NFL: Week 2 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑3)	Chiefs	1.2886 (LW × 1.1318)	2-0	Won by 2 @ Browns
2 (↓1)	Packers	1.2336 (LW × 1.0776)	2-0	Won by 27 vs Bills
3 (↑7)	Steelers	1.2089 (LW × 1.1225)	2-0	Won by 8 @ Titans
4 (↑13)	Falcons	1.1330 (LW × 1.1689)	1-1	Won by 34 vs Cardinals
5 (↓3)	Texans	1.1284 (LW × 0.9910)	2-0	Won by 3 @ Redskins
6 (↑16)	Chargers	1.1149 (LW × 1.3487)	1-1	Won by 25 vs Jaguars
7 (-)	Dolphins	1.0440 (LW × 0.9642)	2-0	Won by 4 @ Vikings
8 (↑2)	Buccaneers	1.0214 (LW × 0.9484)	2-0	Won by 13 @ Panthers
9 (↑1)	Bears	0.9835 (LW × 0.9132)	2-0	Won by 7 @ Cowboys
10 (↑14)	Colts	0.9732 (LW × 1.1845)	1-1	Won by 24 vs Giants
11 (↓7)	Jaguars	0.9693 (LW × 0.8513)	1-1	Lost by 25 @ Chargers
12 (↑5)	Browns	0.9679 (LW × 0.9985)	0-2	Lost by 2 vs Chiefs
13 (↓6)	Ravens	0.9538 (LW × 0.8809)	1-1	Lost by 5 @ Bengals
14 (↑12)	Jets	0.9451 (LW × 1.2001)	1-1	Won by 14 vs Patriots
15 (-)	Titans	0.9396 (LW × 0.8767)	1-1	Lost by 8 vs Steelers
16 (↑13)	Eagles	0.9359 (LW × 1.3935)	1-1	Won by 3 @ Lions
17 (↓7)	Redskins	0.9024 (LW × 0.8379)	1-1	Lost by 3 vs Texans
18 (↓1)	Lions	0.8946 (LW × 0.9230)	0-2	Lost by 3 vs Eagles
19 (↓13)	Patriots	0.8884 (LW × 0.8196)	1-1	Lost by 14 @ Jets
20 (↑2)	Broncos	0.8645 (LW × 1.0458)	1-1	Won by 17 vs Seahawks
21 (↓11)	Saints	0.8487 (LW × 0.7880)	2-0	Won by 3 @ 49ers
22 (↓15)	Cardinals	0.8264 (LW × 0.7631)	1-1	Lost by 34 @ Falcons
23 (↑3)	Bills	0.8197 (LW × 1.0408)	0-2	Lost by 27 @ Packers
24 (↓7)	Cowboys	0.8113 (LW × 0.8370)	0-2	Lost by 7 vs Bears
25 (↓22)	Giants	0.8071 (LW × 0.7088)	1-1	Lost by 24 @ Colts
26 (↑4)	Bengals	0.8067 (LW × 1.2772)	1-1	Won by 5 vs Ravens
27 (↓10)	Vikings	0.7724 (LW × 0.7968)	0-2	Lost by 4 vs Dolphins
28 (↓13)	Seahawks	0.7709 (LW × 0.7193)	1-1	Lost by 17 @ Broncos
29 (↑2)	Raiders	0.7219 (LW × 1.1830)	1-1	Won by 2 vs Rams
30 (↓4)	Rams	0.7053 (LW × 0.8957)	0-2	Lost by 2 @ Raiders
31 (↓6)	Panthers	0.6847 (LW × 0.8384)	0-2	Lost by 13 vs Buccaneers
32 (↓1)	49ers	0.5999 (LW × 0.9831)	0-2	Lost by 3 vs Saints

Comments:

• Chiefs at #1? Well, they are 2-0, which is about all APR sees right now. And helped by the Chargers win today.

• And the 2-0 Saints drop to #21! Well, close wins over a couple 0-2 opponents doesn't look very good (especially squeaking out a last-second 3-point win on the 49ers, after they got pasted 6-31 last week).

