NFL Week 1 Picks

Hey, everybody, it's time for another season of football! As usual for week 1, the picks are based on each team's Pythagorean Projection values. Picks using APR and SRS will start up in week 2.

Game	Pythag (std)	Pythag (R/H)		Line
Patriots @ Bills	Patriots (0.4100)	Patriots (0.3120)		Patriots -7½
Eagles @ Redskins	Redskins (0.3176)	Redskins (0.3983)		Redskins -3½
Seahawks @ Panthers	Seahawks (0.2840)	Seahawks (0.1979)		Seahawks -3
Titans @ Steelers	Steelers (0.2392)	Steelers (0.4113)		Steelers -7
Ravens @ Broncos	Broncos (0.1843)	Broncos (0.4154)		Broncos -9
Raiders @ Colts	Colts (0.1842)	Colts (0.4409)		Colts -9½
Falcons @ Saints	Falcons (0.1808)	Falcons (0.0740)		Saints -3
Giants @ Cowboys	Giants (0.1645)	Cowboys (0.0244)	*	Cowboys -3
Buccaneers @ Jets	Buccaneers (0.1570)	Buccaneers (0.1094)		Buccaneers -3
Vikings @ Lions	Vikings (0.1447)	Vikings (0.0190)		Lions -4½
Texans @ Chargers	Texans (0.1322)	Texans (0.1266)		Texans -3½
Cardinals @ Rams	Rams (0.1104)	Rams (0.1971)		Rams -5
Packers @ 49ers	49ers (0.0625)	49ers (0.2857)		49ers -4½
Dolphins @ Browns	Dolphins (0.0584)	Browns (0.1912)	*	Browns -1
Bengals @ Bears	Bears (0.0556)	Bears (0.0468)		Bears -3
Chiefs @ Jaguars	Jaguars (0.0519)	Jaguars (0.0266)		Chiefs -3½

Comments:

• The Browns are favored to win?! There was no line for this game for quite a while. I don't really know why, and I'm not sure I belive it yet. I will check on this one later in the week. Update: well, it's Saturday afternoon, and the sports books (the ones that aren't saying pick 'em, anyway) are saying Browns -1½. So Browns it is.

• The Bills' quarterback woes continue. Erstwhile starter Ryan Fitzpatrick has gone to the Titans, which means the Bills have a choice between their injured first-round pick E.J. Manuel and undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel. The Pats should easily cover 7½ points, unless maybe Tom Brady throws 4 interceptions again. And maybe, even then.

• This is one of those can't-let-it-slip-away road games that I was talking about for the Seahawks. They're probably not going to have an easier road opponent all season.

• Man, Mile High is gonna be rocking Thursday night. The Broncos don't have any reason to show mercy, so this game has the potential to get very, very ugly for the Ravens.

• I'm a little surprised the Line is favoring the Lions over the Vikings. The Vikings swept this series last year, and with the addition of Greg Jennings to help Ponder's passing game, they could be even more of a threat this year. It won't be good news for the Vikings' playoff hopes if they lose this game.

• Last year, the Cardinals defense and special teams kept them in a lot of games, including last year's Cardinals @ Rams match-up. If the defense and special teams can take up where they left off, and if Carson Palmer can rise at least to the level of game manager, this is a game the Cardinals could win. A couple big "ifs", so this game will likely be an early indication of how the Cardinals' season will go.

• The way the Packers' last visit to the 49ers went, I think it'll be fairly impressive if the Packers are within one score at the end of the game.

  The Packers had a profoundly unimpressive preseason, largely due to their awful slate of backup quarterbacks. But the defense didn't look that great either, and just like in their playoff matchup last January, the Packers' defense will have to step up for them to have a chance to win.

So. Who's not going to win the Super Bowl this year?

This is the time of the year where, among other things, people try to make predictions about what teams are going to the Super Bowl next February. Something that occurred to me recently is reversing this question: can we say anything about what teams aren't going to the Super Bowl, based, say, on their win-loss records from last year?

