NFL Week 4 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-1)

Right:

Redskins @ Rams
Saints @ Jaguars
Broncos @ Packers
Steelers @ Texans
Panthers @ Bears
Colts @ Buccaneers

Wrong:

Bills @ Bengals

Given the Bills habit of giving up big early leads, it's no surprise the they lost sooner rather than later. What is a surprise is that rookie Andy Dalton has managed to lead the Bengals to a 2-2 record, and they've been in every game right to the end.

Split Picks: (APR: 5-4, SRS 5-4, Line 4-5)

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)

Matt Hasselbeck had a 50% completion rate, but the ones he did complete made the difference: 220 yards for 3 touchdowns. It didn't hurt that Chris Johnson had his first productive day of the season (23 carries 101 yards). This is also the difference having a decent QB makes: the Titans' offense didn't disappear just because Kenny Britt wasn't available.

49ers (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

The Eagles defense is really bad. The Giants have been the only team so far not to rush for at least 138 yards against them, and every opponent has had at least 318 total yards. Michael Vick's real problem is his offense needs to score at least 28 points every game just to have a chance to win.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)

Neither one of these offenses looked very good at all (Flacco and Sanchez were both below 33% completion rate). The Ravens had the benefit of an early lead, as well as experience hunkering down to protect that lead. The Jets, on the other hand, had no answer for the Ravens' smothering defense.

Giants (Line) @ Cardinals (APR, SRS)

I've got to blame this one on the Cardinals' defense. They had a 10-point lead with 5:16 to play. One more defensive stop puts the win away. Instead, the Giants were able to drive the field twice for touchdowns, and the Cardinals' offense wasn't able to respond.

Lions (SRS) @ Cowboys (APR, Line)

In spite of the fact that I am a Packer fan, I want to give Tony Romo the benefit of the doubt. This season is making it very hard to do that. Since 1940, there have been 5 games where the winning team gave away two pick-6es (Ironically, Tony Romo's Cowboys were the last to do it). As for the Lions, a beat-down of a very bad team and two miracle come-backs don't seem that impressive for them, either.

Falcons (SRS, Line) @ Seahawks (APR)

The Falcons had a 20-point second-half lead in this game, and very nearly let it slip away, only securing the win when Seattles' last-minute field goal attemt fell short. If the Falcons' don't start playing at a much higher level, real soon, they're going to have trouble even getting to 8 wins this year.

Patriots (Line) @ Raiders (APR, SRS)

To beat the Patriots, you've got to put touchdowns on the board. The Raiders moved the ball a lot, but too many of their drives ended with field goals, punts, or interceptions. As a result, the Raiders fell behind early, and never scored without allowing the Patriots at least one intervening touchdown.

Dolphins (SRS) @ Chargers (APR, Line)

I'm not really sure why SRS liked the Dolphins here. The Chargers haven't been very impressive, but the Dolphins have been awful—they're now 0-4, and the Browns are the only team that hasn't beaten them by at least 10 points.

Vikings (SRS, Line) @ Chiefs (APR)

And speaking of awful, it's remarkable how fast the Vikings' season has spun out of control. At least in their first three games, they looked good for a half. This week, they couldn't manage even one good quarter against one of the weakest teams in the league. At this point, the Vikings have to wonder if there's anybody left on their schedule they can beat.

Totals

APR (and SRS) gain a little ground on the Line this week!