• And the 0-2 Browns at #12... but they do have close wins against a couple 2-0 opponents. That's how this is supposed to work. But wow, this has been a wacky couple weeks of football.

• No surprise, all the big movers are 1-1 teams: Giants (22), Chargers (16), Cardinals (14), Seahawks, Falcons, Eagles, Patriots (13).

• Pick results coming sometime Tuesday, followed by picks for next week.

NFL: Week 2 Game Picks

All line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Saints @ 49ers	Saints ρ=1.7648	Saints δ=30	Saints -5
Ravens @ Bengals	Ravens ρ=1.7144	Ravens δ=15	Ravens -1½
Bills @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.4536	Packers δ=12	Packers -13½
Eagles @ Lions	Lions ρ=1.4433	Lions δ=2	Eagles -4½
Giants @ Colts	Giants ρ=1.3858	Giants δ=23	Colts -5½
Jaguars @ Chargers	Jaguars ρ=1.3774	Jaguars δ=14	Chargers -8½
Patriots @ Jets	Patriots ρ=1.3764	Patriots δ=15	Patriots -2
Buccaneers @ Panthers	Buccaneers ρ=1.3187	Buccaneers δ=16	Panthers -3
Seahawks @ Broncos	Seahawks ρ=1.2966	Seahawks δ=32	Broncos -3½
Rams @ Raiders	Rams ρ=1.2905	Rams δ=21	Raiders -3½
Chiefs @ Browns	Chiefs ρ=1.1746	Chiefs δ=10	Browns -2
Dolphins @ Vikings	Dolphins ρ=1.1171	Dolphins δ=10	Vikings -5½
Cardinals @ Falcons	Cardinals ρ=1.1171	Cardinals δ=10	Falcons -6½
Bears @ Cowboys	Bears ρ=1.1111	Bears δ=11	Cowboys -8½
Texans @ Redskins	Texans ρ=1.0572	Texans δ=4	Texans -3
Steelers @ Titans	Steelers ρ=1.0049	Titans δ=19	Titans -5

Comments:

• Picks are based on the Week 1 power rankings.

• All 1-0 teams are ranked above all 0-1 teams, so there are some... odd picks, like the Dolphins over the Vikings.

• APR and SRS are agreed on all games except Steelers @ Titans.

• After the way the 49ers got clobbered on Sunday, I'm really surprised the Saints are only favored by 5.

• On the other hand, it says something about how bad the Bills looked that even after the Packers lost Ryan Grant, they're still favored by 13½.

NFL: Week 1 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (5-3)

Right

Cardinals @ Rams
Raiders @ Titans
Lions @ Bears
Bengals @ Patriots
Packers @ Eagles

Wrong

Colts @ Texans

The Colts won't win many games this year if they can't stop the run. The Texans' Arian Foster had 231 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns against the Colts' alleged run defense.

Cowboys @ Redskins

This game was just a disaster for the Cowboys. Offensive futility, 10 penalties, a fumble lost for a touchdown, and the game winning touchdown called back on a holding call.

Chargers @ Chiefs

Matt Cassel was 10/22, 68 yards, and a touchdown. The Chargers outgained the Chiefs nearly 2-to-1. They win this game easily, except for three disasterous plays: a run that broke 56 yards for a touchdown, a fumble return that set up a short drive for a second touchdown, and a 94-yard punt return for a third. The Chargers managed to drive well within field goal range at the end of the game, so they likely could have escaped with a 3-point win if they could have stopped even one of these plays.

Split (std: 2-6 RH: 5-3 Line: 5-3)

49ers (std, Line) @ Seahawks (RH)

The Seahawks were so awful last season, it's hard to believe they've made dramatic improvements already. But somehow the Seahawks looked like the defensive-minded team ready to contend for the division.

Broncos (std, RH) @ Jaguars (Line)

You've got to put this one on the Broncos defense. Last year, the Broncos (and the Jaguars, for that matter) only made it to 24 points in 6 games.