Based on that, I put together the following table of Super Bowl winners, along with their record from the season before, and what (if anything) they did in the postseason. Here's the result:

SB	Winner	W-L-T prev Year	prev year	Result prev Year
1	Packers	10-3-1	1965	won NFL CG
2	Packers	12-2	1966	won NFL CG, SB
3	Jets	8-5-1	1967	out of playoffs
4	Cheifs	12-2	1968	lost to Raiders in DV
5	Colts	8-5-1	1969	out of playoffs
6	Cowboys	10-4	1970	lost to Colts in SB
7	Dolphins	10-3-1	1971	lost to Cowboys in SB
8	Dolphins	14-0	1972	won SB
9	Steelers	10-4	1973	lost to Raiders in DV
10	Steelers	10-3-1	1974	won SB
11	Raiders	11-3	1975	lost to Steelers in CG
12	Cowboys	11-3	1976	lost to Rams in DV
13	Steelers	9-5	1977	lost to Broncos in DV
14	Steelers	14-2	1978	won SB
15	Raiders	9-7	1979	out of playoffs
16	49ers	6-10	1980	out of playoffs
17	Redskins	8-8	1981	out of playoffs
18	Raiders	8-1	1982	lost to Jets in DV
19	49ers	10-6	1983	lost to Redskins in CG
20	Bears	10-6	1984	lost to 49ers in CG
21	Giants	10-6	1985	lost to Bears in DV
22	Redskins	12-4	1986	lost to Giants in CG
23	49ers	13-2	1987	lost to Vikings in DV
24	49ers	10-6	1988	won SB
25	Giants	12-4	1989	lost to Rams in DV
26	Redskins	10-6	1990	lost to 49ers in DV
27	Cowboys	11-5	1991	lost to Lions in DV
28	Cowboys	13-3	1992	won SB
29	49ers	10-6	1993	lost to Cowboys in CG
30	Cowboys	12-4	1994	lost to 49ers in CG
31	Packers	11-5	1995	lost to Cowboys in DV
32	Broncos	13-3	1996	lost to Jags in DV
33	Broncos	12-4	1997	won SB
34	Rams	4-12	1998	out of playoffs
35	Ravens	8-8	1999	out of playoffs
36	Patriots	5-11	2000	out of playoffs
37	Buccaneers	9-7	2001	lost to Eagles in WC
38	Patriots	9-7	2002	out of playoffs
39	Patriots	14-2	2003	Won SB
40	Steelers	15-1	2004	lost to Pats in CG
41	Colts	14-2	2005	lost to Steelers in DV
42	Giants	8-8	2006	lost to Eagles in WC
43	Steelers	10-6	2007	lost to Jags in WC
44	Saints	8-8	2008	out of playoffs
45	Packers	11-5	2009	lost to Cards in WC
46	Giants	10-6	2010	out of playoffs
47	Ravens	12-4	2011	lost to Pats in CG

A number of things are worth observing from this table:

• Even in the old, 14-game season days, it was pretty common for a Super Bowl winner to have had double-digit wins the previous year.

• With three exceptions, nobody has gone from a losing season to winning the Super Bowl the following year.

• Besides a losing record, those three exceptions have another point of correlation:
  • 1981 was the first year Joe Montana started full-time for the 49ers
  • In 1999, Kurt Warner took over as quarterback after Trent Green tore his ACL in a preseason game..
  • In 2001, Drew Bledsoe was injured in week 2, making way for Tom Brady to take over that starting job.

• So, if your team had double-digit losses last year, don't look for them to be hoisting the Lombardi trophy next February (unless you've got a Montana/Warner/Brady type guy waiting in the wings).

• On the other hand, there's a handful of 7- and 8-loss teams there, so coming off a near-500 season isn't a total deal-breaker.

• Also note that while many of Super Bowl winners made it at least to the divisional round the previous season, it's not also a deal-breaker to be coming off a season out of the playoffs.

• In fact, if you look at the last 14 winners (going back to the Rams in Super Bowl 34), only 4 teams made it to the divisional round the previous season.

  I'm not really sure what, if anything, that streak means. But if it's going to continue next February, your candidate group is: Steelers, Giants, Cowboys (at least 8 wins but out of the playoffs), and Bengals, Colts, Vikings, Redskins (lost in the Wildcard round).

  I would say, of that group, the Giants, the Redskins (as long as RG3 stays healthy) and maybe the Steelers (if Roethlisberger and Polamalu can stay healthy) have the best chance to win out.

• But, if you look at the teams that made it to the Divisional Round last year (Patriots, Broncos, Texans, Ravens, Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Seahawks), there's some pretty stiff competition. If I was going to pick this season's Super Bowl winner, I'd be hard pressed to go outside that group.