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	11-5	27-20-1	57.3%
SRS	11-5	30-17-1	63.5%
Line	10-6	34-14-0	70.8%

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.2285 (LW × 1.0065)	4-0	Won by 26 vs Broncos
2 (↑4)	Patriots	1.1495 (LW × 1.0472)	3-1	Won by 12 @ Raiders
3 (↑4)	Saints	1.1298 (LW × 1.0319)	3-1	Won by 13 @ Jaguars
4 (↓1)	Bills	1.0997 (LW × 0.9187)	3-1	Lost by 3 @ Bengals
5 (↑7)	Lions	1.0642 (LW × 1.0636)	4-0	Won by 4 @ Cowboys
6 (↑10)	Ravens	1.0451 (LW × 1.1278)	3-1	Won by 17 vs Jets
7 (↑4)	Titans	1.0384 (LW × 1.0300)	3-1	Won by 18 @ Browns
8 (↓6)	Raiders	1.0367 (LW × 0.8571)	2-2	Lost by 12 vs Patriots
9 (↓4)	Cowboys	0.9971 (LW × 0.8820)	2-2	Lost by 4 vs Lions
10 (↑3)	Bengals	0.9734 (LW × 1.0359)	2-2	Won by 3 vs Bills
11 (↓2)	49ers	0.9725 (LW × 0.9377)	3-1	Won by 1 @ Eagles
12 (↓4)	Redskins	0.9725 (LW × 0.9350)	3-1	Won by 7 @ Rams
13 (↑1)	Texans	0.9613 (LW × 1.0269)	3-1	Won by 7 vs Steelers
14 (↓4)	Broncos	0.9571 (LW × 0.9444)	1-3	Lost by 26 @ Packers
15 (↓11)	Jets	0.9570 (LW × 0.8369)	2-2	Lost by 17 @ Ravens
16 (↑2)	Bears	0.9370 (LW × 1.0288)	2-2	Won by 5 vs Panthers
17 (↑6)	Giants	0.8917 (LW × 1.0919)	3-1	Won by 4 @ Cardinals
18 (↑2)	Chargers	0.8842 (LW × 1.0346)	3-1	Won by 10 vs Dolphins
19 (-)	Panthers	0.8665 (LW × 0.9785)	1-3	Lost by 5 @ Bears
20 (↓3)	Jaguars	0.8634 (LW × 0.9383)	1-3	Lost by 13 vs Saints
21 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.8541 (LW × 1.0402)	3-1	Won by 7 vs Colts
22 (↓7)	Cardinals	0.8472 (LW × 0.9123)	1-3	Lost by 4 vs Giants
23 (↓2)	Steelers	0.8399 (LW × 1.0159)	2-2	Lost by 7 @ Texans
24 (↑4)	Falcons	0.8117 (LW × 1.0776)	2-2	Won by 2 @ Seahawks
25 (↑4)	Eagles	0.8083 (LW × 1.1076)	1-3	Lost by 1 vs 49ers
26 (↓1)	Chiefs	0.7929 (LW × 1.0312)	1-3	Won by 5 vs Vikings
27 (-)	Vikings	0.7874 (LW × 1.0381)	0-4	Lost by 5 @ Chiefs
28 (↓4)	Browns	0.7804 (LW × 0.9758)	2-2	Lost by 18 vs Titans
29 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.7500 (LW × 1.0362)	0-4	Lost by 10 @ Chargers
30 (↓4)	Seahawks	0.7334 (LW × 0.9587)	1-3	Lost by 2 vs Falcons
31 (-)	Colts	0.6871 (LW × 1.0552)	0-4	Lost by 7 @ Buccaneers
32 (-)	Rams	0.6785 (LW × 1.1372)	0-4	Lost by 7 vs Redskins

Comments:

• I'm not sure how much I believe these rankings just yet. The Bills seem like the biggest overrate: one trouncing of a very bad team and two miracle come-backs does not make a top-5 team. Given how spectacularly the Cowboys collapsed this week, they don't seem like a top-10 team either.

• The Packers' secondary looked suspect again this week. In spite of the fact that they had just two guys to cover (Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker), Kyle Orton managed to throw for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns (mostly in the first half). The good news for the Packers is, as long as they can continue to put up offense like they did on Sunday, it's not going to matter much if their defense is a little slow to get started.

• Aaron Rodgers has 1,325 yards of passing already this season. Which is good for 4th place, behind Tom Brady (1,553), Drew Brees (1,410), and Cam Newton (1,386).