Dolphins (std, Line) @ Bills (RH)

Last year, the Dolphins struggled on the road, including a 14-31 loss at Buffalo. They probably would've lost again this year, except the Bills' offense managed exactly one drive longer than 27 yards.

Panthers (std) @ Giants (RH, Line)

Matt Moore had an absolutely miserable day as the Panthers' QB: 14/33, 182 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions. It's a wonder that they managed 18 points, and actually lead at half time.

Browns (std, RH) @ Bucs (Line)

Jake Delhomme's troubles seem to have followed him to Cleveland: 2 interceptions and a 54% completion rate is going to make it tough to beat anyone.

Falcons (Line) @ Steelers (std, RH)

No QB controversy in Pittsburgh. The defense and running game manage to pull out a win.

Ravens (std) @ Jets (RH, Line)

Maybe the Jets will do better against lesser defenses, but they looked really sloppy in this game. Sanchez had a 41.7% completion rate, and the running game just wasn't there to take up the slack.

Vikings (std) @ Saints (RH, Line)

The Vikings are another team that are in real trouble if their offense can't get going. They only had two drives longer than 34 yards, which is stunning for a sqaud that had 4 drives of 70 yards or more against the Saints defense last year in the Championship Game.

Totals

Pythagorean (std)	7	9
Pythagorean (R/H)	10	6
Line	10	6

A nice confirmation of the R/H split idea. This also agrees with runs that I've done on previous seasons, which suggests that the R/H variation averages a couple picks better than the standard version.

NFL: Week 1 Power Rankings

Update: just noticed that the Chargers and Chiefs were missing out of the rankings. Fixed.

This is using a revamped power ranking system, which means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted in 2008 or 2009. More details later this week.

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1	Packers	1.1447	1-0	Won by 7 @ Eagles
2	Texans	1.1386	1-0	Won by 10 vs Colts
3	Giants	1.1386	1-0	Won by 13 vs Panthers
T 4	Jaguars	1.1386	1-0	Won by 7 vs Broncos
T 4	Chiefs	1.1386	1-0	Won by 7 vs Chargers
6	Patriots	1.0839	1-0	Won by 14 vs Bengals
T 7	Cardinals	1.0828	1-0	Won by 4 @ Rams
T 7	Ravens	1.0828	1-0	Won by 1 @ Jets
T 7	Dolphins	1.0828	1-0	Won by 5 @ Bills
T10	Saints	1.0770	1-0	Won by 5 vs Vikings
T10	Steelers	1.0770	1-0	Won by 6 vs Falcons
T10	Buccaneers	1.0770	1-0	Won by 3 vs Browns
T10	Bears	1.0770	1-0	Won by 5 vs Lions
T10	Redskins	1.0770	1-0	Won by 6 vs Cowboys
T15	Titans	1.0718	1-0	Won by 25 vs Raiders
T15	Seahawks	1.0718	1-0	Won by 25 vs 49ers
T17	Falcons	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 6 @ Steelers
T17	Browns	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 3 @ Buccaneers
T17	Lions	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 5 @ Bears
T17	Vikings	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 5 @ Saints
T17	Cowboys	0.9693	0-1	Lost by 6 @ Redskins
T22	Chargers	0.8266	0-1	Lost by 7 @ Chiefs
T22	Broncos	0.8266	0-1	Lost by 7 @ Jaguars
24	Colts	0.8217	0-1	Lost by 10 @ Texans
25	Panthers	0.8167	0-1	Lost by 13 @ Giants
T26	Jets	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 1 vs Ravens
T26	Bills	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 5 vs Dolphins
T26	Rams	0.7875	0-1	Lost by 4 vs Cardinals
29	Eagles	0.6716	0-1	Lost by 7 vs Packers
30	Bengals	0.6316	0-1	Lost by 14 @ Patriots
T31	49ers	0.6102	0-1	Lost by 25 @ Seahawks
T31	Raiders	0.6102	0-1	Lost by 25 @ Titans

Comments:

• As usual, these ranks are based on a the result of single week's worth of games, so don't read too much into it.