So, apparently the Packers signed Vince Young to a 1-year deal today

NFL Pythagorean Projection 2012 -> 2013

The start of preseason is only a couple weeks away now, so it's time for this year's edition of Pythagorean Projection!

Team	Projected Wins	Note
Chiefs	2.6	new HC, QB
Jaguars	3.4	new HC
Eagles	4.0	new HC
Raiders	4.3	new QB
Cardinals	4.8	New HC, QB
Titans	4.8	make or break for Jake Locker
Jets	5.4	new QB?
Bills	5.8	New HC, QB
Browns	6.2	New HC
Lions	6.5	Some coaching changes
Rams	6.6
Dolphins	7.1
Colts	7.2	"New" HC
Cowboys	7.4	new DC
Panthers	7.8
Buccaneers	7.9
Chargers	8.0	New HC
Saints	8.1	S. Payton back
Steelers	8.6	Can Roethlisberger stay healthy?
Vikings	8.8	Can AP repeat?
Redskins	9.1	RG3 coming back from injury
Ravens	9.4	Free agent exodus
Bengals	9.9
Giants	10.0
Texans	10.1
Packers	10.3
Bears	10.8	New HC
Falcons	11.0
49ers	11.3
Broncos	12.3
Seahawks	12.4
Patriots	12.4

Comments:

• It's not going out on much of a limb to predict that the Chiefs will do better than 2 wins, but Andy Reid is the probably best head coach they've had at least since Dick Vermeil.

• I have to wonder how Chip Kelly will do in the NFL. The Pac-12 isn't exactly known for their defenses, and even the best college defense is not at the same level as the NFL. I'll believe his offensive schemes can work at the pro level when I see it happening.

• As mentioned previously, the Colts stats in 2012 were really not impressive, and that's reflected in their 7.2 win projection here. With Bruce Arians gone, and the whole emotional push of Chuck Pagano's situation pretty much over, the Colts could be in for a major let-down this year.

• The Ravens lost a lot of key talent after their Super Bowl victory. They didn't exactly power their way into the playoffs last year, and it won't take much of a slide for them to miss the playoffs entirely in 2013.

• The Seahawks enjoy perhaps the strongest home-field advantage of any team in the NFL right now. The bad news is that seems to cover some serious problems that manifested in their rather dismal 3-5 road record last year. They've got a pretty stout road schedule in 2013, and they can't afford to let any easy ones slip away if they're to make it to 12 wins overall.

• The Patriots have won double-digit games 11 of the last 12 seasons, made the playoffs 10 of those seasons, including 5 trips to the Super Bowl (and, of course, 3 wins). That's really an extraordinary success for the free-agent, salary cap era. However you feel about them, Belichick and Brady have to go down as one of the best HC/QB teams in the history of the game, and both will be easy first ballot hall-of-famers when the time comes.

2013 Navigation and Index

This post is an index of posts I plan to make during the 2013 season, including the various weekly picks, pick results, and power rankings. It's primarily for my own benefit (so I can easily find stuff when I want to refer/link to it). But you're welcome to use it as and when you see fit.

As usual, new entries will be added and existing entries will be linkified as new posts are made.

2012 Navigation

Offseason, Preseason, and Historical Data Posts

• Pythagorean Projection 2012-2013
• So, apparently the Packers signed Vince Young to a 1-year deal today
• So. Who's not going to win the Super Bowl?

NFL 2012 Season

Week 1	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 2	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 3	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Week 4	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 5	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 6	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 7	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 8	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 9	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 10	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 11	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 12	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 13	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 14	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 15	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 16	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Week 17	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results	APR vs. ESPN
Wildcard	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Divisional	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Championship	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results
Super Bowl	Picks	Power Rankings	Pick Results

Wrapup

• APR's Upsets
• Pythagorean projection vs. reality

NFL: Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)

Joe Flacco had a hot-and-cold regular season. In the 9 games he had a passer rating of 83 or better, the Ravens were 8-1. The problem was he had 7 games with a passer rating of 76.5 or worse, and the Ravens were 2-5 in those games (the two wins coming against the Chiefs and the Leftwich-lead Steelers).