• The Texans are off to a good start at 3-1. But Arian Foster ran 30 times in Sunday's win. That kind of pounding is not sustainable for very long at all.

• At the beginning of the season, with the other AFC South teams in apparent disarray, it looked like the division was the Texans to lose. But with the Titans at 3-1, Matt Hasselbeck having a late-career resurgence, and Chris Johnson getting back on track, it's starting to look like there could be some competition for the AFC South this year.

• Could the 49ers run away with the NFC West this year? They've already got a 2-game lead in the division, and 2 non-division road wins for the first time since 2006. I don't want to underestimate the ability of any of these teams to collapse down the stretch, but after 4 games, the 49ers are on their best start in nearly a decade.

NFL Week 4 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Redskins @ Rams	Redskins ρ=1.7430	Redskins* δ=27.8	Redskins -1
49ers @ Eagles	49ers ρ=1.4211	49ers* δ=18.0	Eagles -7½
Bills @ Bengals	Bills ρ=1.2738	Bills* δ=12.0	Bills -3
Colts @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.2610	Buccaneers δ=13.2	Buccaneers -10
Titans @ Browns	Titans ρ=1.2605	Titans* δ=13.1	Browns -1½
Jets @ Ravens	Jets* ρ=1.2341	Jets* δ=6.4	Ravens -3
Broncos @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.2043	Packers δ=5.9	Packers -13
Saints @ Jaguars	Saints* ρ=1.1898	Saints* δ=17.5	Saints -7½
Dolphins @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.1808	Dolphins* δ=1.8	Chargers -7½
Giants @ Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.1372	Cardinals δ=4.6	Giants -1½
Steelers @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.1323	Texans δ=15.3	Texans -4
Lions @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.1299	Lions* δ=2.0	Cowboys -1½
Patriots @ Raiders	Raiders ρ=1.1019	Raiders δ=5.4	Patriots -4
Panthers @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0284	Bears δ=3.3	Bears -7
Falcons @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0156	Falcons* δ=4.6	Falcons -4½
Vikings @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.0138	Vikings* δ=17.9	Vikings -1½

Comments:

• The Broncos are 0-4-1 against the Packers in Wisconsin (the first two meetings were played in Milwaukee).

• I'm kind of surprised the line is so tentative about picking the Redskins. Yeah, The Redskins are 1-3 in their last 4 meetings, but this is probably the best Redskins team since 2005, and the Rams show every sign of still being awful.

• Patriots @ Raiders should be an interesting matchup. Remember last year, when Peyton Hillis ran all over the Patriots defense in one of the Browns few wins? The Patriots are going to have to do a lot better against Darren McFadden this week, or things will get ugly again for the Patriots real fast.

• Somehow, the Falcons season is already on the brink. If they fall to 1-3, especially against the struggling Seahawks, there's going to be a real question about what teams they can beat, especially on the road.

• Through week 3, the Lions, 49ers, and Ravens have the league's best turnover differential at +6; the Bills are right behind at +5. The Steelers have by far the worst at -9; the Chargers and Chiefs are tied for second at -6.

• The Bears (14), Seahawks (14), and Falcons (13) have given up the most sacks so far. The Raiders (2), Bills (2), Patriots (3), and Browns (3) the fewest.

• Defensively, the Cowboys have the most sacks at 13, which suggests that it's not just Tony Romo's grittiness that's been winning them games. The Bills (2), Chiefs (3), and Jaguars (3) have the fewest sacks.

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-2)

Right:

Ravens @ Rams
Lions @ Vikings
Packers @ Bears
Steelers @ Colts
Chiefs @ Chargers
Falcons @ Buccaneers

Wrong:

Cardinals @ Seahawks

Kevin Kolb looked very much the inexperienced quarterback in this game. His passing numbers don't look awful (64% completion rate and 252 yards passing), but the Cardinals had 7 drives that ended with a punt or interception. The offense only managed to score 10 points, and the defense is nowhere near good enough to make that stick as a win, even against the lowly Seahawks.