• Also as usual, all 1-0 teams are ranked above all 0-1 teams, and a number of ties in the rankings.

• I'm going to try a different style of posting from last year. This year, the power rankings will go up right after the last game of the week goes final (as near as I can manage), with the Pick Results following Tuesday.

NFL Week 1 Picks

Hey, kids—it's time for week 1 picks!

Like last year, week 1 picks will be based on Pythagorean Projection. As usual, picks are sorted by the confidence factor of the left-most column, from highest to lowest.

• Pythag (std): these picks are based on the standard Pythagorean Projection. The confidence numbers are just the differences of the projection values for each team.

• Pythag (R/H): these picks are based on a variation of the Pythagorean Projection. Two projections are created for each team, splitting teams based on road games and home games. Here, the road projection of the road team is compared to the home projection of the home team.

• The untitiled column with the asterisks indicate where the standard and R/H projections differ.

• Line: as usual, line values are taken from yahoo, and are used for comparison purposes only.

Game	Pythag (std)	Pythag (R/H)		Line
Cardinals @ Rams	Cardinals (0.4809)	Cardinals (0.5777)		Cardinals -4
Chargers @ Chiefs	Chargers (0.4004)	Chargers (0.5264)		Chargers -5
Cowboys @ Redskins	Cowboys (0.3399)	Cowboys (0.3062)		Cowboys -3½
49ers @ Seahawks	49ers (0.2809)	Seahawks (0.1561)	*	49ers -3
Raiders @ Titans	Titans (0.2503)	Titans (0.4226)		Titans -6½
Lions @ Bears	Bears (0.2376)	Bears (0.5137)		Bears -6
Bengals @ Patriots	Patriots (0.1949)	Patriots (0.5475)		Patriots -4
Broncos @ Jaguars	Broncos (0.1585)	Broncos (0.0256)		Jaguars -2½
Packers @ Eagles	Packers (0.1000)	Packers (0.0851)		Packers -3
Dolphins @ Bills	Dolphins (0.0879)	Bills (0.1129)	*	Dolphins -3
Colts @ Texans	Colts (0.0830)	Colts (0.1400)		Colts -2½
Panthers @ Giants	Panthers (0.0490)	Giants (0.0202)	*	Giants -7
Browns @ Buccaneers	Browns (0.0306)	Browns (0.0751)		Buccaneers -3
Falcons @ Steelers	Steelers (0.0097)	Steelers (0.1108)		Falcons -2½
Ravens @ Jets	Ravens (0.0076)	Jets (0.2208)	*	Jets -2½
Vikings @ Saints	Vikings (0.0034)	Saints (0.1562)	*	Saints -4½

Comments:

• I will update with the lines for the two Monday Night games as soon as I see them up. Update: done.

• The 49ers went just 2-6 on the road last year. One of those 6 losses was at the Seahawks. They may be the favorite to win the NFC West, but this is a game the 49ers need to win if that is to mean anything more than a one-and-done appearance on Wildcard Weekend.

• Last year, the Vikings faded a bit towards the end of the season, going 0-3 in prime time road games (at least two of which should have been reasonably easy wins).

• The Saints had their late-season troubles too, finishing 0-3 while the #1 seed was still open. They also didn't really look that good in the NFC Championship Game—the only reason they were in it at the end is because the Vikings kept turning the ball over to them.

NFL: Preseason Points

It's tough to make predictions based on preseason results in the NFL, but I was looking at the stats for total points scored, and saw some interesting results. A more careful analysis would break down points scored based on whether or not the first teams were in, but I'll leave that for someone else.

Points For

Rank	Team	PF
1	Packers	123
2	Saints	122
3	Bengals	112
4	Bills	111
⋮	⋮	⋮
29	Jets	57
30	Falcons	55
31	Bears	46
32	Panthers	33

Comments

• The Packers and Saints are right back to their high-scoring ways

• Perhaps the Bengals' biggest problems last season was an inability to score points. Maybe they've finally got that fixed?

