playoff game the following year. The Seahawks seem like they could be in good shape to end that streak.

• I kinda feel like the Panthers played a little over their heads in 2013, and maybe could be looking at a fall back this year. They'll certainly need more from their offense to be a threat in the playoffs.

• I also wonder if the Chiefs can maintain their winning pace. They're not gonna be flying under anybody's radar this year, and as long as Peyton Manning stays healthy, they're gonna have a hard time winning their division.

• The Cardinals are another team that could have trouble matching last season's success, especially without Daryl Washington. Carson Palmer needs to have a better season than he had last year.

• The Lions have a new head coach, and the Vikings have a new head coach and quarterback. Unless the Bears can get a major turn around on their defense (and assuming Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy), it's tempting to pencil in the Packers as the NFC North champs for 2014.

• Certainly, if Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers should easily surpass 7.8 wins.

2014 Navigation and Index

This post is an index of posts I plan to make during the 2014 season, including the various weekly picks, pick results, and power rankings. It's primarily for my own benefit (so I can easily find stuff when I want to refer/link to it). But you're welcome to use it as and when you see fit.

As usual, new entries will be added and existing entries will be linkified as new posts are made.

Offseason, Preseason, and Historical Data Posts

• Pythagorean Projection 2013-2014

NFL 2014 Season

Week 1	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 2	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 3	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 4	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 5	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 6	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 7	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 8	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 9	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 10	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 11	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 12	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 13	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 14	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 15	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 16	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 17	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Wildcard	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Divisional	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Championship	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Super Bowl	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results

Wrapup

• APR's Biggest Upsets
• Pythagorean Projection vs. Reality

NFL Wrapup: Pythagorean projection vs. reality

One final season wrapup post, and I got it in before spring summer! (Oh, well. Given how trivial some of the stuff is that passes for news right now, maybe it makes sense to wait a while to post it. Anyway...)

As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.

Teams are sorted by the magnitude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.

This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.

Team	Actual	Proj.	Diff	Note
Bills	6	5.8	0.2
Raiders	4	4.3	-0.3
Patriots	12	12.4	-0.4
Rams	7	6.6	0.4
Lions	7	6.5	0.5
Jaguars	4	3.4	0.6
Seahawks	13	12.4	0.6
Cowboys	8	7.4	0.6
Steelers	8	8.6	-0.6
49ers	12	11.3	0.7
Broncos	13	12.3	0.7
Dolphins	8	7.1	0.9
Chargers	9	8.0	1.0
Bengals	11	9.9	1.1
Ravens	8	9.4	-1.4
Browns	4	6.2	-2.2	Injuries, QB issues
Packers	8	10.3	-2.3	Aaron Rodgers hurt
Titans	7	4.5	2.5
Jets	8	5.4	2.6	Defense shows signs of life
Bears	8	10.8	-2.8	Injuries, big drop off on defense
Saints	11	8.1	2.9	Sean Payton back
Giants	7	10.0	-3.0	Injuries
Colts	10	6.8	3.2	Andrew Luck got better
Vikings	5	8.8	-3.3	Adrian Peterson regresses back to just very good
Buccaneers	4	7.9	-3.9	HC, QB controversy
Panthers	12	7.8	4.2	Defense much better
Cardinals	10	4.8	5.2	Bruce Arians, Carson Palmer
Eagles	10	4.0	6.0	Chip Kelly, Nick Foles
Redskins	3	9.1	-6.1	RG3 not fully recovered
Falcons	4	11.0	-7.0	Injuries
Texans	2	10.1	-8.1	Injuries
Chiefs	11	2.6	8.4	Andy Reid, defense much better

Using my original category metrics, that's 16 teams reasonably close, 9 teams moderately close, 5 teams wrong, and 2 teams in the "yikes" category.

Comments:

• Sean Payton really made a remarkable difference for the Saints. At this point, he's got to have a lot of good will available in New Orleans.

• Which kinda makes me wonder just how bad the situation with Jim Harbaugh really is. The 49ers were pretty much a doormat team from 2003 to 2010. Then Harbaugh is hired, and they are immediately one of the best teams in the league, advancing to the conference championship for 3 years in a row. Based on those kinds of results, he's really gotta be some kind of a pain if they still want to get rid of him.

• I was a little surprised to see that the Titans and Jets beat their respective projections by decent margins, in spite of their struggles. Clearly they both have issues to resolve, but maybe aren't that far away from at least being in contention for a playoff spot.

• Carson Palmer didn't have the most amazing season in the world (he threw a career high 22 interceptions), but he was so much of an upgrade over what the Cardinals had last year, he's gotta have some credit for their improved record.

• Last summer, I predicted that Chip Kelly might struggle getting his offensive schemes to work in the NFL. I'm still not totally sold it's going to work long term, but I have to admit he did better in his first season that I was expecting.