Jets @ Raiders

The Jets defense did not have an answer for Darren McFadden (171 yards on 19 carries). The Jets' offense was (barely) keeping up until their special teams lost a muffed kickoff, giving the Raiders a short field, and shortly thereafter, a two score lead that proved more than the Jets could overcome.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-4, SRS 4-4, Line 5-3)

Dolphins (SRS) @ Browns (APR, Line)

Neither one of these teams looks especially good, but in this game, it was the Browns who were able to rise to the challenge, mounting a late clock-killing drive for the go-ahead score.

Texans (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)

This was actually a low scoring game for three quarters, with the Texans more-or-less in control, culminating with a 9-point lead early in the 4th quarter. But that's when the wheels came off for the Texans. The Saints' offense scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives, and the Texans offense just couldn't keep up.

49ers (SRS) @ Bengals (APR, Line)

This was a game of offensive futility, featuring 14 total punts, 2 lost fumbles, and 2 interceptions. The 49ers offense was marginally less futile, and managed to eke out the win.

Patriots (SRS, Line) @ Bills (APR)

Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions for the first time since 2004. I'm not convinced the Bills are especially good (coming back from an 18-point deficit twice in a row is really not a good thing, even if you are 3-0), but they are good enough to beat even the Patriots given that many extra chances at the ball.

Giants (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)

Another breakdown by the Eagles' defense, and another game that Vick couldn't finish, and Kafka couldn't save. Perhaps most surprising, the Giants' injury-depleted defense was still able to hold the Eagles to just 16 points.

Jaguars (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)

APR is still a little flakey after two weeks, so outside knowledge (like the fact that Luke McCown is a bad quarterback, and Cam Newton probably isn't) makes this pick look odd. On the other hand, the Panthers did lose to a pretty bad Cardinals team, and barely beat a really bad Jaguars team. Cam Newton has put up some pretty impressive passing statistics, but as a team, the Panthers really haven't proved much of anything yet.

Broncos (APR) @ Titans (SRS, Line)

Except for their close loss to the highly-ranked Raiders, I don't have a good explanation for why APR likes the Broncos so much. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck continues his late career resurgence, leading the Titans to another win with 311 yards passing and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Seahawks management is left to wonder "what have we done?"

Redskins (SRS) @ Cowboys (APR, Line)

For the second week in a row, the Cowboys scrape out a come-from-behind win, and APR has them in the top 5 for it. They may not be the most dominating team ever, but a couple wins over teams with winning records is more than the Falcons, Bears, and Eagles can say right now.

Totals

A much better week.

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	10-6	16-15-1	51.6%
SRS	10-6	19-12-1	60.9%
Line	11-5	24- 8-0	75.0%