In the playoffs, Flacco got on an amazing hot streak, passing for 1140 yards, 11 touchdowns, and a 117.1 passer rating. There defense wasn't really that amazing (including a couple games they gave up 31 or more points), but with Flacco playing lights out, they just needed to be "OK", and they were.

For the 49ers, defense has been an issue for a while now. In their first 13 games, the allowed an average of 14.2 points per game. Since then (and including the playoffs), they've allowed an average of 29.7 points per game—more than double the earlier average.

Colin Kaepernick I think did OK, including taking a team that was down by 3 scores in the 3rd quarter and getting them back into the game. There were some points in the game (including that interception and the 49ers final possession) where his inexperience showed. But this was a known factor going into the playoffs. I think if the 49ers defense had played as well as they had for their first 13 games, the Super Bowl never would've come down to one last drive to get a go-ahead touchdown.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	0	-	1			6	-	5		54.5%
SRS	0	-	1			7	-	4		63.6%
Line	0	-	1			8	-	3		72.7%

Epilogue

That's it for the 2012 season. I'm kind of burned out on blogging about football right now, so I think I'm going to take a pass on the rest of the season wrap-up posts, and let fspi go dark for the off season.

I may do some off-season stuff in a few months if my interest rebounds, but if not, I'll be back in July with the Pythagorean Projection post for the upcoming season. Until then, thanks for reading, and I'll see you next fall.

NFL: Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Broncos	1.0815 (LW × 1.0138)	13-4	Bye
2 (↑2)	Ravens	1.0686 (LW × 1.0367)	14-6	Won by 3 @ 49ers
3 (↓1)	Seahawks	1.0557 (LW × 0.9960)	12-6	Bye
4 (↓1)	49ers	1.0348 (LW × 0.9830)	13-5-1	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
5 (↑1)	Bengals	0.9884 (LW × 1.0109)	10-7	Bye
6 (↓1)	Redskins	0.9869 (LW × 1.0083)	10-7	Bye
7 (-)	Patriots	0.9728 (LW × 1.0017)	13-5	Bye
8 (-)	Packers	0.9626 (LW × 0.9961)	12-6	Bye
9 (-)	Falcons	0.9574 (LW × 0.9989)	14-4	Bye
10 (-)	Giants	0.9458 (LW × 1.0073)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Panthers	0.9399 (LW × 1.0050)	7-9	Bye
12 (-)	Vikings	0.9253 (LW × 0.9968)	10-7	Bye
13 (↑1)	Steelers	0.9235 (LW × 1.0143)	8-8	Bye
14 (↓1)	Saints	0.9175 (LW × 1.0019)	7-9	Bye
15 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9006 (LW × 1.0070)	8-8	Bye
16 (↓1)	Bears	0.8993 (LW × 0.9959)	10-6	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8698 (LW × 0.9947)	7-8-1	Bye
18 (↑1)	Colts	0.8686 (LW × 1.0048)	11-6	Bye
19 (↓1)	Texans	0.8680 (LW × 1.0019)	13-5	Bye
20 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8627 (LW × 1.0104)	7-9	Bye
21 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.8564 (LW × 1.0029)	7-9	Bye
22 (↑1)	Browns	0.8405 (LW × 1.0121)	5-11	Bye
23 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8289 (LW × 0.9976)	7-9	Bye
24 (-)	Bills	0.7900 (LW × 0.9984)	6-10	Bye
25 (↑2)	Raiders	0.7783 (LW × 1.0098)	4-12	Bye
26 (↓1)	Lions	0.7740 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
27 (↓1)	Titans	0.7708 (LW × 0.9998)	6-10	Bye
28 (-)	Jets	0.7663 (LW × 0.9992)	6-10	Bye
29 (-)	Cardinals	0.7518 (LW × 0.9941)	5-11	Bye
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7474 (LW × 1.0054)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.7256 (LW × 1.0097)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6623 (LW × 0.9998)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• The Ravens continue the recent theme that it doesn't matter if you have a bad regular season, if you can get hot in the playoffs.

• Hard to argue against Joe Flacco as MVP, especially if you consider the Ravens' playoff run as a whole. The Ravens scored at least 24 points in every one of their playoff games. And won, in spite of giving up 35 to the Broncos, and 31 to the 49ers.

• Thanks to the 49ers' 17-point 3rd quarter, the streak of Super Bowls within 1 score in the 4th quarter continues. (Bucs/Raiders was the last Super Bowl that was not.)