• It doesn't bode well for teams (like the Jets and Bears) that have high expectations for the season that they scored so few points in the preseason.

• The Panthers scored just 2 touchdowns in the preseason (every other team scored at least 5). There is some good news for them, though, seen below.

Points Against

Rank	Team	PA
T1	Ravens	52
T1	Panthers	52
3	Falcons	57
T4	Cardinals, Vikings	59
⋮	⋮	⋮
28	Broncos	106
30	Bills	111
31	Bengals	112
32	Colts	160

Comments

• Lost in the attention given their QB controversy, the Cardinals had a very good preseason on defense.

• The Panthers had a very good preseason on defense too. But unless their offense gets going, they will likely still struggle to make it to 8 wins this year.

• Bad news for the Bengals: getting the offense going isn't going to help if the defense suddenly becomes a revolving door.

• The Colts defense really got smoked in the preseason (though not all of those 160 points is their fault, the special teams were giving up touchdowns too).

Net Points

Rank	Team	Net Pts
1	Vikings	34
2	Ravens	33
3	49ers	32
4	Packers	31
⋮	⋮	⋮
29	Seahawks	-15
30	Panthers	-19
31	Bears	-38
32	Colts	-70

• Some of the usual suspects at the top of the list. The Ravens and 49ers have to be the early favorites to win their respective divisions, I think.

• I posted this a few times elsewhere, but it's worth repeating: if the Bears are mastering a Martz-style offense, they kept it well hidden in the preseason.

NFL: Pythagorean Projection 2009->2010

Preseason football is just a few weeks away now, so it's time to start getting ramped up for the 2010 season. With that in mind, here are the Pythagorean Projections for the 2010 season.

FYI: Details of how Pythagorean Projection works, 2008->2009 Projections, 2008->2009 Projection vs Reality

Team	Projected Wins	Comment
Rams	1.6	New QB
Raiders	2.8	New QB
Lions	2.9
Buccaneers	3.8
Browns	4.3	New QB
Chiefs	4.7
Seahawks	5.0	New HC
Jaguars	5.5
Bills	5.8	New QB?
Redskins	5.8	New QB, HC
Bears	6.7	New OC
Titans	6.8
Dolphins	7.2	New QB?
Giants	7.4
Broncos	8.1	QB Issues
Panthers	8.2	New QB
Bengals	8.4
Falcons	9.0
Steelers	9.2	QB Issues
Cardinals	9.3	New QB
Texans	9.4
49ers	9.5
Eagles	10.2	New QB
Colts	10.8
Chargers	11.1
Cowboys	11.3
Jets	11.4	Lots of FA acquisitions
Saints	11.5
Ravens	11.5
Patriots	11.5
Vikings	11.6
Packers	11.8

Comments:

• The Rams scored the fewest total points (175) in the league last year, and fell 69 points short of the team with 3rd fewest total points (Buccaneers, 244).

  The good news for rookie QB Sam Brafford is all he has to do to beat that is average 11 points per game. The bad news is the Rams also allowed the 2nd most total points (436), surpassed only by the Lions (494).

• If Ndamukong Suh can be productive for the Lions right away, if Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson can stay healthy the whole season... I think the Lions have a real shot at 6 or more wins this season, even if nothing else improves.

• The Bills and Dolphins both had QB problems last season. It would be a major improvement for both teams if they could each get through the whole season with just one guy starting at QB.

• I think the Bears could be in real trouble. They don't have anything like the offensive players Martz had in St. Louis back in the day (Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Tory Holt, Isaac Bruce). And with the Lions making some big off-season improvements, and the Packers and Vikings both coming back for more, the Bears could very easily get caught short in what could be one of the most competitive divisions of the 2010 season.

• Besides their QB issues, the Steelers really need Troy Polomalu to stay healthy for 16 games.

• Can the Patriots get to 11 or 12 wins? That seems like a lot for a team that only had 2 road wins in 2009.