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.2205 (LW × 0.9379)	3-0	Won by 10 @ Bears
2 (↑4)	Raiders	1.2096 (LW × 1.1138)	2-1	Won by 10 vs Jets
3 (-)	Bills	1.1970 (LW × 0.9979)	3-0	Won by 3 vs Patriots
4 (↓2)	Jets	1.1436 (LW × 0.9130)	2-1	Lost by 10 @ Raiders
5 (↑6)	Cowboys	1.1305 (LW × 1.0972)	2-1	Won by 2 vs Redskins
6 (↓2)	Patriots	1.0977 (LW × 0.9913)	2-1	Lost by 3 @ Bills
7 (↓2)	Saints	1.0948 (LW × 1.0070)	2-1	Won by 7 vs Texans
8 (↑4)	Redskins	1.0401 (LW × 1.0424)	2-1	Lost by 2 @ Cowboys
9 (↑10)	49ers	1.0371 (LW × 1.1992)	2-1	Won by 5 @ Bengals
10 (↓2)	Broncos	1.0135 (LW × 0.9421)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Titans
11 (↓1)	Titans	1.0082 (LW × 0.9697)	2-1	Won by 3 vs Broncos
12 (↓5)	Lions	1.0005 (LW × 0.9279)	3-0	Won by 3 @ Vikings
13 (-)	Bengals	0.9397 (LW × 0.9738)	1-2	Lost by 5 vs 49ers
14 (↑2)	Texans	0.9361 (LW × 0.9978)	2-1	Lost by 7 @ Saints
15 (↓6)	Cardinals	0.9287 (LW × 0.8670)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Seahawks
16 (↑2)	Ravens	0.9267 (LW × 1.0644)	2-1	Won by 30 @ Rams
17 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.9202 (LW × 0.9734)	1-2	Lost by 6 @ Panthers
18 (↓4)	Bears	0.9107 (LW × 0.9453)	1-2	Lost by 10 vs Packers
19 (↓2)	Panthers	0.8856 (LW × 1.0039)	1-2	Won by 6 vs Jaguars
20 (↑3)	Chargers	0.8546 (LW × 1.1445)	2-1	Won by 3 vs Chiefs
21 (↑5)	Steelers	0.8267 (LW × 1.1121)	2-1	Won by 3 @ Colts
22 (↑3)	Buccaneers	0.8211 (LW × 1.1026)	2-1	Won by 3 vs Falcons
23 (↓1)	Giants	0.8166 (LW × 1.0601)	2-1	Won by 13 @ Eagles
24 (↓4)	Browns	0.7998 (LW × 0.9407)	2-1	Won by 1 vs Dolphins
25 (↑3)	Chiefs	0.7689 (LW × 1.1057)	0-3	Lost by 3 @ Chargers
26 (↑6)	Seahawks	0.7650 (LW × 1.3582)	1-2	Won by 3 vs Cardinals
27 (↓3)	Vikings	0.7585 (LW × 1.0164)	0-3	Lost by 3 vs Lions
28 (↓1)	Falcons	0.7532 (LW × 1.0141)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Buccaneers
29 (↓8)	Eagles	0.7298 (LW × 0.8805)	1-2	Lost by 13 vs Giants
30 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.7238 (LW × 1.1424)	0-3	Lost by 1 @ Browns
31 (↓1)	Colts	0.6512 (LW × 1.0945)	0-3	Lost by 3 vs Steelers
32 (↓1)	Rams	0.5967 (LW × 1.0562)	0-3	Lost by 30 vs Ravens

Comments:

• Big movers: the 49ers (↑10) and Eagles (↓8) are the only teams that moved more than 6 spots. Things are settling down, though I'm not sure how much I trust some of the rankings yet...

• The Packers, Lions, and Bills are the only teams left undefeated after 3 weeks of play.

• So, thanks to torrential rain, the Panthers barely cover their 3½ line. And the Chargers, who don't have any weather issues, barely managed to beat the hapless Chiefs, and didn't come anywhere near covering their 15 point line. More evidence that I should just never say anything about the size of the point spreads.

• The Raiders and Bills both add a statement win to their resume this week. How long they can keep things going is an open question, but as long as they keep winning, APR will keep them ranked high.

• The Broncos are benefiting from a couple 3-point losses to two highly ranked 2-1 teams (the Raiders and Titans). But unless the Packers overlook them, they should fall out of the top 10 and maybe out of the top 15 next week.

• The good news for the Bears is, they only allowed 3 sacks in Sunday's game, half of last week's total. The bad news is, 3 sacks a game is still way too many if they want Jay Cutler to stay healthy the whole season.

• The Steelers' victory Sunday night is one of their least impressive in recent memory. More turnovers and just barely beating a very bad Colts team on a last-second field goal doesn't bode well at all for another playoff run.

• The Rams are a really bad team. Even well into garbage time, their offense only managed one drive longer than 33 yards, and the Raven's were able to drive on their defense pretty much at will.

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Packers	1.2205 (LW × 0.9379)	3-0	Won by 10 @ Bears
2 (↑4)	Raiders	1.2096 (LW × 1.1138)	2-1	Won by 10 vs Jets
3 (-)	Bills	1.1970 (LW × 0.9979)	3-0	Won by 3 vs Patriots
4 (↓2)	Jets	1.1436 (LW × 0.9130)	2-1	Lost by 10 @ Raiders
5 (↑6)	Cowboys	1.1305 (LW × 1.0972)	2-1	Won by 2 vs Redskins
6 (↓2)	Patriots	1.0977 (LW × 0.9913)	2-1	Lost by 3 @ Bills
7 (↓2)	Saints	1.0948 (LW × 1.0070)	2-1	Won by 7 vs Texans
8 (↑4)	Redskins	1.0401 (LW × 1.0424)	2-1	Lost by 2 @ Cowboys
9 (↑10)	49ers	1.0371 (LW × 1.1992)	2-1	Won by 5 @ Bengals
10 (↓2)	Broncos	1.0135 (LW × 0.9421)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Titans
11 (↓1)	Titans	1.0082 (LW × 0.9697)	2-1	Won by 3 vs Broncos
12 (↓5)	Lions	1.0005 (LW × 0.9279)	3-0	Won by 3 @ Vikings
13 (-)	Bengals	0.9397 (LW × 0.9738)	1-2	Lost by 5 vs 49ers
14 (↑2)	Texans	0.9361 (LW × 0.9978)	2-1	Lost by 7 @ Saints
15 (↓6)	Cardinals	0.9287 (LW × 0.8670)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Seahawks
16 (↑2)	Ravens	0.9267 (LW × 1.0644)	2-1	Won by 30 @ Rams
17 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.9202 (LW × 0.9734)	1-2	Lost by 6 @ Panthers
18 (↓4)	Bears	0.9107 (LW × 0.9453)	1-2	Lost by 10 vs Packers
19 (↓2)	Panthers	0.8856 (LW × 1.0039)	1-2	Won by 6 vs Jaguars
20 (↑3)	Chargers	0.8546 (LW × 1.1445)	2-1	Won by 3 vs Chiefs
21 (↑5)	Steelers	0.8267 (LW × 1.1121)	2-1	Won by 3 @ Colts
22 (↑3)	Buccaneers	0.8211 (LW × 1.1026)	2-1	Won by 3 vs Falcons
23 (↓1)	Giants	0.8166 (LW × 1.0601)	2-1	Won by 13 @ Eagles
24 (↓4)	Browns	0.7998 (LW × 0.9407)	2-1	Won by 1 vs Dolphins
25 (↑3)	Chiefs	0.7689 (LW × 1.1057)	0-3	Lost by 3 @ Chargers
26 (↑6)	Seahawks	0.7650 (LW × 1.3582)	1-2	Won by 3 vs Cardinals
27 (↓3)	Vikings	0.7585 (LW × 1.0164)	0-3	Lost by 3 vs Lions
28 (↓1)	Falcons	0.7532 (LW × 1.0141)	1-2	Lost by 3 @ Buccaneers
29 (↓8)	Eagles	0.7298 (LW × 0.8805)	1-2	Lost by 13 vs Giants
30 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.7238 (LW × 1.1424)	0-3	Lost by 1 @ Browns
31 (↓1)	Colts	0.6512 (LW × 1.0945)	0-3	Lost by 3 vs Steelers
32 (↓1)	Rams	0.5967 (LW × 1.0562)	0-3	Lost by 30 vs Ravens

Comments:

• The Packers, Lions, and Bills are the only teams left undefeated after 3 weeks of play.

• So, thanks to torrential rain, the Panthers barely cover their 3½ line. And the Chargers, who don't have any weather issues, barely managed to beat the hapless Chiefs, and didn't come anywhere near covering their 15 point line. More evidence that I should just never say anything about the size of the point spreads.

• The Raiders and Bills both add a statement win to their resume this week. How long they can keep things going is an open question, but as long as they keep winning, APR will keep them ranked high.

• The Broncos are benefiting from a couple 3-point losses to two highly ranked 2-1 teams (the Raiders and Titans). But unless the Packers overlook them, they should fall out of the top 10 and maybe out of the top 15 next week.

• The good news for the Bears is, they only allowed 3 sacks in Sunday's game, half of last week's total. The bad news is, 3 sacks a game is still way too many if they want Jay Cutler to stay healthy the whole season.

• The Steelers' victory Sunday night is one of their least impressive in recent memory. More turnovers and just barely beating a very bad Colts team on a last-second field goal doesn't bode well at all for another playoff run.

• The Rams are a really bad team. Even well into garbage time, their offense only managed one drive longer than 33 yards, and the Raven's were able to drive on their defense pretty much at will.

NFL Week 3 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Cardinals @ Seahawks	Cardinals ρ=1.9018	Cardinals δ=42.8	Cardinals -3½
Ravens @ Rams	Ravens ρ=1.5412	Ravens* δ=28.1	Ravens -3½
Lions @ Vikings	Lions ρ=1.4449	Lions δ=15.2	Lions -3½
Packers @ Bears	Packers ρ=1.3509	Packers* δ=15.4	Packers -3½
Dolphins @ Browns	Browns ρ=1.3421	Dolphins δ=1.0	Browns -2½
Steelers @ Colts	Steelers ρ=1.2495	Steelers* δ=10.6	Steelers -11
Texans @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.1588	Texans* δ=3.5	Saints -4
Jets @ Raiders	Jets ρ=1.1534	Jets δ=25.5	Jets -3½
49ers @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.1158	49ers δ=3.9	Bengals -2½
Patriots @ Bills	Bills ρ=1.0832	Patriots δ=10.1	Patriots -9
Giants @ Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.0759	Giants δ=1.1	Eagles -7
Chiefs @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.0737	Chargers δ=34.1	Chargers -15
Jaguars @ Panthers	Jaguars* ρ=1.0716	Panthers δ=6.5	Panthers -3½
Broncos @ Titans	Broncos ρ=1.0346	Titans δ=5.1	Titans -7
Redskins @ Cowboys	Cowboys ρ=1.0326	Redskins δ=0.6	Cowboys -5
Falcons @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.0026	Buccaneers δ=11.4	Buccaneers -1½

Comments:

• Like the Ravens, the Bears have had 7½ months to stew over a late-round playoff loss to a division rival. Unlike the Ravens, the Bears have the added sting of a home loss, and the knowledge that a loss this week will put them a long ways back from the division lead. This will be a hard-fought game.

• I wonder how much NBC wants a do-over for the two early-season Colts games they picked for Sunday Night Football.

• The 49ers have won just 4 non-division road games since 2002. This week's game at the Bengals is probably the 49ers best chance to add to that total this year, and an early sign as to whether the Cardinals will have a challenger for the NFC West this year.

• Bucs -1½ is line-speak for "we have no idea how this game is going to go". Last year, the Falcons swept the Bucs, but both games were close. The Falcons seemed to have dropped off from last year, so yeah, this could be a game that turns on the outcome of one play, one bounce of the ball.

• Can the Chiefs even come close to holding the Chargers to a 15 point margin of victory? They haven't shown much ability to slow down or keep up with their opponents so far. I don't see any reason that will be different this week.

• Unsurprisingly, the Panthers are favored to win for the first time. Especially after the way the Jaguars got blown out by the Jets, this feels like another "give the points" game.

• I should say, by way of disclaimer, that my record of picking games against the line is horrible, and if you actually bet money on a game, you must do so on your own responsibility.